The 18^th annual Fantasy Guide was released last week – it actually came out early! Very early. Tuesday at midnight, to be precise. And as you know, this gets updated (free updates) all the way through to the start of the season. I've already updated it twice. I have another update done but not posted (just a minor fix – Markus Nurmi signed in Finland so I zeroed out his projection with Nashville). I plan to run my program that will hyperlink all the player names to their profile page, and then I’ll post the update.

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Common Misconceptions of Fantasy Owners – 2023 Edition

In the dog days of summer, when hockey transactions have died down, I've had plenty of in-person and online discussions. More than enough repeated opinions that I can form a solid list of opinions that I disagree with. What better topic for a late July Ramblings? In no particular order…

Akira Schmid is Not New Jersey's Best Goaltender

Schmid looks as if he will be a star. He's probably the Devils' top goalie prospect. And at this point in time, it 'looks' as if the Devils expect him to be on the NHL roster when they kick off the season. But…

He's not money in the bank. When it comes to goaltending, probably 90% of them are not money in the bank. But Schmid is even less so. His numbers with Utica were pretty much equal to those of Nico Daws. Both goaltenders have NHL size (Schmid is 6-5, Daws is 6-4), and are similar in age (Daws is a half year younger). Daws was drafted higher (84^th overall in 2020 versus Schmid at 136^th overall in 2018). But, in 18 NHL games, Schmid was awesome in is first five starts while the Devils were on a hot run. In his next 13 regular season starts, he was 4-5-2, 2.41 GAA and 0.910 SV% with 38.5% of his starts classified as 'Quality'. Those numbers aren't terrible, but they're not "let's give him the keys to the castle" numbers.

In the playoffs, when we think of Schmid, we think of greatness. Three consecutive amazing starts in which he allowed just two goals has imprinted on our brains. We forget his fourth game (five goals allowed in a loss) and embrace his fifth game – a shutout win that eliminated the Rangers. We forget about how Carolina handed him his lunch in games one and two. This is the guy you think will take out Vitek Vanecek, who just went 33-11-4 with a 2.45 GAA and 0.911 SV%?

Vanecek, a second-round pick from 2014, just played the heaviest workload of his career with 52 games. When a goalie does this, he usually tapers off in the second half as Vanecek did. But each year thereafter, these goalies tend to be stronger for longer. Given that Schmid can still be sent down without having to go on waivers, do not completely rule out an Alex Stalock type of signing, or even a rotating backup situation with Daws, Schmid and even Erik Kallgren moving up and down.

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Pyotr Kochetkov is Not NHL-Ready

He looked ready. In fact, push comes to shove, he could probably learn through trial-by-fire and be successful behind what many feel is the best lineup in the NHL today. But another season in which he spends most of it in the AHL is best for his development.

Kochetkov started 7-1-4, 2.02 GAA and 0.926 SV% had many talking about a Calder Trophy. A 5-6-1, 2.84 GAA and 0.893 SV% after that had those talks go away. He seemed unable to recover from a poor outing. Couldn't dig himself out of it, mentally. In fact, in his last six AHL games his SV% was just 0.850. Another year to work on that consistency would do him a world of good. By the way, you can see our AHL profile page for him right here, where you can find game logs, extended stats and monthly breakdowns.

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Timo Meier Didn't Help New Jersey's Offense

The Devils are becoming an offensive juggernaut. Fourth in the league in scoring. Adding Meier at the deadline and then signing him to an extension pushes them over the top, right? Nope. They would be pushed over the top with or without Meier.

Meier had just 18 points in 32 games (regular season and playoffs) after joining the Devils. He played most of his shifts with some combination of Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier and/or Dawson Mercer. In other words – a serious upgrade to Kevin Labanc and Tomas Hertl. But with weaker results.

I have him on the second line with Hischier, and I still have him producing solid numbers. But there are times when you are confident in the projection, and times when you are not. I wouldn't be confident in giving him a 60-point projection, nor am I about the 71 points I have for him. Is his role with New Jersey going to make him a 60-point player? Perhaps he needs to be 'the man' in order to achieve 75-plus points. With the Devils, he's their fourth top offensive gun at best. And that's just among forwards.

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Jesper Wallstedt is Not a Threat to Filip Gustavsson

Here's one that seriously bothers me. Fantasy owners in dynasty and keeper leagues are honestly factoring in Wallstedt when they evaluate Gustavsson's future value. Zero impact. Be more worried about Wallstedt! Yes, Wallstedt is extremely talented and a potential elite goaltender and multi-year NHL All-Star. But he's a long way from being ready. His AHL debut season was less than impressive. As a rare first-round draft pick goalie, fantasy owners assume the red carpet is rolled out for him. And I'm sure it is. But he's probably not joining the Wild until 2026-27 when he has to go on waivers to be sent down.

