Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

Heading into the 2023-24 campaign, Connor Bedard (CHI) is the consensus pick to take home this year's Calder Trophy. Behind him, Luke Hughes (NJD), Logan Cooley (ARI), and Adam Fantilli (CBJ) make up a high-profile second tier of likely candidates. Building on my Top 25 Calder Candidates article in the Dobber Fantasy Guide—get yours here—today's Journey will take a closer look at some of the less-heralded choices for 2023-24's top rookie award. 

After all, several players routinely come out of nowhere to make a run for the Calder. Of the 25 players I featured in the Calder article for last year's Guide, for instance, only seven featured in the top group of 13 finalists at year's end:

Matty Beniers (SEA) – Winner

Owen Power (BUF) – Second runner-up

Matias Maccelli (ARI) – Third runner-up

Jake Sanderson (OTT)

Mason McTavish (ANA)

Cole Perfetti (ANA)

Jack Quinn (BUF)

The biggest surprise in this group was Maccelli, who did not have the pedigree of the others but forced the Coyotes to call him up part way through 2021-22 by scoring an absurd 57 points in 47 AHL games. With over three years of high-level professional experience under his belt, Maccelli was able to seamlessly translate his sublime playmaking to the NHL level, piling up assists in the process. All the other players in that group no doubt featured in every industry feature on that year's top rookies.

Here were the players who got votes in June that I did not expect to be serious Calder candidates in 2022-23: 

Stuart Skinner (EDM) – First runner-up

Wyatt Johnston (DAL)

Logan Thompson (VGK)

Noah Cates (PHI)

Kirill Marchenko (CBJ)

PO Joseph (PIT)

The two goalies went on incredible runs for strong teams; Johnston and Marchenko unexpectedly (to me) stepped straight out of the OHL and KHL respectively to play significant roles in their teams' top sixes; Noah Cates announced himself as a valuable, versatile middle-six weapon; and PO Joseph (drafted way back in 2017) finally stuck in the NHL and thrived with the Pens.

Who has the potential to push Bedard for the Calder down the stretch like Artemi Panarin did with Connor McDavid in 2015-16?

Post-Hype

Marco Rossi (MIN) & Shane Wright (SEA)

I won't go into much detail here because I already featured these two in the Guide, but both Rossi and Wright have fallen quite far from their former heights. Many had Rossi ranked third overall behind Alexis Lafreniere (NYR) and Quinton Byfield (LAK) in 2020—Hockey Prospecting had Rossi and Byfield tied for the highest star potential in the class with 77%—and Wright was the projected first-overall pick in 2022 for years until he shockingly fell to Seattle at fourth when the time came. 

Then, of course, Rossi almost died from Covid complications, forcing him to miss the entire 2020-21 season, while Wright failed to stick with the Kraken out of camp and was sent back to junior. Each now has a major chip on his shoulder (though for different reasons), a proven track record of major production at lower levels, and a promising team situation: Rossi and Wright could both conceivably close out 2023-24 as their teams' second-line centers. If either finds chemistry early on in their teams' top six, watch out.

Scott Perunovich (STL)

Due to injuries, Perunovich has played a combined total of only 131 games over the five years since he was drafted—leading many to lower his offensive ceiling and dock his fantasy value accordingly as an apparent Band Aid Boy in training. After being taken in the middle of the second round back in 2018, however, all the smooth-skating power play wizard has done on the ice is score: 69 points in 74 NCAA games, an astounding 42 in 39 AHL games (including 20 in 22 last year), and 10 in his first 26 NHL games—including four slick power play assists when featured prominently on the Blues' top PP unit during their playoff run in 2022 after Torey Krug went down with an injury.

The best thing for his development would likely be to play an extended run of games in either the AHL or NHL. Given that he is turning 25 right before training camp opens and will be a Restricted Free Agent (RFA) after this year, Perunovich will be hoping to stick with the Blues out of camp, likely running their second power play unit to open the campaign. If Krug were to stumble for any reason, Perunovich has the chops to replicate something like Calen Addison's (MIN) performance from last year (16 PP points in his first 21 games). If he can produce at that level and do so with more overall consistency as a defender than Addison, he could be a real Calder threat in 2023-24.

