Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades – Buffalo Sabres
Michael Clifford
2023-08-11
For the last 20 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.
The 21st annual review will appear here on Dobber Hockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.
Enjoy!
Be sure to pick up your copy of the 2023-24 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide.
Gone – Vinnie Hinostroza, Lawrence Pilut, Malcolm Subban, Craig Anderson, Michael Houser
Incoming – Erik Johnson, Connor Clifton, Devin Cooley
Impact of Changes – Unlike some other non-playoff teams, there really wasn't much movement for Buffalo in the offseason. They brought in a pair of defencemen to help shore up a glaring weakness in 2022-23; the Sabres were 26th by both goals against and shots against per minute. Neither signee is a high-end defensive defenceman, but neither is horrific, either, and Clifton has good puck-moving skills. It gives some stability to a blue line with a lot of 25-and-under members. It isn't great news for the bottom-half of their options from a season ago like Henri Jokiharju and Jacob Bryson but shouldn't have much of an impact on Rasmus Dahlin or Owen Power.
Of the five names mentioned as leaving the organization, three are goalies, and the only depth they added (Cooley) is a 26-year-old who's never reached the NHL. They are going to rely on Eric Comrie, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, and Devon Levi in net, with the last name being the most important to know for fantasy.
Ready For Full Time – Lukas Rousek, Devon Levi
Despite having arguably the best prospect pool in the NHL, there may not be many reliable fantasy options to appear in 2023-24 besides Levi. Rousek is now 24 years old and the injury to Jack Quinn has opened a wing spot. He should get a look and could provide good bottom-6 depth for them.
Levi has been a hot topic at Dobber Hockey all summer. For a team that barely missed playoffs, where an extra save or two at any point in the season would have seen them playing hockey in late April, it's hard to imagine them sticking to UPL and Comrie unless one has a stand-out start to the season. They have the cap space to bury any goalie contract they need to in the AHL, which means a shorter leash for those two than there otherwise would be.
Buffalo had a number of rookies on the roster last year and all the good young talent provides roadblocks for everyone. Injuries will hit – they already have – but they have 14 forwards and 9 defencemen on their roster, including Quinn. Without him, they're still at 13, so it gives an idea of the leaps guys like Jiri Kulich, Matthew Savoie, or Isak Rosen have to make. A year from now, the roster may have 3-4 spots open up in the forward mix and that's when the prospects will really come into play. Until then, barring a few injuries or supernova-like explosions, they'll be relegated to cups of coffee in the NHL. Even if they do get a full-time NHL spot, is anyone going to stick in a fantasy-relevant spot in the top-6/top PP?
Fantasy Outlook – Now that New Jersey has reached the next level, Buffalo is the next team in line. They were 3rd in goals per minute last season, trailing only Edmonton and Boston. How, exactly, the top-6 will shake out remains to be seen – one of Alex Tuch or Jeff Skinner could easily be on the second line for most of the year – but all the high-end producers are back, and back with the same top PP unit. The Dobber Guide has their entire top PP unit reaching 70 points and Tage Thompson getting to 90.
The question is what becomes of the rest of the roster. Casey Mittelstadt has turned into a high-end playmaker, and he finished the season with 31 points in 32 games after the All-Star break. It's unlikely he maintains anywhere close to that rate with third line/second PP minutes, but he's one Thompson/Cozens injury away from 70-point potential.
JJ Peterka is becoming a favourite around here and he had a solid shot rate in his rookie season. His ice time is an ongoing concern, though, because he won't penalty kill, he won't play late in games, and he won't get a prime power-play slotting. If he's playing 15 minutes with secondary PPTOI, can he be much more than a 50-point player?
It was a fantastic rookie season for Owen Power whose only stumbling block to ascending the fantasy ranks is Rasmus Dahlin. It is hard to imagine Power overtaking Dahlin for the top PP quintet anytime soon, so he'll have to round out his multi-cat profile to really become valuable in those leagues. That means putting up a lot more hits than 27 in 79 games.
Buffalo is a high-end offensive team with a great coach that has no shortage of top-tier prospects that can fill in if injuries/under-performance become a problem. The entire top PP unit will be targeted, as well as a few depth guys like Mittelstadt and Power, in all formats. Whether even more skaters become relevant remains to be seen, but this is one of the emerging offensive powerhouses in the league, and a bastion of fantasy goodness. Their biggest question mark is in goal but Levi has the talent to become the full-time starter as the season wears on.
Fantasy Grade – A- (last year was C)
Read all the other fantasy grade articles here.