Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades – Edmonton Oilers

Brad Hayward

2023-08-19

For the last 20 years (12 with The Hockey News), Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but more in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead, and the foreseeable future.  Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worth owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what we take into consideration when looking at the depth chart, and the player projections for each team.

Today, the Edmonton Oilers. 

Gone:  Kailer Yamamoto, Klim Kostin, Nick Bjugstad, Mike Smith

Edmonton has only seven forwards who make over $1 million dollars, and losing some (relatively) inexpensive forwards makes their squad have even less depth than last year. Each of the forwards they lost, landed well in other cities for an average of under $2 million. They have basically no cap flexibility, though, so these guys had to go. Smith didn't play in 2022-23, and retires with 299 career wins. 

Incoming:  Connor Brown, Lane Pederson, Drake Caggiula 

An ACL injury requiring surgery ended Brown's season after just four games with Washington, after three seasons in Ottawa. He was acquired for his history of success and chemistry with Connor McDavid back in juniors. A top line deployment could see him crushing his career-average numbers – if it works. Pederson may center line four, after a six-year career spent mostly in the AHL. 

Ready for full time:  Philip Broberg, selected 8th overall in 2019. He's a 6-3 defenseman who's had a taste of NHL action: 69 games over the past two years and nine games of playoff action (no points) this past spring.  Edmonton has a shortage of defensive-minded blue-liners, and the opportunity is wide open. Dylan Holloway, a first-round pick from a year later, is projected into the third line, but if he can excel in the preseason, a top six spot could happen. 

Impact of changes:  The top two lines and the power play carries the Oilers through the regular season, but depth below this has been sorely lacking. Simply, it's not good enough. Connor Brown to replace Yamamoto or Kostin doesn't address the weakness. Defensively, there's the same issue, and if (a big IF) Broberg can land a spot, it'll help. But he's not fantasy relevant this season.

Fantasy outlook:  Anyone who plays fantasy hockey, even in a recreational league with friends, knows that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are both top-three players in the NHL.  McDavid has been scoring at a historic level, just under 1.5 points per game for his career, trailing in that category only Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, and Mike Bossy. But there are seven current players (ten if you count unrostered Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Phil Kessel) who have won three Stanley Cup Championships, and Edmonton desperately needs to find a way to win one while their offense rides this momentum. 

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It's the supporting cast that needs a jolt – of scoring for us fantasy managers, but of 200-foot play, of timely saves and defense, and of penalty-killing. These aren't sexy statistics, but they are the intangibles which have kept McDavid and Draisaitl out of the Cup Final for all of their careers. Looking at the Oilers' bottom-six and third defense pair says they'll struggle in April and May, again. Mattias Ekholm might be the most important player, after the top two, on the roster – he had a plus-28 for the Oilers in just 21 games after the trade deadline last year.

Many hockey writers don't like (or value) the plus-minus statistic, but between McDavid and Draisaitl, they had a combined 139 even-strength points, and were a combined +29 for the season. This clearly shows that they got points, but their opponents also scored plenty of goals while the star players over-committed at 5-on-5. Defensively responsible play hasn't been a focus, and the gaudy offensive statistics haven't won a Cup. Will it change? Fantasy managers count stats, actual managers count championships. And no player in the Oilers' bottom six is worth rostering in fantasy.

In goal, Jack Campbell has the larger salary, but Stuart Skinner outplayed him (2.75 GAA, 0.914 sv%), and should be considered the starter.

If there's a young talent to watch, it's Evan Bouchard. After Tyson Barrie was dealt to Nashville for the aforementioned Ekholm, Bouchard became the quarterback for the league's best power-play.  Beyond the top two forwards, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins also had over 100 points, with the majority tallied on the man advantage. RNH may not break 80 this season, but the power play isn't likely to regress much. On the back end, Darnell Nurse and Ekholm each had ONE power-play point. And the Oilers play their first unit for 90-100 seconds – when they haven't scored sooner. Bouchard will surely have his PP1 spot again. He should be drafted accordingly, in the top 100. 

After 2023-24: Draisaitl is eligible for a contract extension next summer, and he's drastically underpaid at $8.5M – his salary ranks 43rd in the NHL. Salary-cap league managers know this.  If the Oilers would lose in an early playoff round again, would Draisaitl hold off signing? The cupboard of prospects isn't impressive. Their window to be a true Cup contender could be only two years. 

Overall grade: B.  Last year, A.

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Jan 22 - 19:01 N.J vs BOS
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DARREN RADDYSH T.B
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KAAPO KAKKO SEA
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41.9 MIKAEL PYYHTIA SEAN KURALY KENT JOHNSON

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