Why not sooner? Well, what do you expect from him? A 0.931 SV%? That would be pretty awesome, and I can see an elite prospect like Wallstedt posting something like that. Gustavsson actually did it. Gustavsson, who is a high draft pick himself (55^th overall), is already performing the way we 'hope' Wallstedt will perform. He's already there! Why would a team replace a goalie who is doing what every team prays for their goalie to do… with a goalie who 'might' do that?

In fact, as I alluded to above, I would be more worried about Wallstedt. There is precedence for this. Jonathan Bernier and Jonathan Quick. Bernier was drafted 11^th overall in 2006. He was the next big thing. His talent was through the roof. Quick wasn't drafted quite so high, at 72^nd overall in 2005. By 2010, Bernier was NHL-ready. But by that point, Quick had two full seasons under his belt, including a 39-win year. The Kings were hoping Bernier would turn into a 39-win goalie, but Quick was already there! Bernier was stuck as a backup for three seasons, hardly getting any starts as Quick won Stanley Cups. It was 2013 before Bernier got traded out of Los Angeles, but by then – I think his development suffered. He had a couple of good years in Toronto, but truly failed to find that 'elite level' that was expected of him. If there was no Jonathan Quick – would Bernier have been the hero for Los Angeles? Would his story be written differently?

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Brandt Clarke is Not a Lock for a Los Angeles Roster Spot Out of Camp

This one is not etched in stone. I consider it likely – but 55% likely, and not 99% likely. He's an elite offensive talent from the blue line in an era where offense from the blue line is peaking. He also takes a lot of risks, and if he gets caught the odd time in junior hockey, he'll get caught a lot more in the pros. He made the team last year, wasn't sheltered at all and was partnered with a veteran in Alex Edler.

My best guess is that he will play a few games to start the season, go down to the AHL for five or six weeks, and then return for good. The initial NHL run will show the coaching staff how far he has come along over the past year, and what still needs to be fixed. The AHL stint will be good for addressing those issues.

I think Jordan Spence is just as NHL-ready, but he also needs another half-season of AHL time. I can see the Kings adding a depth defenseman such as Nick Holden or Caleb Jones, to keep their spots warm until they're called up for good.

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Sean Durzi is Not 'Behind' Juuso Valimaki/Damon Severson is Not 'Behind' Zach Werenski

In these cases, their new organizations went after a right-shooting defenseman to compliment, not compete with, their left-shooting defenseman. I suspect that at even strength they will be tried out as partners. On the power play, in the case of Arizona, it's likely that the team goes with four forwards and one defenseman. Not all the time, but most of the time. And depending on things like which player is hot, which side of the ice the initial faceoff is on, the goalie's track record of handling a shot from the point by a lefty versus a righty, etc., the two will rotate. And when the Coyotes roll with two defensemen on the PP, those two will work well together, assuming they have chemistry at even strength.

In the case of Columbus, I do have three forwards and two defensemen. Severson's value goes up, as he will see a spike in his PP TOI. And at even strength – either Werenski or Ivan Provorov will be his left-shot partner at even strength. Either one is a massive upgrade over Brendan Smith.

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Taylor Hall Doesn't Automatically Surge in Value

Actually, that headline is a little off. Hall does surge in value. Now. But it's his 'results' that aren't automatic. I, along with everyone else, have Hall and Taylor Raddysh playing with Connor Bedard to start. But I have very little faith in it working out for Hall. He failed in Buffalo when the Sabres signed him to play with Jack Eichel. Since then, he's been a very good secondary player with the Bruins. Out of the spotlight, with ice time that's about three minutes per game below what he was getting in his heyday – and given sheltered minutes.

With Lukas Reichel, Philipp Kurashev, Cole Guttman, Andreas Athanasiou and even Ryan Donato each dying for that spot on the Bedard line, I can see one of them playing the role of dark horse in the second half after Hall either gets injured (which is almost a guarantee), or underwhelms.

Which players thrive on that Bedard line is up in the air, and I can see it not truly having a resolution until well into the season. But there is one guarantee for success via Bedard. And that's Seth Jones. There is no other defenseman even close to Jones in experience and pedigree, and his upside absolutely peaks.

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I'm also starting to wonder if Jonatan Berggren will end up being more productive over the course of his career than Lucas Raymond. Something to think about. They have similar upside, but Raymond gets all the accolades. All the hype. He's the better overall player, but you don't get points for overall play. Fantasy owners put Raymond on a pedestal. Meanwhile, Berggren just quietly puts up points at every level. What if, at some point, he is put on a line with snipers Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin. He is an elite centerman, he would flourish with those two (at least on paper). And would they be called the Cat Burglars?

(Cat-Berg-Lar…)

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See you next Monday.