Fantasy Hockey Mailbag: Hedman; Wilson; Theodore; Tuch; Svechnikov; Byram; Kaliyev; Ehlers; E. Kane; Meier & More

Rick Roos

2023-08-23

Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Mario)

I'm in a 12 team, keep 4 league with categories of G/A/+-/PIM/PPPts/SOG/HIT/BLK/W/GAA/SV/SO. Here are my keeper possibilities:

F – Vincent Trocheck, Steven Stamkos, Joel Farabee, Alex Tuch, Dylan Strome, Jonathan Marchessault, Brock Nelson, Joel Eriksson-Ek, Filip Forsberg, Andrei Svechnikov

D – John Carlson, Victor Hedman, Jacob Trouba, Radko Gudas, Alex Pietrangelo, Adam Larsson

G – Frederick Andersen, Thatcher Demko, Joonas Korpisalo

My first thought was to keep Stamkos, Hedman, Svechnikov and Demko, but I'm unsure about Hedman and Demko in particular. Who would you keep?

For starters, Svechnikov is a lock. I know I've spent many columns saying he's overrated, and I still do believe that. But overrated doesn't mean not keepable, especially in a league where three of eight of the categories (PIM. SOG, HIT) are areas he excels to an extent whereby even if he doesn't become the top tier scorer many predict, he's still pretty darn amazing in this format.

Not knowing what the starting line-ups are makes it difficult to truly assess Hedman, as well as Demko. But looking at the players you own, ten of them are forwards, six are d-men and three are goalies. That's a total of 19 players, with nearly a third being rearguards, so I do think you keep one. Do you then opt for Carlson instead of Hedman? Yes, Hedman is almost a full year younger; however, due to all the playoffs games Hedman has logged, they have roughly the same miles on their legs. Of the two, Carlson has been the more consistent scorer. It is true that we don't know if Carson will come back as the same player he was before he got hurt, plus the Caps have seen their goal rate drop in three straight seasons. But we also can't overlook the "warts" on Hedman, most notably that he's seemingly no longer "the guy" in Tampa and Carlson outpaced him in four of the past five seasons. But Hedman also had injury issues that slowed him last season yet he still played pretty well, and the Bolts are a team likely to outscore Washington by a good margin, padding Hedman's point total in the process. Their outputs in other categories balance out pretty well. Still though, Carlson's track record, plus continued status as a "the guy" d-man, causes me to favor him over Hedman ever so slightly.

The next question is whether to keep a goalie. I'd do so only if most teams also do. If I'm keeping one of your goalies, it's Andersen, as the Canes brought him back for a reason and are poised to be a top team again, whereas Vancouver might still be in shambles, and who knows if Demko will rebound.

If Demko is not kept, one option is to keep Hedman in that spot, making it so you don't actually have to choose between him and Carlson. I kind of like that idea, as I think even a toned down Hedman will be better than most of your forwards.

If you have one spot left, I do like Stamkos. One of these seasons he will slow; however, until he does he seems like a very solid keep, as he shoots and piles up the PPPts, plus even chips in with more hits and blocks than nearly all forwards with point per game downside.

If Andersen isn't kept, and both Carlson and Hedman aren't, who would be the fourth keeper? I like Tuch, who, although a Band-Aid Boy, is also now a top six fixture for a Sabres team that is on the way to becoming an offensive powerhouse. And Tuch is right at his big guy 400 game breakout threshold, such that he might even have another gear. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Grant)

I’m in a 10 team only limited keeper league. We keep 4F, 2D, 1G, then draft to fill out a 10F, 6D, 2G roster. I won the league last year and in doing so I traded away my picks in the first three rounds. My "sure thing" keepers will be Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Elias Pettersson, and Quinn Hughes, leaving me one d-man and one goalie to keep. Focusing on the defenseman, I've kept Victor Hedman for many years, but I'm wondering if I should go younger with someone like Luke Hughes, who I picked up at year’s end, or Shea Theodore, who's my other option. Is it time to let Hedman go?

Two questions in, and both with concerns about Hedman. I can see why. In truth, he only had one season of 70+ point production; and Mikhail Sergachev not only will be making more money than Hedman starting in 2023-24, but Hedman seems to have ceded his top dog status to Sergachev. Let's also not forget that Hedman was injured for a chunk of last season, and his IPPs, overall and on the PP, were quite low for him at 44.5% and 48.3%. In particular, his IPP on the PP had been above 70% for three straight seasons prior to 2022-23. Of course that came while he was on PP1, and it's no longer likely he'll occupy that role, which is a problem because the drop off in talent from the first unit to the second is quite pronounced, as is the TOI they receive. In other words, even if Hedman's IPP on the PP was to rebound, if he's "stuck" on PP2 that might not mean much in the grand scheme of things.

