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As expected, David Krejci has announced his retirement:

A statement from David Krejci. pic.twitter.com/tVWAMsWAr8

— Boston Bruins (@NHLBruins) August 14, 2023

Krejci had taken a season off to play to play in his native Czechia, but returned in 2022-23 for a Boston Cup run. He finished the regular season with 56 points in 70 games, his seventh career season averaging at least 0.8 points per game. He finishes his career playing 1032 regular season games, 160 playoff contests, and all of them with Boston. Krejci wound up with 786 regular season points and a Stanley Cup. It was a really good career and all the best to him in retirement.

Fantasy players have been expecting both him and Bergeron to not be around for 2023-24, and this makes Pavel Zacha one of the more intriguing fantasy options this season. It is conceivable he jumps to 18 minutes a night alongside one of Marchand/Pastrnak/DeBrusk, if not two of them, along with top PPTOI.

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The IIHF has ruled that Ivan Fedotov, a prospect goalie in the Philadelphia organization, has a legal contract with the Flyers for 2023-24, meaning he will report to Philly. How this all goes down remains to be seen but The Canadian Press says the ruling sanctions Fedotov for signing with CSKA in the KHL, meaning Fedotov is suspended until December 31^st. If (or how) that affects his status in the NHL is what we need to wait on, but it appears the Flyers will have another goalie in training camp.

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This has nothing to do with fantasy (or maybe it does?) but Cale Makar has been chosen as the NHL '24 cover star:

All Hail Cale 🥬 #NHL24

Stanley Cup Champ, Norris Winner, and your official NHL 24 Cover Athlete

See the full reveal 8/16
➡️ https://t.co/PM1LlFQRAu pic.twitter.com/OFLox3Fym8

— EA SPORTS NHL (@EASPORTSNHL) August 14, 2023

I can't find the tweet but the history of cover athletes and immediate playoff success was recounted and it was startling. Starting from last year we have Trevor Zegras, Auston Matthews, Alex Ovechkin, Matthews again, PK Subban, Connor McDavid, Vladimir Tarasenko, Jonathan Toews, Patrice Bergeron, and Martin Brodeur being the last 10 cover athletes. Out of their 10 regular seasons, only one (Tarasenko, St. Louis, 2016-17) made it past the first round the following season, and none to the Conference Final, let alone the Cup Final. It goes back further than that, but I found it interesting. Meaningless, but interesting.

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I have been doing something I have never done, and that's start working on my projections early. Taking July and August to largely think about anything but hockey is usually the order of operations, but getting rain for most of the last 12 weeks has given me more spare time than anticipated. Thanks, Mother Nature, I guess?

My projections won't be finished until sometime in September – I still procrastinate with the best of them – but I did want to go through some surprising stats from 2022-23. Constantly returning to what happened last season can get tedious, but it is the first full season we've had without COVID interruptions since 2018-19, so it's worth reviewing again. These are some stats that have surprised me as I've started compiling my spreadsheets.

Montreal Scored More Even Strength Goals Than Ottawa

It might not seem possible, given that Montreal had one player (Nick Suzuki) reach the 40-point plateau, but the team scored more even-strength goals (181) than Ottawa (177). On a per-minute basis, the Senators were slightly higher because they played so much on special teams, but that Montreal had one player reach the 40-point mark and still out-scored teams like Detroit and Minnesota on a per-minute basis broke my brain. The league had 199 players reach 40 points, by the way.

The Canadiens are a team that stresses puck control over dump-and-chase, and it can lead to more chances per zone entry. AllThreeZones tracks things like zone entries/exits and scoring-chance assists (SCA). The latter stat helps highlight who is creating scoring chances, rather than finishing them. As a team, Montreal ranked in the top-half of the league by SCA per minute at 5-on-5, and rated closely to other good offensive teams:

Montreal's young group, and a pile of injuries, led to much worse defensive results but it's clear what the coaching staff is stressing offensively. It will be exciting to see what this offence looks like in a year or two.

St. Louis Had a Higher Even Strength Goal Rate Than the New York Rangers

The Blues had just one player reach 70 points (Jordan Kyrou, 73) and just three crack 20 goals, but had a higher EV goal rate than a playoff team with two 90-point players and five 20-goal scorers. It is easy to forget that the Blues went on an absolute tear to finish the season, leading the entire league in EV goals per minute from March 1^st onward.

After a tough start to the campaign (6 points in 10 games to start), Pavel Buchnevich had 39 points in his final 35 games. This may not be a playoff team in 2023-24, but the fantasy goodness will flow like cold beers after a rec league softball game.

Boston's Power Play Was Not Good for Most of the Year

In their first 20 games, up until Thanksgiving, the Bruins were fourth in goals per minute on the power play, trailing only Colorado, Dallas, and Edmonton. David Pastrnak had 14 PPPs in those 20 games, too. From that point onward, Boston was 18^th on the power play, and Pastrnak had 23 PPPs in 62 games.

Everything fell for Boston, including shot rate and shooting percentage. We could chalk it up to the team playing with their food in the second half, but it doesn't breed confidence now that they're missing both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci.

Los Angeles Had the Second-Best Power Play in the Second Half

Speaking of power plays, in calendar 2023, the only team with a higher PP goal rate than Los Angeles was Edmonton, and that's nothing to be ashamed of. The Kings scored as many PP goals (35) in 42 games as Toronto did in 45. It really is something.

How those goals were scored is the issue here. They ran close to a 60/40 split between two power play units, and the top unit with Anze Kopitar was better offensively. What's curious is the second PP unit, with Phillip Danault, was much better in the first half. Arthur Kaliyev getting injured did them no favours.

All told, it led to six Kings skaters, including five forwards, reaching at least 20 PPPs but no one reaching 30. It can give a lot of guys value but also puts a cap on upper-limit PP production, and that's something to keep in mind.

