Welcome back to me, and thanks to the Dobber writers that stepped up in my absence, really nice to have the support. Now, after a much-needed three-week vacation, I'm back to my normal Ramblings coverage. There's a lot of thoughts I have to get caught up on between post-draft, free agency, trades, and more. I'll save the majority of it for my two Ramblings next week (covering for Ian on the Friday) because this is bubble keeper week! There are multiple reader questions and a few of my own teams to comb through.

First though, stick taps to Patrice Bergeron for an exceptional career. He helped me to a couple of fantasy hockey championships over the years, and was on teams that beat me in the finals on many other occasions.

A statement from Patrice Bergeron.

📰: https://t.co/UWDGPWtDX9 pic.twitter.com/XNrczEVnJO

— Boston Bruins (@NHLBruins) July 25, 2023

Him leaving leaves a hole in the hearts of Bruins fans, a gaping hole in the Bruins lineup, and a few of us fantasy general managers scrambling for replacements. At least he waited until bubble keeper week to retire, so now we can firmly saw that Pavel Zacha becomes the top centre for the Bruins and is likely a certain keeper except for more shallow formats.

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My first team I'll review is a 12-team league setup with large rosters, H2H with G/A/PPP/SOG/Hit/Blk/FOW + W/Sv/GAA/Sv%.

We keep six forwards, four defence, one goalie, and an optional one prospect.

I missed the playoffs by a hair last year as the defending champ, so there was a bit of a re-tool, and I am well set up with picks now for the re-draft. That means my keepers will likely be in a good range age-wise, while still setting me up for a competitive contention window.

My six forwards are pretty set with Jack Eichel, Filip Forsberg, Travis Konecny, Alex Tuch, Brayden Point, and Josh Norris.

Norris would be the one I could replace, but his upside on a potent Senators team is likely too much for me to drop him unless an excellent option came available in a trade. Norris is a gamble though, after playing only eight games last year due to a shoulder injury. In those eight games he stumbled to three points, after putting up 55 in 66 games with 2.6 shots per game the season prior. He's still most of a season away from his breakout threshold and could still hit 60+ points this year before a bigger breakout to 75+ in the following year.

The main issue though remains the shoulder, which we have seen hinder some players. However, with modern medicine doing bigger and better things, especially for athletes who have access to everything they need, it becomes less of a worry. Over the last number of years we have seen players nearly miss a full season due to shoulder repairs, including Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Vladimir Tarasenko. I have lost out on value with both as a result of selling low on them, and I'm hoping to make up on buying a little low on Norris to counter-balance it.

My last few cuts are Brayden Schenn, Jonathan Marchessault, and Scott Laughton.

Schenn is a 65-point player with exceptional peripheral contributions, and has been a keeper for me the last few years. However, his style of play, his age, and his team make him someone that there just isn't enough confidence in to be able to keep him as one of my six forwards. I think Norris out-points him next year, and I feel that I could re-draft Schenn later, or get more in a trade for Norris.

Marchessault is an intriguing option, coming off his Conn Smyth win, but he's another player getting into his 30s, coming off a long playoff run, and doesn't have the same peripheral production as Schenn. Of the two here I would keep Schenn in this setup, but I have more faith in Marchessault hitting 65 points, at least for next year.

Laughton was a multi-category beast, racking up more shots, hits, blocks, and faceoff wins than Schenn, while putting up a respectable point-every-other-game pace. It's not enough to be a keeper in my league, but in a deeper league he's certainly worth a look. His 18 points in 21 games in Q2 last year show there is some streaky offensive upside too.

Moving to the defence, I have Darnell Nurse, Seth Jones, K'Andre Miller, and Jeff Petry (could be replaced due to age, but still productive at the moment). Final cuts are Arber Xhekaj, Torey Krug, and J.J. Moser. My current set can all pace for at least 40 points, while adding a ton of peripherals. I maintain that in this league (usually the top 90-100 defencmen are owned) I need to have all of my defence putting up a combined Shot+Hit+Blk total of over five. It's a great line to have for peripherals leagues, and helps you balance the production.

Krug has the highest offensive upside, but no peripherals, and a lot of risk. Tom Collins hit the nail on the head with Krug in his blurb from Monday, so I won't re-hash it here. Xhekaj's hit numbers have him meet my minimum peripherals requirement, but he doesn't bring any offence, so he's re-draftable except in the deepest of leagues. Moser flies under the radar a little, already as a 30-point defenceman through 60 career games, with lots of upside for more. The problem is the Coyotes now also have Juuso Valimaki, and Sean Durzi, and Victor Soderstrom… and they are rumoured to be the landing spot for Matt Dumba (who I don't have a lot of faith in but would eat up more offensive minutes).

