Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. Last week I listed off several potential bubble keepers in one of my leagues. With the possible exception of Alexander Kerfoot, I plan to keep all of those players, mainly because of their low salaries but also because of their peripherals.

(In case you missed it, we've been in the midst of Bubble Keepers Week here at DobberHockey. There was lots of keeper content across the site this week, so be sure to check it out.)

Today, I’ll venture into another one of my leagues, where the keeper rules are more restricted. The basic rule in this league is that I have the option of keeping players that fall below a certain number of points and aren’t “under contract”. Their contracts aren’t tied to real-life contracts, but instead are related to terms that you can give to a player when you win them in a slow auction bidding process. The rules are a bit complex after that, so I may not explain my keeper decision in my context in case it doesn’t fit with yours.

Below (and throughout today's 21 rambles) are a couple of the forwards I need to make a decision on, along with some general observations. I’ll list the defensemen and goalies on Sunday. (july29)

2. Alexander Barabanov: On a Sharks team that has been crumbling for the last few seasons, Barabanov has emerged as one bright spot. In his second full NHL season, the 29-year-old Barabanov scored at a 57-point pace while logging first-unit power-play minutes. That’s not bad, right? It’s not all that good when you take into account other categories. Barabanov have averaged fewer than two shots per game in each of his three NHL seasons. In addition, even Erik Karlsson‘s plus/minus was better than Barabanov’s minus-31. 

Even with the acquisition of Anthony Duclair, Barabanov should be able to maintain his current PP1 spot. He was on the first power play even when Timo Meier was still with the Sharks, while his only other real competition might be Kevin Labanc and William Eklund (eventually). Expect more similar production from Barabanov next season, but likely not a huge breakout. He should make for a decent late-round sleeper in single-season league drafts, though. (july29)

3. Mark Stone: Speaking of injuries… I’d tread very cautiously here. The most telling description of Stone might be from Elliotte Friedman, who said that Stone “is likely to be in and out of the lineup for the remainder of his career.” That smells like a perpetual game-time decision to me, or quite possibly a continuation of the past two seasons. That’s not what you want on your roster, even if he is dependable when he is in the lineup.

Stone has played in roughly half of the Golden Knights’ games over the past two seasons, averaging 34 points. He did not miss a game in the playoffs while averaging just over a point per game, so he is still effective when in the lineup (although it’s worth mentioning that he was also shooting 22% over the playoffs). In single-season leagues, I’d leave Stone out of the top 100. If healthy for the entire season, he is certainly capable of being one of your better players. But that’s the kind of risk you should let someone else take. (july29)

4. William Eklund said he was playing through a shoulder injury through most of last season, which would help explain why he didn’t quite fire on all cylinders despite a very solid AHL season. It will be interesting to see where they decide to slot Eklund, if at all, in 2023-24 considering the lack of talent across the roster. (july28)

5. The impact of the Tarasenko signing can be read here. I like the pickup both in real life and in our game. (july28)

6. Reader @MSarookainian asked: Brayden Point vs. William Nylander vs. Evander Kane – Pick one in a multi-cat league?

It is important to note Point’s 21.7% shooting this season. He is a high-percentage shooter – playing so much with Nikita Kucherov helps – but his previous three seasons averaged 17%. Had he done that in 2022-23, he scores 40 goals instead of 51, and his lack of peripherals probably keeps him out of this question.

Nylander’s biggest problem is he just had a career year, and it was worse than two campaigns Point has already had, and they’re both going into their age-27 seasons. As it stands, Nylander may only have one year left in Toronto and there’s no telling where he goes after that. He has another gear to his fantasy game – a good SH% season can see him get to 50 goals – but with Matthew Knies around, the forward who would lose his PP role first is Nylander. The edge for Nylander over Kane would come mostly through assists and PPPs, and it’s probably not enough in a multi-cat format.  

If he can play a full season, Kane could easily lead the three players here in shots, hits, and penalty minutes. Whatever difference there may be in point production can more than be made up through the ancillary stats.

Point has played in 95% of his games since his rookie season, or 78 games out of every 82. Conversely, Kane is closer to 79% of his games played, or 64-65 games every 82. Even if we discount his suspension for off-ice issues (which we shouldn’t, but let’s keep it to physical health for a minute), he’s still around 71-72 games every 82. It is a difference, but 5-6 games shouldn’t cause a complete overhaul.

