Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Yes, I realize that the monthly mailbag is normally scheduled to appear this week; however, it's Bubble Keeper Week here at DobberHockey, and of all the Roos Lets Loose columns this one lends itself best to the format. The mailbag and Goldipucks are swapping weeks, with the mailbag to appear next week instead. Who are the three Bubble Keepers that will go under the Goldipucks microscope? Samuel Girard, Owen Tippett, and William Karlsson. As usual, your task is to guess which were too hot and too cold in 2022-23, plus whose play was "just right" and then to read on to see how well you know your Bubble Keepers.

Samuel Girard (76 GP, 6G, 31A, 119 SOG, 21:30 TOI, 8 PPPts, 1:13 PP, 23.2% PP%)

The former Pred debuted in the NHL at age 19, only to be traded to the Avs that same season. Just once in his first two campaigns did he post one point per every three games played. In his third, coinciding with his 200-game breakout threshold, he rose to nearly a point per every other game pace, only to outdo that in 2020-21 to the tune of 32 points in only 48 games played. Since then, however, he's been back beneath the point per every other game mark. Was Girard a one year fluke, or might he rise again? More and more it's looking like Girard's best season has already come and gone, and he might even begin to do worse going forward.

The good news when looking at Girard's stats are his SOG rate per game hasn't dropped. The bad news is it was never good to begin with, even in his 55-point pace season, at 1.6 per game. How rare is it for a defenseman to score at that pace with that few SOG per game? Well, out of 422 instances of defensemen playing 41+ games while scoring at a point per every other game level dating back to 2010-11, just three instances were by d-men who averaged fewer SOG per game than 1.6, and none of the three scored at even a 50-point pace. The fact that Girard is still not shooting more is already a major strike against him.

Another issue is his IPP on the PP last season was 100%, meaning he had a point on every PPG scored while he was on the ice with the man advantage. What was career average going into last season? Try 58.7%, so he should have had four or at most five PPPts last season, rather than eight. His PP time was also likely inflated to begin with, due to all the games missed by Bowen Byram.

That brings us to another point, which is due to the emergence of Devon Toews and the trajectory of Bowen Byram, Girard is fourth on the PP pecking order. If all are healthy he likely doesn't sniff a minute of PP time, meaning his scoring should drop in that area even more than just via his PPIPP coming back to earth. That's not good considering 2022-23 already saw him take the ice for a higher percentage of PK minutes than PP minutes. In fact, his percentage of PP minutes has dropped every season since his 55-point campaign, so it was already headed in the wrong direction before Devon Toews and Bowen Byram made their respective marks.

Moreover, the effect of those two, plus, of course, Cale Makar, has also resulted in Girard's OZ% dropping, as in his 55-point pace season it was 62.5%, while for 2022-23 it was only 51.2%. I can't see that improving either, as Toews is tethered to Makar and Byram will be looked upon more so for blueline offense than Girard.

I wish I could say things get better from there, but they don't, as Girard's secondary assist percentage for 2022-23 was a career high of 64,5%, meaning nearly two-thirds of his assists were secondary. This after averaging 46.5% over his career prior to last season. What that means is he likely lucked into a handful of added assists, chipping away even further at his scoring total.

Some have contended that Girard could be traded, at which point his scoring could return to past heights. But first of all, if the Avs haven't moved him yet I'm not seeing it as likely that they will. Additionally, it's not like Girard's SOG rate would increase on another team, as although he might get better deployment, the team is unlikely to have as much of an up tempo offense as the Avs, negating any likely boost in shooting/scoring.

Here's another thing – Girard's 55-point pace season came when he played only 48 games. He's put together hot streaks since then, including last season, when he ended with 26 points in 41 games. But if he plays an entire season, he simply cannot stay hot enough to produce anywhere close to how he did when he caught lightning in a bottle in 2020-21.