Still, I don't think I can say that Hedman has fallen to an extent where I could recommend a team keep either Luke Hughes or Theodore over him. Hughes can be a 50+ point d-man in the near future, as he looked NHL ready. As long as Dougie Hamilton is in the picture Hughes probably won't be able to truly shine. Granted, Hamilton has a history of making a second season splash for a team and then fading; but he looked completely dialed in last season and the Devils are a team on the rise who will look to Hamilton for blueline offense. As for Theodore, he teases poolies every season with stretches of strong play; but either he slows or gets hurt, or both. There's also the reality that Alex Pietrangelo remains in the picture, such that neither of them likely will be deployed so as to truly shine. Although Hedman's luster is wearing off, he's still in a position to score 60 points due to his skill and team, and that sets him above the other two, even accounting for Hughes' seemingly bright future. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Jason)

I'm in a 10 team, H2H league with standard (Yahoo) roster size and bench spots. Categories are G, A, PPP, SOG, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV, SO. The league is a limited keep 4, in that you need to give up the draft pick in rounds where you drafted your keepers, and you can only keep a player for 3 years. My keeper locks are Igor Shesterkin (3rd round) and Roman Josi (6th round), with the other two to be decided between Juuse Saros (4th round) Jack Eichel (13th round), Evander Kane (15th round), Timo Meier (16th round), Jeff Skinner (also 16th round), and Clayton Keller (also 16th round).

I was big on Meier and Kane (and actually traded for both so that I could keep them), but am less so with the trade to NJ for Meier and – at least in my view – the relatively slow going for Kane after his injury. But I think it might be too difficult to pass up both of their hits and shots. And both have the potential to be multi-cat monsters. I'm leaning towards keeping those two. What would you do?

First off, with Shesterkin as an option a mere round earlier, I'm not keeping Saros. But Saros is likely one of the top five goalies in the league, so if I'm you I trade him with……one of Meier or Kane. Yes, I realize their multi-cat prowess is outstanding; but I did not like what I saw from Meier in New Jersey, as he and Jack Hughes seemingly can't play on the same line due to both being shoot first guys, while Meier is not the ideal linemate for a two-way forward like Nico Hischier. Meier also has never been strong on the PP; so even if he's on the top unit, I see him not factoring heavily into man advantage scoring given the other options the Devils have. As for Kane, although he's likely locked into a top six role, I feel that the "new car smell" of him in Edmonton wore off once he got hurt, as after he came back he seemed like the indifferent Kane we'd seen all too often in recent seasons. Lest anyone say that being in the top six in Edmonton is all one needs to succeed, tell that to Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto. Plus, Kane also has never been very good on the PP either, and likely will be on the outside looking in when it comes to PP1, which should have Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman on it just like last year which led to them being the top producing PP in all of the NHL. Long story short, I like trading Saros and either Kane or Meier.

If it was me, of the two I'd trade Kane, as Meier is being paid so much the Devils will likely do whatever they can to try and see him succeed, plus the Kane PP2 factor. Who to get in return? I'd go for one of the top d-men in the league, or perhaps an up and comer like Evan Bouchard or Mikhail Sergachev who likely will be round bargains and/or keepable for a longer periods of time.

That leaves one keeper spot for Eichel, Meier, Keller or Skinner. Right away I rule out Skinner, who won't score as much as Eichel or Keller and is weak in multi-cat. Of the remaining three, and despite what I said above, I think it has to be Meier given the categories, as although I think Eichel and Keller could outpoint Meier by a wide margin, neither of them is very solid across the board in multi-cat like Meier is. Try to dangle both of these other two in trades though, as their round bargain status, plus Eichel's strong playoffs and Keller's huge second half, might be able to net you a draft pick in return.

One thing I'll say is if you do trade for a top tier d-man, there's a universe in which you don't keep Josi too, opting instead for Eichel or Keller. I think their round bargain status has that much lure, plus Josi should be easily tradable. And if I had to decide between Eichel and Keller, probably I'd choose Keller, just because Vegas has never in its – admittedly brief – history had a point per game scorer and they don't give their top guys the normal oodles of ice time either overall or on the PP. Keller, on the other hand, will get star treatment in terms of ice time and deployment, with 85 point downside. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Steven)

I’m in a 12 team keeper. Our roster consists of 23 players. We can only dress up to 9F, 6D, 1G per night. Man games are maxed at 82 x 16, where the 16 corresponds to the maximum amount of players we can dress per night, and you’d be surprised at how many people leave goalie man games on the table. We have a cap set at the NHL cap (total salary, not AAV), plus 10%. We can keep 13 players. We also have 10 free agent moves we can make each year. Points are as follows: G(3), A(2), +/-(1), PIM(0.2), SHG(1), SOG(0.1), W(4), L(-2), GA(-1.6), SV(0.2), SO(5).