In net, I'm working on acquiring a goalie, because my current goalies on my roster are Dustin Wolf, Yaroslav Askarov, and Mads Sogaard. Sogaard might have had some dark-horse upside this year if the Sens hadn't brought in Jonas Korpisalo, but the big contract quashes that hope. Between Askarov and Wolf, I think they are both a year away from meaningful games, so ideally I would keep one and stash him in my prospect slot, while using the other as bait for a better goalie.

Of the two Wolf seems a little further along, though Askarov has the higher eventual upside. Right now, I am hoping for a Jacob Markstrom or Dan Vladar trade, so that I can keep both goalies, and draft another one to pair with Wolf as my NHL tandem for the year.

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My other keeper league has a little more flexibility to it. It is a 10-team league with average-sized rosters, keeping any six players. H2H with G, A, +/-, PPP, Sog, Hits – W, GAA, Sv%, SO.

My list of relevant players includes: Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Jason Robertson, Erik Karlsson, Jack Hughes, Elias Pettersson, Roman Josi, Andrei Svechnikov, Igor Shesterkin.

I have nine players here I could keep, and I certainly would prefer not to have to drop any of them. Generally, I am not a huge fan of keeping goalies, but there is no way I could drop Shesterkin. That means he is going to be the first player I look to trade, maybe with Elias Pettersson in a deal for someone along the lines of Leon Draisaitl or David Pastrnak.

Otherwise, I think the age of Erik Karlsson and Roman Josi knock them down the rankings a little. Both are 33, and two of the highest-scoring defencemen in the league. However, they have questions about their teams, and how long each can continue to keep up their exceptional point totals. When there are other great options, it might be best to get off a year early rather than a year too late here.

If I can't make a trade, and I end up keeping Shesterkin while cutting the two defencemen, there will have to be one cut from my six forwards. Four of the players have 100+ point upside, and another one of those players is the unicorn Brady Tkachuk. That leaves Andrei Svechnikov, who may be an exceptional player, but isn't quite on the same level as the rest of the keepers. He's a top-40 player in redrafts right now, but the rest of the keepers are top-30 players.

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Now onto some reader questions:

What does the Carolina PP look like now with both Burns and DeAngelo locked up?

What round do you draft each in?

— Pat Brown (@brownie1263) July 25, 2023

This is a fun question, because it is very simple, very relevant, and super easy to research for. Both players ran the power play for the team over the last two years, while the other was not on the team, and the majority of the players and coaches around them have remained the same. Let's compare the two right-shot defencemen.

Brent Burns ran the Carolina power play in 2022/23, to the tune of an overall success rate of 20% for the team. Burns played three minutes of power play time per game, which was about 58% of the available time. His power play IPP was 74%, and he's very much so a volume shooter at 3.1 shots per game.

Tony DeAngelo returns after a brief stop in Philadelphia, where he continued to thrive with the man-advantage. In 2021/22, DeAngelo ran the power play for the Flyers, to the tune of and overall success rate of 22% for the team. He played three minutes of power play time per game, which was about 67% of the available time. His power play IPP was 62%, and he shoots a little less than Burns does, at 2.5 shots per game.

What we can see there, is that the team had more power play minutes, and was slightly more effective in them with DeAngelo than Burns. Working against DeAngelo is the contract, and the fact that he is generally sheltered less at even strength, meaning the incumbent Burns may be put onto the top unit first because of familiarity, politics, and the fact he's less versatile at evens, so the team benefits more from having him play more on the power play and less at even strength.

There does seem to be a bit of a misconception out there than Carolina is one of those teams that splits their power play units, but that could not be further from the truth. They run their top unit out every chance they get, which means getting this right could make or break some fantasy seasons.

At this point, I'm taking Burns of the two, which would likely leave the second unit with both DeAngelo and Dmitry Orlov. The Hurricanes defence core notched a combined 34 power play points last season. I would say that we would see a similar amount this coming year, likely split up as: Burns – 20, DeAngelo – 10, Orlov – five.

