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In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll compare first and second-half performances from last year for a few players. Season-long production often fails to capture certain storylines, so it can be helpful to break down the whole into its parts. Understanding factors responsible for different performances at different stages of the campaign allows us to project how a player will perform going forward. Without further ado, here are a few players who performed better in one half compared to the other.

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Although Vasilevskiy started the season on a higher note than he finished on, there isn't a huge difference in his numbers between the first and second half. This wouldn't be a big deal in isolation, but a closer look reveals this to be a troubling pattern – with Vasilevskiy fading down the stretch in recent years. As you can see in the tables below, his numbers in the first half have been better in the second half during each of the past three seasons:

As we consider options for the pattern above, fatigue is one of the first that comes to mind.

There's a compounding effect to the physical toll an athlete experiences over the course of a season. As such, it would make sense that Vasilevskiy, who sees a high volume of starts and doesn't get much rest, would be more affected by physical strain later in the campaign. On a related note, prior to each of the seasons listed above, Tampa went on a long run to the Cup Final. Although that was great for the organization and fanbase, it left Vasilevskiy with shorter summers and less time to prepare for the regular seasons that followed. It'll be interesting to see if Vasilevskiy performs better in the second half this year, considering he had a longer offseason than usual following Tampa's early exit from the 2023 playoffs. With Vasilevskiy's fantasy stock slightly lower than it's been in recent years, there may be an opportunity for you to get him at a discounted price in fantasy drafts this season.

Sam Reinhart

Reinhart thrived in a somewhat sheltered role during the 2021-2022 campaign. Playing on Florida's third line, he faced weaker opponents and started more of his shifts in the offensive zone than the defensive zone. Such favourable utilization fuelled an 86-point pace. Last season, Reinhart was thrust into a more difficult role, facing tougher competition as a member of Florida's top line. His overall production suffered as he posted a 67-point pace. Although that result is disappointing at first glance, a closer look reveals Reinhart's numbers are weighed down by a slow start. After tallying 26 in his first 41 appearances, he posted a point-per-game pace over his last 41 outings.  Perhaps he just needed some time to adjust to a new role with new line mates?

Brad Marchand

Last week, we talked about how 35-year-old Brad Marchand might have a harder time producing this season without long-time linemate Patrice Bergeron. Although we also discussed Marchand's underwhelming output last year, we didn't get into the contrast between his performance in the first half versus the second half. After posting 43 points in his first 37 appearances (1.16 points/game), he tallied just 24 in his final 36 (0.67 points/game). As a reminder, Marchand underwent major surgery on both of his hips last offseason. He ended up returning a month ahead of schedule. Now, this is purely my speculation, but it seems plausible that he performed his best early on when he was still feeling fresh. As the season progressed, more stress would have accumulated on his recently repaired hips, making it harder for him to maintain the same level of production. Such a theory is supported by the fact that Marchand made comments late in the campaign which suggested he wasn't quite feeling himself. Now, only time will tell whether this past offseason has given him a chance to refuel and thrive for a full 82-game slate, or if the effects of such a major surgery end up lasting for a longer term.

Rasmus Dahlin

The 23-year-old blueliner had an incredible start to the 2022-23 campaign, posting 47 points in his first 39 games. Notably, 23 of those points came with the man advantage. During the second half, he put up a more pedestrian 26 points, including just nine power play tallies. His reduced output down the stretch seems to have been a product of the team's power play situation. In the first half, the Sabres sat near the top of the league in both power-play opportunities per game (3.70), and success rate with the man advantage (27.7%). They weren't as fortunate in the second half, where they saw a more modest 2.88 power plays per game and converted on just 18.2% of their chances. Although Dahlin certainly possesses elite individual talent, achieving the height of his offensive potential requires the team around him to be firing on all cylinders.

Rickard Rakell

After putting up 25 points in his first 41 outings, Rakell found a new gear down the stretch, tallying 35 points in his last 41. It seems an increased power-play role served as the catalyst for his increased output. During the first half, he saw 52% of the team's time with the man advantage and posted eight PP points. The second half gave him a 65% share of Pittsburgh's power play time, which he used to post 13 points. With Erik Karlsson joining the Penguins, Rakell is at risk of falling back into a secondary power-play role, which would certainly limit his offensive ceiling this year.