The 2023-24 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide has been released! Head on over to the Dobber Shop and grab a copy to help support what we do year-round. It is all online so it’s constantly updated as roster movement continues through the offseason, meaning things aren’t out of date.

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William Eklund said he was playing through a shoulder injury through most of last season, which would help explain why he didn't quite fire on all cylinders despite a very solid AHL season. It will be interesting to see where they decide to slot Eklund, if at all, in 2023-24 considering the lack of talent across the roster.

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The impact of the Tarasenko signing can be read here. I like the pickup both in real life and in our game.

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We are finishing off my Ramblings portion of Bubble Keeper Week by getting to some questions that have been sent in. These all came from Twitter – follow me @SlimCliffy – and thanks to those that sent in their question.

These are going to be varied from veterans to young players, from either/or situations to a group of players. Hopefully the wide swath of questions here can help out the readers a bit.

Tom Wilson vs. Evander Kane in a multi-cat league:

multi-cat league: Tom Wilson vs. Evander Kane.

— Evan Starr (@evanstarr) July 18, 2023

Over their last two seasons, Kane and Wilson are virtually even in assists and hits per minute. Wilson has a decided edge in PIMs per minute which, if they had similar TOI, would give him an extra 20-ish in a full season. Kane has a decided edge in goals and shots per minute. To his credit, Wilson has been much more productive on the power play. In all it seems a fairly even matchup.

Wilson's problem is his role. Wilson saw a decline in TOI last year as he returned from injury. The team should be healthy and Max Pacioretty will hopefully be back before Christmas. If TJ Oshie is healthy most of the year, and Pacioretty can remain in the lineup, it'll eat into Wilson's role. Conversely, Kane is going to be a staple of Edmonton's top-6 and because they get used so much, Kane should still easily clear 18 minutes a night. Even if Kane is left off the top PP unit as he was for much of 2022-23, he can still out-produce Wilson just because of the ice-time difference and his even-strength line mates.

This is a fascinating question because these players sort of mirror each other. Though their styles differ a bit, they're both power forwards, and Wilson is going into his age-29 season and it'll be his first full season after his knee surgery. Kane has also had his fair share of injury problems and he's three years older than Wilson. At this stage of their careers, neither should be relied upon for 75 games.

But, if I want a guy that has 35-goal, 65-point, 275-shot, and 200-hit upside, it's Kane and not Wilson.

Brayden Point vs. William Nylander vs. Evander Kane – Pick one in a multi-cat league.

Multicat: Point/Nylander/E.Kane. Can only keep one.

— Matthew Sarookanian (@MSarookanian) July 18, 2023

It is important to note Point's 21.7% shooting this season. He is a high-percentage shooter – playing so much with Nikita Kucherov helps – but his previous three seasons averaged 17%. Had he done that in 2022-23, he scores 40 goals instead of 51, and his lack of peripherals probably keeps him out of this question.

Nylander's biggest problem is he just had a career year, and it was worse than two campaigns Point has already had, and they're both going into their age-27 seasons. As it stands, Nylander may only have one year left in Toronto and there's no telling where he goes after that. He has another gear to his fantasy game – a good SH% season can see him get to 50 goals – but with Matthew Knies around, the forward who would lose his PP role first is Nylander. The edge for Nylander over Kane would come mostly through assists and PPPs, and it's probably not enough in a multi-cat format.  

If he can play a full season, Kane could easily lead the three players here in shots, hits, and penalty minutes. Whatever difference there may be in point production can more than be made up through the ancillary stats.

Point has played in 95% of his games since his rookie season, or 78 games out of every 82. Conversely, Kane is closer to 79% of his games played, or 64-65 games every 82. Even if we discount his suspension for off-ice issues (which we shouldn't, but let's keep it to physical health for a minute), he's still around 71-72 games every 82. It is a difference, but 5-6 games shouldn't cause a complete overhaul.

