Bubble Keeper Week: Last Place Teams

Brad Hayward

2023-07-23

As an added article for Bubble Keeper Week, I thought there should be some extra love chipped in for a player from the bottom teams from each division. Too often, our projections for each upcoming season reflect the past – and we know in our rational moments that change is inevitable. The Golden Knights missed the playoffs in 2021-22, remember?

Starting, then, in the Atlantic:  Sean Monahan.  It feels like Monahan is over the hill, but he's only 28.  Signed to a prove-it $1.985M one-year contract, he's projected to be a bottom-six center, playing apart from the Canadiens' top wings and top power play.   Monahan's injury history sounds like a surgeon's dream: two ruptured back discs, two groin surgeries, both hips operated upon, a wrist bone fracture, and a broken foot. He was traded to Montreal last summer to make cap space for the Flames, while rehabbing his right hip labrum repair, with questions then as to whether he'd ever be the same player.  

But let's look just a little deeper. Despite all of the above, he averaged 78 games per season through his first seven injury-plagued years, even including the Covid-shortened 2019-20 schedule. And he's consistently produced at a 55–60-point pace, with one season (2018-19) over the point-per-game mark. For Montreal, he had 17 points in 25 contests.  

Why could he be your sleeper? Health. It takes a year to fully recover from labrum surgery, and his back issues seems like ancient history. It would take just a small bit of imagination – or a couple injuries – to see Monahan centering the Habs' second line, mentoring Juraj Slafkovsky, and hitting 60+ points and 600+ faceoff wins. 

Moving to the Metropolitan Division, I chose Boone Jenner for an entirely different set of reasons. The Blue Jackets' 30-year-old captain, taken in the second round back in 2011, has played for only one NHL franchise – rare these days – and is a multi-category staple in banger leagues.   His offense could take the next step, with Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine, and then an avalanche of young talent, but only until he inevitably is pushed down to his natural roster position at third-line center.  To be fair, Jenner wouldn't be a 1-C on any other NHL team. 

But this year?  Columbus needs the stability, and pushing Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson, Cole Sillinger, Yegor Chinakhov, and Kirill Marchenko – all at 22 years old or younger – to unrealistic expectations this season isn't wise.  The other variable in my reasoning is the return of Zach Werenski, and the additions of Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov. The puck may actually be in the offensive zone a bit more. 

This may be Jenner's best year for scoring opportunity, along with his stuffing stat sheets of hits, faceoffs, blocks, and TOI. He'll drop in drafts as always, but the shiny toys might need more seasoning.  

Moving west, the Central losers were intentionally (?) the Chicago Blackhawks. That April victory over Pittsburgh that could've cost them Connor Bedard probably didn't make management happy until the lottery card flipped their way.  But I'll obviously not choose Bedard as my bubble guy, it's Taylor Raddysh.  Raddysh was the jewel received from Tampa Bay in the trade for Brandon Hagel.  He's 25 years old, though with only 152 NHL games played, he'll hit his 200-game breakout threshold in mid-season. 

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Chicago's top line projects to be Taylor Hall and Lukas Reichel flanking Bedard, so having a second line centered by Tyler Johnson is a wild card at best.  But I don't doubt the talent here, and the first lineup shuffle that the Hawks try might be to see Raddysh on the top line, or at least the top power play. Don't forget this guy in a keeper or dynasty league. 

And lastly, the Pacific.  Ryan Strome was signed as a free agent last summer, paid handsomely at $5 million annually for five years, and his season was a huge disappointment, even for a team that we "knew" would struggle. (I put "knew" into quotation marks, since we also knew that Boston would overwhelm the Florida Panthers in Round 1, yeah…) 

His brother Dylan thrived in Washington, but Ryan's 41 points and (-30) +/- were poor value.  But even if Strome can't drive a top line, he may not have to. The young studs on this roster will drive play.  Without expectations this season that Anaheim finishes above anyone, they'll be a better team anyway. Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry a year more mature, and Mason McTavish plus Leo Carlsson gaining experience –  Anaheim can be a bottom-three team in 2023-24, and yet Ryan Strome is due to statistically bounce back, and lead by example. A projection of 60 points is a reasonable estimate, and dual eligibility (C/RW) in Yahoo leagues helps. If your league does count plus-minus as a category, though… ouch.  

Most of us draft in keeper leagues to win. Duh. But one-year fantasy rebuilds do happen, and for those managers who look even one year ahead to 2024-25, each of these last place teams won't stay there. Write it down. As for my own fantasy leagues, as a late/last pick I'd consider Raddysh if I was hoping to keep him for three seasons, and Monahan if my team was championship-ready.  

Enjoy summer.  These drafts will be upon us soon. 

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