I am pretty tempted to say Kane here. I think if all three players hit their upsides, Kane is easily the best fantasy option. All he needs is to stay healthy. I will say Point because, at the least, he’ll have Kucherov next to him for years to come and he’s still just 27 years old. All the same, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Kane be the best of the three in 2023-24. (july28)

7. Reader @Chunkys_Choice asked: Josh Morrissey vs. Shea Theodore – Last defense spot, points-only format?

This is a very interesting debate. If you asked me which player I’d rather have on my real-life team, it’s Theodore, and I wouldn’t have to really think twice. However, fantasy is not real life, and that changes things.

Vegas split the PP unit in the regular season and Alex Pietrangelo actually earned more PPTOI per game. That flipped in the playoffs, though, as the team’s top unit was leaned on more, with Theodore running it, even if Pietrangelo spelled him off at times. The team really did like the top unit when they were all healthy in the postseason and that’s something that could carry into 2023-24.

Morrissey had a fantastic season but there are two clear signs of regression:

• Three-year average of 5.1% shooting that jumped to 9.3% in 2022-23.
• Registered a point on 53% of 5-on-5 goals scored with him on the ice after never having a season over 36% (called Individual Points Percentage, or IPP), and a three-year average of 26.4%. That three-year average is half his rate from this past season.

If Morrissey had managed his three-year average by IPP, he posts 56 points and not 76. The thing is, even if he puts up just 56 points, it’s a better mark than Theodore has ever managed.

In a points-only format, I’m still inclined to go with Morrissey. He will be heavily leaned upon for ice time, his top PP role is assured, and despite Winnipeg turning parts of the roster over, they should have a good top PP unit. Again, it’s a case where I would want Theodore on my real-life team, but his uncertain role and lower ice time levels make him a precarious player to own in fantasy.

One final stat: Theodore was down to 21:26 a night in 2022-23. Out of the 12 defensemen that reached the 60-point mark last season, only one (Dougie Hamilton) skated under 23 minutes a night. Hamilton also played all the key offensive minutes for one of the top offensive teams in the NHL. Something needs to change in Theodore’s situation for him to be the choice here, otherwise it’s Morrissey. (july28)

8. David Jiricek has a wonderful future ahead of him but unless he has an Adam Fox-like breakout immediately, he’ll be stuffed down the depth chart for at least a couple years, topping out at second-pair, second PP minutes if he’s lucky. The same could be said for Jake Sanderson, but at least we have a meaningful NHL sample of him succeeding, which we do not for Jiriceck.

9. I just wanted to write a bit on Patrice Bergeron‘s retirement, setting fantasy hockey aside.

I play a lot of daily fantasy sports (DFS), focusing mostly on hockey, and one of the mantras I had was to never use top forwards going into Boston. For my entire DFS career – going back a decade – Bergeron has been the shutdown center. Since Boston’s Cup win in 2011, Bergeron was on the ice for 3.08 goals-for per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and 1.89 goals against/60. He was the only forward in the NHL from 2011-2023 to be on the ice for over 3.0 goals-for per 60 and under 2.0 goals against/60. In that span, Bergeron was on the ice for 338 goals against in 10 737 minutes at 5-on-5; Chris Kreider was on the ice for 339 goals against in 9559 minutes. That minute differential is basically an entire extra season for Bergeron, and he ended up on the ice for fewer overall goals against, and did not have Henrik Lundqvist and Igor Shesterkin. It really is absolutely incredible what he did.

Anze Kopitar is one of the best two-way forwards I’ve ever watched in my life, and it feels like a miracle that he has two Selke trophies. Bergeron’s dominance at both ends of the ice is something we only see from a few players each generation, and he stood head-and-shoulders even among that elite grouping of guys like Kopitar, Ryan O’Reilly, and Sean Couturier. A special player that meant a lot not only to the Boston fan base, but marginalized hockey fans across the league. Congratulations to him on a fantastic career and all the best in his post-playing career. (july27)

10. Another one of the big potential free agent names from 2024 was taken off the board as Carolina extended center Sebastian Aho for eight years with an AAV approaching the $10M mark:

With this extension, Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi are signed through the 2028-29 season. Assuming both Seth Jarvis and Martin Necas get long-term deals in the next 12 months, those five players make up the core of Carolina’s future. It should be noted that they are all forwards as well, as Carolina has zero defensemen signed past the 2024-25 campaign.