Girard's 2020-21 seemed like him starting to ascend to heights he experienced in juniors. But in truth it was a scoring burst that occurred over barely half a season. Since then his SOG rate has stayed low and his PP minutes have eroded. Things don't project to get better, as he's clearly fourth on the Avs' rearguard pecking order plus if he hasn't been traded already chances are he won't be. Given his PPIPP and secondary assist rate, he was actually TOO HOT for 2022-23. If the entire Avs' blueline is healthy, I have a hard time seeing Giard able to top even 35 points, so his rating is 8.0.

Owen Tippett (81 GP, 32G, 51A, 233 SOG, 20:41 TOI, 31 PPPts, 3:59 PP, 73.0% PP%)

A former tenth overall pick, Tippett ended up playing three more seasons in the OHL and one in the AHL – succeeding at every level – before a 45-game stint with Florida in 2020-21. Tippett fared decent in those 45 contests, to the tune of 18 points. But Florida must not have liked what they saw because they traded him during the 2021-22 season, one in which Tippett played 18 more games but managed just three additional points and even spent some time back in the AHL, leading some to wonder if he was heading toward bust territory. With the Flyers in 2022-23, however, Tippett scored at a 52-point pace, potting 27 goals in the process. Was this just a result of Tippett playing for his career and taking advantage of injuries, or might he be this good or even better? From what I can see, the Flyers had a gem fall into their lap, as Tippett looks like he's primed for even greater success.

Looking at 2022-23 for Tippett, a picture is painted of a player hitting his stride. His SOG rate was 2.41 in Q1, 2.47 in Q2, 3.15 in Q3, and 3.90 in Q4. Yes, his ice time was a full three minutes higher in Q4 than it was in any other quarter; however, it was a positive chicken and egg situation where either he was playing better and thus played more or he played more and thus played better. Whatever the explanation, Tippett's SOG rate spiked and that is certainly a good sign.

A quick look at Tippett's career games played shows he ended 2022-23 at 192, which not only helps explain his great Q4 performance (16 points in 20 games, 15 in his last 15) but also suggests he can continue his upward trajectory as he hits and passes his 200-game breakout threshold.

What also is encouraging is Tippett did this despite his lowest career offensive zone starting percentage, lending more credibility to the output. Although Tippett's 61.3% overall IPP was not outstanding, this is a player who previously had an IPP of 85.7%, so we know he is capable of having offense flow through him. Also, his secondary assist rate was only 50%, meaning it wasn't elevated enough to suggest any concerns.

Although Tippett only had 12 PPPts in 77 games for 2022-23, two-thirds of those were PPGs. Despite the fact he took the ice for only 51.1% of his teams man advantage minutes overall, in more than a third of his last 30 games that figure was above 70%, which is important since all but two of his PPPts came when his PP ice time share was 60%+. Looking just at PPGs, his eight put him tied for 57th among forwards despite his PP minutes ranking him 121st. And many a player is able to get PP assists without special skill; but having the ability to pot PPGs not only is more difficult but when you're as successful as Tippett was last season no wonder he got more PP time as the campaign wore on.

Tippett being Philly also is key, as he already shined while skating last season mostly apart from the best Flyer, namely Travis Konecny, who likewise plays right wing. The team was also without its top line center in Sean Couturier. Looking to 2023-24, Tippett might be separated from Couturier and Konecny; however, if that is the case he should be skating with Morgan Frost, who also will be hitting his breakout threshold and likewise finished strong, in his case with 17 points in his final 20 games. Plus, Tippett's PPG prowess should mean he gets a coveted spot on PP1 even with the return of Couturier as well as Cam Atkinson. If defenses are keying on the Konecny/Couturier line at ES, that will give the Tippett and Frost unit an easier time hitting the scoresheet.

What about player comparables? For 2022-23, other than Tippett there were only three pure wingers who were age 24 or younger and also had at least 25 goals and 20 assists while averaging 3+ SOG per game – Jason Robertson, Brady Tkachuk, and Matt Boldy. Two were point per game scorers, while the other has had two 63+ point scoring pace seasons and has yet to hit his breakout threshold. So yeah, pretty nice company I'd say.

