Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades – Boston Bruins
Brad Hayward
2023-08-10
For the last 20 years (13 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.
This is only partly a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but more in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead, and the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worth owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what we take into consideration when looking at the depth chart, and the player projections for each team.
"It is with a full heart, and a lot of gratitude that today I am announcing my retirement as a professional hockey player." Farewell #37.
And with that lead-in, the Boston Bruins.
Gone: Patrice Bergeron, Taylor Hall, Tyler Bertuzzi, David Krejci, Garnet Hathaway, Dmitry Orlov, Nick Foligno, Thomas Nosek, and Connor Clifton.
Wow. Obviously, the biggest departure is Bergeron, the heart of this team and a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. But the sheer quantity leaps out at everyone, too. It's a combined 257 points from '22-'23. With raises given to David Pastrňák and Jeremy Swayman this year, and to top d-men Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm last season, the trade-deadline acquisitions (and others) no longer fit under a salary cap that rose only one million dollars. It's going to hurt.
Incoming: Morgan Geekie, James van Riemsdyk, Milan Lucic, Jesper Boqvist, Kevin Shattenkirk.
… and as unimpressive (relatively) as this group is, they could all be in the Bruins' opening night lineup. JVR, now age 34, produced zero seasons of 50 points in his five past years with the Flyers, and only 29 points (61 games) in 2022-23. Yet he's projected into the top-six, and Geekie, who was ineffective enough for Seattle to cut back his playoff ice time (4 points in 13 games), fits in as third-line center. Geekie's career scoring is 0.35 points per game.
Ready for full-time (or to make major contributions?): Ian Mitchell, Fabian Lysell, Mason Lohrei, Reilly Walsh.
Mitchell was acquired in the trade that sent Taylor Hall to Chicago, and with all of 16 points in a career 82 games, he might get the first shot at a third defensive pairing. Fantasy managers have been slow to grab Lysell (1% rostered in Yahoo), since Boston went all-in with veterans for their aborted playoff run this spring, but this 2021 first-round pick is their best forward prospect. Ideally, he'll get a call-up early, and then probably be back and forth from the Providence Bruins and the big club. Lohrei (61 points in 71 games, playing two seasons for Ohio State) and Harvard-grad Walsh (two years older at age 24, and with three AHL seasons under his belt) are each hoping to see action. None are fantasy relevant for 2022-23.
Impact of changes: The Bruins are not the same powerhouse team, not even close. The Atlantic Division will be stronger this year, and they'll be weaker. A year ago, many prognosticators (including yours truly) had Boston fighting to even scratch out a wild card spot, and then we were amazed by a record-setting regular season. But now they'll need a career year from new first-line center Pavel Zacha, and big contributions from Jake DeBrusk, Charlie Coyle, and others listed above. To play old-style defensive hockey? It's not who they are, and won't work.
Fantasy outlook: Individually, Pastrnak is a top-five player in the NHL. Sixty goals again may be unattainable, but he'll have 50, barring injury. McAvoy will still run an effective power play, if not quite as awesome. A full season after Brad Marchand's hip surgeries, and he's still elite. 30 goals and 75 points seem about right. He may even acquire the "C" on his sweater. And the goalkeeping needs to just be nearly as good, and both guys to stay healthy.
Player focus: Pavel Zacha. Zacha should be a prime middle-round fantasy draft gamble. His 57 points last year were already a career-high, and by over twenty! But he may exceed that. Opportunity, added ice time, chemistry with Pastrnak, and likely a PP1 role are all in his favor. At age 26, he's heading into (statistically) his prime. Dobber's fantasy outlook projection has him matching last year’s 57 points, but Boston's team success depends on Zacha. Imagine their lineup if he's ineffective or worse – if he's injured.
In goal, their aces. Linus Ullmark (40-6-1, 1.89 GAA, and the Vezina Trophy), and Jeremy Swayman (24-6-4, 2.27) are the league's best tandem. And that's why Boston is still relevant, but only with a short window.
After 2023-24, the depth problem really begins. No first round picks this spring, nor for the next two years. No center prospect worthy to carry the mantle, and an overall prospect ranking in the league's bottom three. Marchand will be 36 next season. And DeBrusk may need to be traded to find more cap space, or a first-line center. Hope is not what long-term results are built upon.
Boston will need to trade for a first-line center to seriously contend, or certainly next offseason, yet the lack of depth on the present roster suggests this won't come easily. I've had my personal sanity questioned, but sending McAvoy out now for Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin (both with sign-and-trade extensions only) would work for both clubs. McAvoy is young, talented, and popular with the team and fans, but is their best trade chip who doesn't have a no-move clause. Probably not gonna happen, though.
Overall grade: C+ (last year, B… and wow was that too low!)
Check out the rest of the Dobber team previews here.