Here is my roster as of the end of 2022-23, with 2023-24 salary denoted in parentheses:

F – Mason MacTavish ($0.925M), Jake DeBrusk ($4.0M), Ryan Hartman ($2.0M), Johnny Gaudreau ($9.75M), Leon Draisaitl ($8.0M), Kirill Marchenko ($0.85M), Nick Suzuki ($10.0M), Jordan Kyrou ($9.0M), Nicolaj Ehlers ($6.5M), Robert Thomas ($9.0M), Evgeni Malkin ($6.0M)

D – Nick Perbix ($1.125M), Mikey Anderson ($4.2M), Quinn Hughes ($8.6M), Jon Merril ($1.2M), Arber Xekaj ($0.835M), John Carlson ($6.0M), Andrew Peeke ($2.75M), Jonas Sieganthaler ($4.25M), Ty Smith (RFA)

G – Thomas Greiss (UFA), Ville Husso ($4.75M), Tristan Jarry ($4.5M)

Obvious keepers – to me at least – are Hughes, Carlson, Siegenthaler, Draisaitl, Gaudreau, MacTavish, Malkin, Jarry, and Husso. The next tier probably consists of Thomas, Kyrou and Ehjers. Obvious drops are Anderson, Greiss, and Merrill. Beyond that though I need advice. I’m finding it difficult to balance between salary and potential. What do you recommend?

Let's start with goalies. I do like that in Husso and Jarry you'll have what should be two 55+ start guys, as playing volume is important since saves are what will mainly determine goalie value. With the need to max out starts for the goalie position, and there being 12 teams and 13 keepers, I can approve of keeping two goalies, and these two seem solid, especially given what they're earning.

Looking at your sure things, I'm not at all on board with Siegenthaler. Maybe if he made half of what he did; however, he's not exactly cheap. Yes, he's very plus and chips in with points here and there; but is that enough to justify a keep at his cost? Not from where I sit. In fact, I'd almost go so far as to say I'd rather keep only 12 than to keep him.

Thomas also is very iffy given the stats. It'd be one thing if he'd parlayed his 2021-22 success into the 2022-23 season, but he didn't. His paltry goal and SOG totals are tough pills to swallow at a $9M cap hit. I'd definitely swap in Kyrou for him. Yes, I realize Kyrou's +/- was dreadful; however, it has only one way to go, and that's up. Plus, it didn't affect his scoring, which continues to be solid, plus he does more for your team than Thomas.

I like Ehlers also as a keeper too. He's going to finally be given a chance to make an impact; and in view of how well he fared without PP1 time and often being stuck with inferior linemates, I for one think he should rise to the opportunity he'll receive and post career bests. His cap his is pretty reasonable for a guy who, when all is said and done, could post 85+ points.

Someone I'd consider too is Hartman. Yes, he came back to earth in a big way last season; however, he ended the campaign with 14 points in 18 games and the team does seem to want him to work on a line with Kirill Kaprizov, such that they kept coming back to that combo even as Hartman's production was not up to par. And at $2M, he's a potential steal if he can get you 60+ points, which I see as being very much doable.

I also like DeBrusk at $4M, as he's coming off his best ever season and in 2023-24 will be playing for a UFA contract, which could finally get him out of Boston, a place he hasn't seemed to want to be for some time. Yes, Boston's top six needs centers now, not wings; but the exodus of both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci all but assures that DeBrusk will be on PP1. Between that and an ironclad top six spot, I like his odds to push to a 70-point-pace, which would be quite nice at his cap hit.

Your keeps are then Hughes, Carlson, Draisaitl, Gaudreau, MacTavish, Malkin, Jarry, Husso, Ehlers, Kyrou, Hartman, and DeBrusk. That leaves room for one more, or you stop at 12. My take is roll the dice on Marchenko. With goals counting for as much as they do, he could be a very nice add to your team. If he doesn't pan out, it's a small price to pay. Those are the 13 I'd recommend. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Ted)

I'm in a 10 team league with rosters of 35 players. I retooled in 2022-23. For the draft I have picks 3, 8, 10, 12, 13, 18 . That means I need to drop 6 players at minimum. The way scoring works is the output of the top 4 C, LW and RW count, plus that of the top 6 D, and the top 2 G. It's 1 point for each goal and each assist, 2 points for a goalie win and an extra 2 points for a shutout.

Listed below is my roster. Which six would you drop? Also listed are players who will be available to draft. Who would you target there? My current thinking is I cut Paul, Copp, Lundkvist, and Bean? Do you agree, and if so who would the other two be?