A year ago, Tippett had fallen off the fantasy radar of most everyone except for those in the deepest of leagues. But what a difference a season can make, as Tippett shined in 2022-23. And we can see from his PPG prowess, SOG trends, and player comparables, Tippett might only be scratching the surface. That's why Tippett's 2022-23 was TOO COLD, and he gets a rating of 2.0, as I see him as a 30/30 downside player, with a chance at 35+ goals if indeed he lands a gig on Philly's PP1.

William Karlsson (82 GP, 14G, 39A, 160 SOG, 17:28 TOI, 9 PPPts, 1:41 PP, 40.0% PP%)

Pop quiz – how long ago was it when Karlsson posted 43 goals and 78 points? Would you believe way back in 20217-18? Since then, however, he's finished with a 50- to 60-point pace in all but one season, namely 2021-22 where he dropped to 43. Now 30 years old, what does the future hold for Karlsson? The data suggests more of what we've seen in recent seasons.

There's good news and bad news when looking at Karlsson's trends. His SH% not only has dropped every season since that fateful 2017-18 campaign, but the last two campaigns it hasn't even reached double digits. Yet whereas 2021-22 saw his SH finish at 8.9% but him only scoring at a 43-point pace, he managed to rise to a 53 points pace despite a downtick in his SH% to 8.8%.

Is SH% that important? It is if you shoot as little as Karlsson. Looking at wingers in 2022-23 who averaged fewer than two SOG per game (Karlsson was at 1.95) and who also did not hit double digits in SH%, no one else managed to score at a rate of even a point per every other game.

So you're probably saying, why doesn't this mean Karlsson was too hot? Because his IPP remained strong at 68.8%, marking the fourth time in six seasons as a Knight of it being at least 66%. Make no mistake – Karlsson is not a sniper at this point and likely never will be one again. But due to him keeping a spot in the top six and his solid overall IPP, he can seemingly be a unicorn in terms of production despite not shooting much and his SH% being quite low.

The other thing to note about 2021-22 is that Karlsson's PP IPP was 23.1%, which is jaw-droppingly low. Had it merely been the average of his other prior seasons in Vegas, namely 60.2%, that would have meant five more PPPts, raising his scoring rate to 49 points, or nearly within his normal range. For 2022-23, his PP IPP was right at that 60.2% average, meaning his production in that area was in line with what should have been expected.

Out of curiosity, let's look at other instances of wingers who scored 40+ goals despite taking fewer than 200 SOG in the same season. To underscore how rare of a feat it was, there's just one other instance (Brayden Point in 2018-19) in the last 30 seasons. Point has since showed he was not a one year wonder, but the fact he's the only other one to accomplish the feat doesn't give any more hope of Karlsson suddenly entering a time machine to recapture his 2017-18 magic again.

Just as Karlsson's SH% has dropped and he's been able to maintain his scoring rate, it's a similar story for his ice time, which has dropped three seasons in a row, collectively by about 90 seconds. Still, Karlsson's SOG rate has stayed similar, and he never really cemented a spot on PP1; so losing PP minutes has not been an issue, especially since even being on the second PP unit his IPP on the PP is solid enough to produce the number of PPPts needed to keep his scoring at a similar rate.

Something else that might go overlooked but shouldn't is that Karlsson is second among all forwards in SHP dating back to 2017-18, with 21, or more than three a season and he matched his career best of five in 2022-23. It's not heaps of points, but he's proven more than adequately that he is one of a precious few NHLers who predictably post SHPs.

If you've hung onto Karlsson since his 2017-18 season, you've no doubt been disappointed. But if you stop to assess the situation, his production has mostly been stable, thanks to him sporting a solid IPP at ES and on the PP and keeping his SOG and SHP rates the same even as he's shed ice time. Given the system that exists in Vegas, and Karlsson's "spot" in the top six I see no reason to predict him to do better or worse, meaning his 2022-23 was JUST RIGHT. He gets a rating of 5.0, as he should produce at right around a 50- to 55-point pace perennially.

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Questions for Mailbag

Next week's mailbag is full, but it's never too early to send me questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.