For cap leaguers, this doesn’t change a whole lot for Aho owners. The cap will go up nearly 5% from where it is now in a year’s time, and over 10% in two years. This deal is a 15% jump in AAV from his current contract. It is a rise but by 2025-26, his percentage of the cap will be almost identical (10.6%) to what it will be in 2023-24 (10.1%). If owners didn’t want him in their leagues at his price over the last couple years, I’m not sure why this would change that outlook, other than a small crunch in 2024-25. (july27)

11. Fabian Lysell was just outside Dobber’s top-50 prospects and is likely Boston’s top youngster. He had a good AHL season, but his problem is Boston’s position of weakness is now at center. When everyone is healthy, a minimum of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Jake DeBrusk are ahead of him on the depth chart for PPTOI. At least two of those three players would also be ahead of him in EVTOI. Even if he cracks the roster in October, it’s a long uphill climb to fantasy relevance. (july27)

12. Cole Perfetti has been one of my favourite young players over the last couple seasons, but injuries have limited his viewings. As it stands, the team still has Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Nikolaj Ehlers on the roster. Nino Niederreiter is kicking around, and Gabriel Vildari was acquired in the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade. Perfetti may not get a top PP role – even if I think he absolutely should – and Winnipeg is a year away from really turning the roster over. I am very, very bullish on Perfetti long-term and he’s a great option to try to acquire in dynasty formats for 2024 and beyond. I just worry about this coming season. (july27)

13. Kaapo Kakko: New York has been scrambling for right-wing depth since the Pavel Buchnevich trade, and bringing in Blake Wheeler doesn’t bode well for Kakko’s short-term fantasy value. The 2019 second overall pick may get a second-line role at even strength, but he won’t come close to the top power play. No forward outside NYR’s top PP unit reached either 25 goals or 50 points in 2022-23. Even if Kakko takes another step forward offensively, expecting more than 50 points is expecting too much. (july27)

14. Matthew Knies: This will depend a lot on what happens with William Nylander. If he’s traded, Knies could step onto the top PP unit right away. In that scenario, I think Knies is a 60-point threat. If Nylander stays, Knies is almost certainly locked out of the top PP unit and 60 points would be a superlative season. Toronto’s young winger looked phenomenal for them down the stretch last season but there’s too much elite competition for prime PPTOI in the short-term. (july27)

15. Alex Holtz: Oddly enough, I felt better about Holtz’s chances for fantasy relevance at the start of last season than I do now. Where the team once relied on Jesper Bratt for scoring on the wings, they now have added Timo Meier and Tyler Toffoli. Include a healthy Ondrej Palat, plus a breakout season from Dawson Mercer, and it seems as if Holtz will be lucky to hold on to a middle-6 role through the season. With all the extensive contracts on the team, it may be a while before Holtz is a reliable fantasy asset. (july27)

16. In net, I’m working on acquiring a goalie, because my current goalies on my roster are Dustin Wolf, Yaroslav Askarov, and Mads Sogaard. Sogaard might have had some dark-horse upside this year if the Sens hadn’t brought in Jonas Korpisalo, but the big contract quashes that hope. Between Askarov and Wolf, I think they are both a year away from meaningful games, so ideally I would keep one and stash him in my prospect slot, while using the other as bait for a better goalie.

Of the two Wolf seems a little further along, though Askarov has the higher eventual upside. Right now, I am hoping for a Jacob Markstrom or Dan Vladar trade, so that I can keep both goalies, and draft another one to pair with Wolf as my NHL tandem for the year. (july26)

17. Reader @dwighthow6 asked: After a Stanley Cup win and a new contract signed, is Adin Hill a keeper in a 2 goalie starter salary cap league?

Adin Hill had a great run, but I think he’s more Antti Niemi or Jordan Binnington than he is Jonathan Quick or Mark-Andre Fleury, so no, I don’t think he’s someone I look to as a top-20 goalie next year, and ideally you’re only spending decent keeper capitol on a top-10 goalie, or a bargain guy. Hill is unfortunately neither. Out of him and Logan Thompson, I actually expect the latter to be the starter in the second half, and that’s where the real bargain value lies. (july26)

18. The Carolina Hurricanes are bringing back a defenseman they had a couple seasons ago by signing Tony DeAngelo to a one-year contract. Dobber had his take here. How this works with Brent Burns around remains to be seen. They could try to run two even units, go 3F-2D, or just put one of them on a heavily-used top unit. We will have to see what training camp looks like because DeAngelo's fantasy value relies on that.