Tim Stützle Was a Top-5 Even Strength Producer in The Second Half

It was a breakout year for the young Sens star, but from January 1^st onward, only Nathan MacKinnon (57), David Pastrnak (48), and Matthew Tkachuk (44) had more EV points than Stützle (42). He was also fourth on a per-minute basis.

We talked about secondary assists last week and Jimmy Stu's second-half secondary assist performance was only 80^th percentile, or not close to the league leaders. His shooting percentage was a bit high (19%) but still a far cry from the leaders like Andrei Kuzmenko (28.3%), Pavel Zacha (25.5%), and Dawson Mercer (23.4%). He is a genuine 100-point threat for the 2023-24 season, especially if the blue line can stay healthy.  

Miro Heiskanen Had as Many Second-Half Power-Play Points as Jason Robertson

If someone had told me in September of 2022 that Miro Heiskanen would put up 73 points – more than double his prior career-best mark of 35 – I would have put a healthy sum of money on him to win the Norris Trophy. That he finished 7^th in Norris voting highlights the amount of elite defencemen in the NHL.

The surge in Heiskanen's production was due to having 34 PPPs after managing just 37 in his first 275 career games. Over half (18) of those came in the second half, a total that equaled Robertson's PP output. I am not really sure what to do with that information except that it stunned me just how proficient Heiskanen was on the PP, and how fast it happened. I thought it might take a couple years to really find his groove, but it took maybe a few weeks? A superlative player.

Moritz Seider Had 30 Points in 47 Second-Half Games

Seider began his 2022-23 campaign with 2 points in 10 games, and 12 points in 35. It was a brutal first few months and he was eminently droppable in non-banger formats. He turned things around in a big way with 30 points over his final 47 contests, a 52-point pace. The young rearguard posted 11 PPPs in that span after managing just four in his first 35 outings.

Shayne Gostisbehere being signed really muddles the top PP situation. Seider was over three PP minutes per game in that productive stretch while Jake Walman was under 90 seconds. If Seider winds up in the Walman role, it puts 40 points in doubt for him.  

Evan Bouchard's Individual Points Percentage Was Very Normal

IPP is simply the rate at which a player garners a point when his team scores a goal with that player on the ice. Among the 142 defencemen that had at least 300 minutes played from March 1^st onward, Bouchard was 72^nd by IPP at 37.25%. Over his first three seasons, Bouchard's IPP was 50%, so he was even under what he had done to that point. He still managed 19 points in 21 games.

What helped Bouchard in that stretch was being on the ice for 6.97 goals/60 minutes, more than a full goal higher than the next-closest defenceman (Brandon Montour, 5.95/60). Edmonton shot 17.3% with Bouchard on the ice at all strengths over the final 21 games, and that's way too high. The league leader over the full season was Vince Dunn at 13.1%, and he was the only blue liner over 12.5%. There is regression coming for Bouchard, but a full season of PP1 ice time should help assuage any regression fears, and there's even room for IPP improvement.

Stefan Noesen was Top-5 by Individual Expected Goals Per 60 Minutes (ixG/60)

There were 25 forwards to skate at least 1000 minutes last season and manage at least 1.35 ixG/60. Of those 25 players, only two had goal rates under 1.0/60 minutes: Joel Eriksson Ek (0.93) and Stefan Noesen (0.81). Of the 15 forwards that were over 1.4 ixG/60, Noesen was the only one to finish lower than 1.15 goals/60. In other words, he had an outlier season, and then an outlier season within that outlier season. A Matroyshka doll of outliers.

Noesen played a lot of the net-front role at all strengths and it's why he had a high ixG/60. If he can have a better finishing season and maintain his role(s), he has legitimate 20-goal potential. Relying on a depth Carolina forward to improve their shooting percentage feels like a fool's errand, though.

Nikolaj Ehlers Led All Forwards in Second Half 5-on-5 Shot Attempt Rate

I have a lot of concerns about Winnipeg's offence. Tracking data from AllThreeZones gives us an indication of how little the Jets created off the rush in 2022-23, with the encircled teams all putting up similar rush shot rates:

Of the seven teams in our red circle, none of them finished top-15 by goals per minute at 5-on-5. Add the lower-rated teams in Carolina, Anaheim, and Arizona, and none of those squads finished top-14 by goals per minute at 5-on-5. That makes 10 teams with roughly the same rush shot rate as Winnipeg, or worse, and none of them close to a top-10 goal-scoring rate.

It is why it was heartening to see Ehlers regain his shot attempt rate in the second half of the season, edging out shooters like Timo Meier and David Pastrnak. The problem? Out of 302 forwards with at least 400 minutes of 5-on-5 time in the second half, Ehlers was 216^th by TOI per game, earning less than Blake Lizotte, Tyson Jost, and Noah Gregor. High shot rates are nice, but if Rick Bowness is going to treat Ehlers like a third liner, it doesn't really matter. Let's hope it was related to his return from injury and not a real sign of things to come.

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We will unfortunately end with some heart-wrenching news that came down on Monday afternoon:

It is we great sadness that we announce the passing of Rodion Amirov. Two years ago, Rodion was diagnosed with a brain tumour. From the moment he received the news, he refused to speak in the negative, determined to enjoy every day, facing it with the same positive attitude he… pic.twitter.com/ye6TdAjGZc

— Dan Milstein-Hockey (@HockeyAgent1) August 14, 2023

As noted by Dan Milstein, Amirov had been diagnosed with a brain tumor and battling this terrible disease for two years. He was just 21 years old.

There is not much to add here. This is a tragic loss of a young man with his whole life ahead of him at the hands of a cruel and brutal illness. Thoughts and best wishes go out to his family and friends during this very difficult time.