I am pretty tempted to say Kane here. I think if all three players hit their upsides, Kane is easily the best fantasy option. All he needs is to stay healthy. I will say Point because, at the least, he'll have Kucherov next to him for years to come and he's still just 27 years old. All the same, it wouldn't surprise me to see Kane be the best of the three in 2023-24.  

Bunch of players (Keep 3)

12 team H2H cats(G, A, P, PPP, +/-, SOG, Hits, Blks; Wins, Sv%, GAA, SO)

Players w/ rd kept in (parenthesis):

Kuzmenko(20), E. Karlsson(14), Vanaeck(11), RNH(10), Trocheck(9), Caufeild(8), Werenski(7) Dahlin(6), Hamilton(6), Hesikanen(6), Marchand(4), E. Pettersson(3)

— Scott Free (@ramsfan1213) July 18, 2023

The easiest one here is Erik Karlsson. Even if he stays in San Jose, a 14^th-round value is too much to pass up. Karlsson fails to live up to that only if he's injured, which is always a possibility with him, but the upside if he plays 75 games is very obvious.

Next up is Rasmus Dahlin. He will be the lock top PP defenceman for a high-end offensive team and can contribute well to all the peripheral categories. Over the last two seasons, among all defencemen, Dahlin profiles very closely to Kris Letang and Victor Hedman. That kind of across-the-board performance makes him a unicorn on the blue line when we consider his age. He's in, too.

I would want to keep Ryan Nugent-Hopkins but he's entirely reliant on the power play. If he gets into some sort of PP rotation, his fantasy value is nuked. It is really hard to trust a guy who cleared his previous career-high by 35 points and is going into his age-30 season. On the other hand, if he keeps his PP1 role all year, this is tremendous value.

The other guy in consideration is Cole Caufield. His problem is a lack of hits/blocks, and the fact that he's not really a good playmaker yet. It wouldn't be surprising to see him have a 40-goal, 25-assist season sometime soon and that lack of helpers, to go with a lack of hits and blocks, is a stumbling block to his broad fantasy value. In that sense, I would prefer RNH.

My official picks are Dahlin, Karlsson, and Nugent-Hopkins, but I would have no issue replacing RNH with Caufield if the owner wants to look more to the long term. Vanecek can be kept if the owner wants a goalie – that value is fine – but Akira Schmid may be a nice draft value, too.

Josh Morrissey vs. Shea Theodore – Last defence spot, points-only format.

Morrissey vs Theodore for my last D keeper spot. Points only league (goals and assists). Thanks!

— Chunky's Choice (@Chunkys_Choice) July 18, 2023

This is a very interesting debate. If you asked me which player I'd rather have on my real-life team, it's Theodore, and I wouldn't have to really think twice. However, fantasy is not real life, and that changes things.

Vegas split the PP unit in the regular season and Alex Pietrangelo actually earned more PPTOI per game. That flipped in the playoffs, though, as the team's top unit was leaned on more, with Theodore running it, even if Pietrangelo spelled him off at times. The team really did like the top unit when they were all healthy in the postseason and that's something that could carry into 2023-24.

Morrissey had a fantastic season but there are two clear signs of regression:

• Three-year average of 5.1% shooting that jumped to 9.3% in 2022-23.
• Registered a point on 53% of 5-on-5 goals scored with him on the ice after never having a season over 36% (called Individual Points Percentage, or IPP), and a three-year average of 26.4%. That three-year average is half his rate from this past season.

If Morrissey had managed his three-year average by IPP, he posts 56 points and not 76. The thing is, even if he puts up just 56 points, it's a better mark than Theodore has ever managed.

In a points-only format, I'm still inclined to go with Morrissey. He will be heavily leaned upon for ice time, his top PP role is assured, and despite Winnipeg turning parts of the roster over, they should have a good top PP unit. Again, it's a case where I would want Theodore on my real-life team, but his uncertain role and lower ice time levels make him a precarious player to own in fantasy.

One final stat: Theodore was down to 21:26 a night in 2022-23. Out of the 12 defencemen that reached the 60-point mark last season, only one (Dougie Hamilton) skated under 23 minutes a night. Hamilton also played all the key offensive minutes for one of the top offensive teams in the NHL. Something needs to change in Theodore's situation for him to be the choice here, otherwise it's Morrissey.