Dobber broke down the fantasy impact here, while here's what colleague Alex MacLean chimed in with:

At this point, I’m taking Burns of the two, which would likely leave the second unit with both DeAngelo and Dmitry Orlov. The Hurricanes defense core notched a combined 34 power play points last season. I would say that we would see a similar amount this coming year, likely split up as: Burns – 20, DeAngelo – 10, Orlov – five.

As for where to draft them, I’ll assume this is a single-year, points-only re-draft, and say that based on the above, I would take Burns somewhere in the 70-100 range, and DeAngelo in the 125-150 range. This likely means that neither will end up on my fantasy squad this season, which I’m fine with. I’ll let someone else take the gamble on Burns’ age, DeAngelo’s distractions, and figuring out which one consistently gets the better deployment. There’s even a possibility it’s neither and it goes to Orlov as the new FA signing if the team decides they want a left-shot on the top unit instead. (july25)

19. Jack Quinn vs. Wyatt Johnston:

This is where we start to run into our youth problems. Not that having good, young players in a keeper is a problem, but when you’re trying to win a title, a 45-point season with meagre peripherals won’t cut it.

I likely have a blind spot for Quinn. I was very high on him in his draft year, he excelled in the AHL, and was very good in his rookie NHL season. The problems, of course, are that there are a lot of high-end offensive talents in Buffalo that will earn ice time over him, and he’s going to miss months with his Achilles injury. My belief is it may only be a few years before Quinn is a 30-goal, 70-point forward, but he clearly won’t get there in 2023-24, and may not have a lot of relevance once he returns from his injury.

Johnston is running into a similar problem as Quinn, in that there is a lot of high-end offensive talent in Dallas that supersedes him on the depth chart. The upside is that he’s healthy and will be on a Cup contending team. His line was a de facto second line last season, but the addition of Matt Duchene gives them a third scoring line that could eat into Johnston’s even-strength minutes.

I suppose the guy to keep here is Johnston because of the health disparity, but it feels absolutely awful to let go of Quinn. I could keep him, stash him on IR, and grab someone off waivers at the start of the season, but then I’m eschewing a 12^th keeper for a guy that is outside the top-300 fantasy options drafted, and streaming a roster spot for months until Quinn returns, limiting my roster moves elsewhere. That feels like a lot of lost value in a season where the championship charge is on. (july25)

20. Jake Sanderson vs. Jamie Drysdale

Sanderson is only the fifth defenseman since the 2012 lockout to post at least 140 blocks in their rookie season. He is also one of just three defensemen since that lockout to post at least 30 points, 120 shots, and 140 blocks, in addition to Ivan Provorov and Moritz Seider. However, he paced for roughly 200 power-play minutes in a season Ottawa got just 80 total games from Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun. Are those 200-ish minutes of PPTOI repeatable? Because he got over half (17) his total point production (32) with the man advantage, and his hit totals were very meagre. (I wrote about Sanderson and Ottawa’s power play last week.)

I wonder how fantasy owners are going to treat Drysdale. He clearly was on an upward trajectory in 2021-22 when he played 81 games at nearly 20 minutes a night. He was limited to just 8 games last season and the team is starting to turn over the blue line. Some veterans are gone, and they brought in Radko Gudas, but Drysdale and Olen Zellweger, at the least, are expected to be every day roster players. Will the returning Ducks blue liner get a top PP role back? He may have to work for it, especially under new management and coaching. He also hasn’t shown much of a penchant for peripherals yet.

This could be a situation where there really isn’t a wrong answer because I feel like Drysdale has a higher PP upside while Sanderson has a higher peripheral upside. I am leaning Drysdale right now but can easily be swayed over the next month or so. (july25)

21. Some more summer hockey reading for you: We will be starting the Offseason Fantasy Grades team articles in less than two weeks. The first article is scheduled to appear on Tuesday August 8, and they will continue into September. You will be able to find the links to all of them here. For now, you can scroll down and read last season’s articles and reflect on how things are with each team a year later. 

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