Ramblings: Most Consistent on Frozen Tools (Aug 20)

Ian Gooding

2023-08-20

The Most Consistent option on Frozen Tools shows the number of games a player has recorded at least one point while showing a consistency percentage (the percentage of their games where they recorded at least a point). You can also find the number and percentage of games where they recorded at least two points.

To find this information, click More Stats to show the full grid of buttons (if needed), then under the Production heading select the Most Consistent option.

Here are the players who recorded a point in at least 70% of their games in 2022-23 (minimum 40 GP).

NamePosTeamGPPTSPTS/GPGP w/ PtConsistency %
CONNOR MCDAVIDCEDM821531.877591.46
LEON DRAISAITLCEDM801281.606885.00
NIKITA KUCHEROVRT.B821121.376882.93
MITCHELL MARNERRTOR80991.246682.50
DAVID PASTRNAKRBOS821131.386680.49
NATHAN MACKINNONCCOL711111.565577.46
AUSTON MATTHEWSCTOR74851.155675.68
ELIAS PETTERSSONCVAN801021.286075.00
KIRILL KAPRIZOVLMIN67751.125074.63
JACK HUGHESCN.J78991.275874.36
JASON ROBERTSONLDAL821091.336073.17
MATTHEW TKACHUKRFLA791091.385670.89

Here are the players who recorded at least two points in a game at least 40% of the time.

NamePosTeamGPPTSPTS/GPGP w/ 2+Pts2+Pts %
CONNOR MCDAVIDCEDM821531.874554.9
NATHAN MACKINNONCCOL711111.563650.7
LEON DRAISAITLCEDM801281.603746.3
MATTHEW TKACHUKRFLA791091.383443
DAVID PASTRNAKRBOS821131.383441.5
JASON ROBERTSONLDAL821091.333441.5
JACK HUGHESCN.J78991.273241
MIKKO RANTANENRCOL821051.283340.2

Not surprisingly, the most consistent players all have high point totals, and none of these players should jump out as surprises. Connor McDavid had at least a point in 91.46% of his games, then Leon Draisaitl had at least a point in 85% of his games. McDavid was also good for at least two points in just over half the games he played.

Are some players prone to more feast-or-famine results than others? Maybe some fantasy players prefer players who explode for points one day and go dry the next, while others might prefer predictable yet more modest, spread-out results every day. Here are some comparisons of players who achieved similar point totals, but got to those point totals very differently.

Mitch Marner vs. Mikko Rantanen

Both Marner and Rantanen play right wing and both posted similar point totals (99 PTS in 80 GP for Marner, 105 PTS in 82 GP for Rantanen). Yet that's where the similarities diverge. For starters, Rantanen posted nearly twice as many goals (55) as Marner (30). Rantanen should be considered a higher-ranked player in general over Marner (other peripheral categories aside) because his point total is more goal-concentrated, and assists are easier to attain than goals. Yet could Marner be more appealing than Rantanen in a different way?

Marner posted a consistency percentage of 82.50% in 2022-23, which was bested by only three players (McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nikita Kucherov). However, Rantanen's consistency percentage of 67.07% groups him with the likes of Dylan Larkin, Zach Hyman, Brock Nelson, and Jesper Bratt. Those certainly aren't terrible players, but all are clearly a notch or two below Rantanen as scorers. Flip it another way and Rantanen had 33 games with at least two points, while Marner had "only" 25. You may also remember that Marner had a point streak of 23 games starting in late October and ending in mid-December.

Anze Kopitar vs. Jesper Bratt

Kopitar and Bratt both played a full 82 games and were only separated by one point (74 for Kopitar and 73 for Bratt). However, their consistency percentages differed significantly – 53.66% for Kopitar but 67.07% for Bratt (now we're putting Bratt in a different light!) If you needed multiple points, Kopitar was the better bet with 22 games with 2+ points while Bratt recorded just 15 games with 2+ points. However, Kopitar let you down nearly 50% of the time if you needed a point.

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Similar to Marner, you may remember Bratt's 11-game point streak to start the season. That point streak wasn't just Bratt recording the bare minimum in points. In fact, five of those 11 games during the point streak resulted in two or more points for Bratt.

Vincent Trocheck vs. Drake Batherson

Not only were Trocheck and Batherson separated by just a point (63 for Trocheck, 62 for Batherson), but they finished with the same number of goals (22). Those statlines were practically mirror images of each other, since they each played 82 games. Yet their consistency percentages were remarkably different – 60.98% for Batherson but just 48.78% for Trocheck. Batherson finished with 50 games with at least one points, while Trocheck had 40. Yet Trocheck provided nearly double the number of 2+ point games (21) that Batherson (11) did.

Darnell Nurse vs. Moritz Seider

This variance can occur for defensemen as well, although there aren't as many instances of it. Nurse and Seider both played a full 82 games and were separated by just a single point (43 for Nurse, 42 for Seider). Yet Nurse recorded a point in 46.34% of his games, while Seider had at least one in just 35.37% of games. By contrast, Seider recorded 2+ points in a game nine times, while Nurse did so only four times.

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One Comment

  1. Jake Blumes 2023-08-20 at 11:22

    I like that consistency stat ever since you introduced it a couple years ago. I would take Marner over Rantanen for instance. It helps you win more weeks if you’re in a weekly head to head pool.

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