Keep 2 from younger players:

Need to keep 2 of Dawson Mercer, Quinton Byfield, Kuzmenko, Kakko, Jake Sanderson, JJ Peterka, Lafreniere, Barzal or David Jiricek. Cats are G/A/PPP/SOG/HIT/BLK

— Crab Navi 🦀 (@ChickenPoutine) July 18, 2023

Considering yesterday's Ramblings went over production from young players on top-end teams, this is a timely keeper question. Mat Barzal doesn't neatly fit into this paradigm, but the rest certainly qualify.

Barzal is being kept. I understand he brings little to hits and blocks, but he still paced for roughly 20 goals, 72 points, 27 PPPs, and 200 shots. His worst per-game point production mark in the last four years would still work out to be 66 points in an 82-game season, a total no other player on this list has reached. He will be heavily used and gets a full season with guys like Bo Horvat, Oliver Wahlstrom, and Pierre Engvall in the lineup. He has a point-per-game pace on the horizon. He is a guy I'm absolutely keeping.

At this point, we start eliminating players. I am keeping neither Alexis Lafreniere or Kaapo Kakko; neither will be higher than 6^th on the PP forwards depth chart anytime soon. Lafreniere can bring a lot of hits, and that is a big help, but his production is capped until we see his role change. Barzal will easily out-produce him in four of the six categories.

I am not keeping Kuzmenko. Sorry, the guy shot over 27%, put up just 13 hits in 81 games, and fell well short of two shots/game. He doesn't even have a firm hold of a top PP role as he was constantly moved off in the second half of the season. Even if he has a 30-goal, 70-point season, his peripherals will not contribute much, and whether Kuzmenko can get anywhere close to those production levels is a fair question.

I am also not keeping David Jiricek. He has a wonderful future ahead of him but unless he has an Adam Fox-like breakout immediately, he'll be stuffed down the depth chart for at least a couple years, topping out at second-pair, second PP minutes if he's lucky. The same could be said for Jake Sanderson, but at least we have a meaningful NHL sample of him succeeding, which we do not for Jiriceck.

The last pair to be excluded is Quinton Byfield and JJ Peterka. The former earned a top-line role, but the team balances its 5-on-5 ice time as their top-9 forwards were only separated by about two minutes per game. Byfield also won't get top PP minutes or be used late in games on a veteran-laden team (at least not to start the season). He is rounding into form; he's just doing it on a team that has a lot of very good veteran forwards. Peterka has the same problem, even if Jack Quinn is injured. Peterka is far down the list for top PP minutes and no Buffalo forward outside the top PP unit skated 16 minutes. Considering the top guys in Buffalo will be around for years to come, it may be a few seasons before Peterka starts scratching his fantasy upside.

That leaves two players: Sanderson and Dawson Mercer. I went over Sanderson's future last week so we won't go long here. The defenceman's problem is a lack of hits, with just 43 in 77 games, but if he can bump that to 60-70, it'll make him a much more versatile multi-cat player.

Mercer is such a fascinating player. He skated 15:42 a night through the end of February last season but exploded to 18:47 a night over the final six weeks. Unfortunately, he was moved off the top PP unit in the playoffs and New Jersey went out and added Tyler Toffoli in the offseason. There is a lot of competition for Mercer both at even strength and on the power play. He is basically the team's utility knife, jumping all over the lineup where he's needed. He still isn't shooting or hitting much, though.

For me, Barzal is a for-sure keep. Other than that, I think it just depends on your team. If you want a defenceman who looks phenomenal already but may not have a prime role for a couple years, it's Sanderson. If you want a forward with the same problem, it's Mercer. My lean, because of the peripherals, is Sanderson, and it feels wild to say that when looking at the rest of the names on the list, but I really do believe he's on the cusp of being a high-end defenceman capable of repeating 50-point seasons with very good peripherals.