Underrated

Pavel Dorofeyev (VGK)

Although Dorofeyev took a sizable step backwards last year in terms of his AHL production, scoring 0.52 points per game versus 0.83 the year before, he also scored at a 40-point pace over an 18-game audition with the Golden Knights. After falling to Vegas in the third round in 2019, he befell the plight common to many young hockey players from Russia: playing very limited minutes at the country's top level and splitting time between several leagues during the same season. It was not until the 2021-22 campaign (52 in 63) that Dorofeyev made a true case for himself as a potential top-six NHL forward.

With a mixed pedigree and up-and-down production at lower levels, the Golden Knights' forward has a chance to surprise in the Calder race if he can lock down a top-nine role out of training camp and work his way up the lineup from there. A full season in a Vegas jersey could result in 40+ points and an honourable mention come June.

Luke Evangelista (NAS) & Mavrik Bourque (DAL)

Two others profiled in the guide that nevertheless deserve additional accolades, Evangelista and Bourque are both generally regarded in fantasy as solid but not top-tier prospects. Evangelista currently sits 36th on Dobber's Top Forward Prospects ranking, while Bourque slots in at 26th. Despite being relatively lower down on that particular list, Evangelista is more established in the NHL than almost every other Calder-eligible forward in 2023. He already put up a 51-point pace over 24 NHL games in 2022-23 on top of posting 41 points in 49 games with Milwaukee as an AHL rookie. Bourque's AHL production in his first year as a pro is deceptive: he caught fire down the stretch as he got his bearings, so the full-season totals do not tell the whole story.

Emil Andrae (PHI)

Andrae feels like a pretty well-kept secret for now in fantasy. Here is all you need to know about his career trajectory: in the Hockey Prospecting model, he currently has the ninth-highest star potential (37%) in the 2020 draft class—ahead of elite prospects like Cole Perfetti (34%), Quinton Byfield (31%), Lucas Raymond (26%), Jack Quinn (22%), and Alexis Lafreniere (20%). A statistical model provides only part of the picture, but that helps explain how historically significant Andrae's achievements have been as a young defender in the Allsvenskan, SHL, and (briefly) AHL.

He plays a key leadership role every time he represents Sweden internationally and has a knack for scoring clutch goals with his excellent mobility and seeing-eye shots from the point. Only Travis Sanheim and Rasmus Ristolainen are signed long-term on Philly's blue line, so it should not be as difficult to crack the Flyers as it would be on many other teams. Expect him to start with Lehigh Valley (AHL) but to earn a call up fairly quickly with a good chance of sticking.

Goalies

Devon Levi (BUF)

Levi has only Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Eric Comrie ahead of him on the Sabres depth chart, and both goalies have their fair share of warts and question marks. The hype has grown steadily as Levi has begun to prove that his spectacular success in college was no fluke. I suspect that many in fantasy are equating talent with immediate NHL success with Levi—as in, he has done so well over the past couple years that he must be talented enough to backstop Buffalo right away. Historical comparables are not kind to 21-year-old NHL goalies, however, and suggest that although he is on a strong track, he has a good deal left to prove before ascending to NHL starter. 

But at the same time, you never know! Maybe he hones his craft all year in the AHL and then takes over the crease in the playoffs à la Patrick Roy and carries the Sabres to a Stanley Cup. That team certainly has explosive potential and so does Levi.

Dustin Wolf (CGY)

Talk about explosive potential, Wolf has such sterling numbers to this point that all I can think of by way of comparables are Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin, both of whom put up unbelievable numbers in Russia before crossing over. The phrase "video game" numbers came up a lot with both those guys at the time, and it also comes to mind when scanning Wolf's stats and accomplishments. The main stumbling block between him and a Cinderella-style push for the Calder is playing time: the Flames have both Jacob Markstrom and Dan Vladar locked down for at least the next couple years. A trade could change the goalie landscape in Calgary in a hurry, however, and if Wolf gets into even a few games, a trade for one of the two incumbents could materialize sooner rather than later.

Jesper Wallstedt (MIN)

With Marc-Andre Fleury signed through 2023-24, it will likely be another year before we see Wallstedt up with the Wild full time. Like the other two goalies profiled here, however, he has so much talent that if you give him an inch, he might just take a mile. He is incredibly calm in the crease, efficient with his movements, and consistently strong on the angles. His AHL numbers improved as the year went along and he became accustomed to AHL shooters; it is only a matter of time until he is stymying snipers at the NHL level.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.