As for where to draft them, I'll assume this is a single-year, points-only re-draft, and say that based on the above, I would take Burns somewhere in the 70-100 range, and DeAngelo in the 125-150 range. This likely means that neither will end up on my fantasy squad this season, which I'm fine with. I'll let someone else take the gamble on Burns' age, DeAngelo's distractions, and figuring out which one consistently gets the better deployment. There's even a possibility it's neither and it goes to Orlov as the new FA signing if the team decides they want a left-shot on the top unit instead.

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After a Stanley Cup win and a new contract signed, is Adin Hill a keeper in a 2 goalie starter salary cap league? My other two goalies are Oettinger and Saros.

So I guess my real question is – which 2 are the better keepers out of those 3 goalies.

— Dwight Howe (@dwighthowe6) July 25, 2023

Adin Hill had a great run, but I think he's more Antti Niemi or Jordan Binnington than he is Jonathan Quick or Mark-Andre Fleury, so no, I don't think he's someone I look to as a top-20 goalie next year, and ideally you're only spending decent keeper capitol on a top-10 goalie, or a bargain guy. Hill is unfortunately neither. Out of him and Logan Thompson, I actually expect the latter to be the starter in the second half, and that's where the real bargain value lies.

Juuse Saros and Jake Oettinger are both certainly top-10 keeper goalies, and there will be no argument from me if you have both in your top-five. Don't over think this just because of the shiny new Stanley Cup ring.

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Realistic expectation for Jared McCann? 40 goals last year but a 19% SH%. Can he hit that 40+ plateau again?

— Sean Crocker 🇺🇦🌻 (@Seany_Hockey) July 25, 2023

Two of McCann's three most productive seasons have been with Seattle the last two years, so while there are some overall red flags for him sustaining last year's numbers, it does seem like Seattle is doing something right to get the best out of him.

The biggest problem is that Seattle is a deep team, which means that McCann still only sees 16 minutes of ice time per game, and percentage of that is even short-handed ice time. His shooting percentage was also way above his career norm, and a career high, as Sean noted. If we use his average from the past 3-4 years, then it seems like a 15% shooting percentage is about the right baseline for McCann. That would have meant 32 goals instead of the 40 that he managed last year.

McCann has done it once, and he did so only playing 16 minutes per game, and with 16 power play points. If his power play deployment, and overall usage go up, that could offset any decline in shooting percentage.

That being said, I think the best bet is that McCann finishes in that 30-35 goal range this coming season, with another 30 assists (a small fall in percentages offset by playing more minutes and having a few less of his own shots going in) which would mean 60-65 points as a general projection to go with over 200 shots.

Here's the consensus on him:

Former Maple Leafs legend Jared McCann had a fantastic season for #SeaKraken scoring 40 goals a pacing for 73 points. In 2023/24 do you expect McCann's pace to be

— Keeping Karlsson Fantasy Hockey Podcast (@keepingkarlsson) July 25, 2023

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Brock Nelson. Can he repeat is last year results?

— Etienne Garceau (@egarceaut) July 25, 2023

Brock Nelson's three best seasons have come in the last four years. Two of which coincided with spikes in ice time, while the other came on a shooting percentage peak. The shooting percentage year really looks like an outlier for someone who is very consistently right around 14% for the rest of his career, so sustained scoring at a 70-point-pace will come down to ice time.

Unfortunately for Nelson, his ice time was high early in the season before the acquisition of Bo Horvat. As soon as Horvat was acquired, his ice time slipped from the 18:30-19 minute per game range where his production peaks, down to the 17-minute range where his career production has seen him post a 50-point-pace. Assuming the Horvat and Mat Barzal line gets all of the minutes it can handle, and with the depth of the Isles overall, that likely means Nelson will be in line for closer to his 50- to 60-point range than the 75 he put up last year. When there are injuries, his production will spike, but overall I would say this is definitely a sell-high point for Nelson, and to look for different keeper options that are more likely to get you to that 70-point plateau.

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Now for the best news, the Guide drops today. Make sure you have it ordered so that you don't have to wait any longer for it, if it isn't out already.

ANNOUNCEMENT
The 18th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide will not be released this Friday.

It will be released WEDNESDAY
💥💣💥

Pre-order: https://t.co/H2REQ4JSDj pic.twitter.com/dgzcEM8iOn

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) July 23, 2023

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As a result of my vacation and just a busy summer in general, the cap league rankings are going to skip the July publication. The next update will be in September, in time for draft season. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.