Roster:

C – Mark Scheifele, Dylan Cozens, Trevor Zegras, Dylan Larkin, Nicolas Paul, Andrew Copp, Kent Johnson, Wyatt Johnston, Connor McMichael, Marco Rossi, Ryan Hartman

LW – Alex Debrincat, Filip Forsberg, Gabe Vilardi, Nick Schmaltz, Mattias Macelli, Ivan Barbashev, Nicolaj Ehlers, Jonathan Berggren, William Eklund

📢 advertisement:

RW – Matt Boldy, David Perron, Dawson Mercer, Victor Arvidsson, Valeri Nichuskin, Dylan Guenther, Lukas Reichel, Jack Quinn,

D – Aaron Ekblad, Evan Bouchard, Moritz Seider, Jakub Chychrun, Kaiden Guhle, Zach Werenski, Brandt Clarke, Scott Perunovich, Nils Lundkvist, Philip Broberg, Jake Bean

Goalie – Juuse Saros, Carter Hart, Sergei Bobrovsky, Stuart Skinner, Cam Talbot, Filip Gustavsson

Key players available to draft, in addition to the 2023 draft class:

C – Andreas Athanasiou, Cody Glass, Anthony Cirelli, Jonathan Drouin, Peyton Krebs, Nicklas Backstrom, Ridey Greig, Owen Beck, Logan Stankoven

LW – Marcus Johansson, Erik Haula, Evan Rodrigues, Michael Rasmussen, Sammy Blais, Pavel Dorofeyev, Max Pacioretty, Matthew Knies

RW – Arthur Kaliyev, Jakub Vrana, Luke Evangelista, Bobby Brink, Fabian Lysell

Def – Mike Matheson, Travis Sanheim, Cam York, Jake Walman, Ty Smith, Olen Zellweger, Kevin Korchinski, Pavel Mintyukov

Goalies: Pyotr Kochetkov, Adin Hill, Devon Levi, Daniil Tarasov, Joel Hofer, Dustin Wolf, Yaroslav Askarov, Robin Lehner

Your four recommended cuts are 100% on the ball. It's amazing to think that prior to last season Copp had seen his scoring rate rise for six straight campaigns. However, he took a major step back in 2022-23 and with the addition of J.T. Compher it appears Copp is ticketed for the bottom six. Lundkvist still might amount to something, though visions of him and Miro Heiskanen on PP1 with their left and right-handed shots have yet to materialize. In fact Lundkvist looks like he's not on course to fulfill the major promise many felt he had back when he was still in the Big Apple. Paul has an outside chance of somehow making his way up the Tampa line-up; but I'd say it's a long shot and he seems ticketed for the bottom six as well. As for Bean, any chance of him panning out seems to have vanished.

Who, though, are the other drops? I'd normally say Rossi; but with you also having Hartman that covers your Wild bases well. Probably my first drop would be McMichael. Yes, Peter Laviolette brick walled young players like him, and the aging Caps will need to find forwards to plug holes and step in when there are injuries; but I didn't like that McMichael was only okay in the AHL, and this at age 22. Could he still make a mark? Never say never, but there have to be two cuts and on paper I think he's one. As for the other, it's very tough, as I don't see an obvious pick. It might just be Talbot, as you have plenty of other good goalies and I don't trust Talbot's ability to win or stay healthy, so I think he's the last one.

As for the list of players available, I think within the first 18 picks only Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli should be taken from among the 2023 draft picks. Would I take Fantilli at third overall given the other choices? I think so, both because of his upside and your surplus of other picks. Who else would I target with those selections? The names that stand out are Pacioretty, Kaliyev, Drouin, Glass, Evangelista, Vrana, Backstrom, Matheson, York, and Hill.

For certain I like both d-men, as Matheson seized the PP1 gig and ran with it, while a path has been cleared for York to make his mark. Pacioretty is tempting, as if he can come back and be even 75% of his usual self that would be very solid. Vrana should get a shot in the top six; and even if he slides to the third line, the Blues are so balanced he could still post 60-65 points. The Nashville guys are tempting because both played quite well in Q4, although to what extent that was due to the Preds' forward corps being decimated we can't be sure. Still Glass was a former early pick so the raw talent is there, and he's still only 24. As for Evangelista, him and Tommy Novak had great chemistry, but it's not clear if that was a short-term burst. In the end, I'm not sure I grab either. Who I would take though is Kaliyev, as last season he was among the top 25 in SOG/60 minutes and now has a much better chance at meaningful minutes given the exodus of Gabe Villardi and Alex Iafallo. I think if Kaliyev gets a true shot in the top six he could produce 25/25 numbers, with the chance for even more. That leaves one last spot, and I'd say it goes to Hill. Maybe his playoff magic was just that. But he earned himself a nice contract that should put him squarely in the netminder mix for Vegas. His upside is just too high to not take him. The six I'd target, in order, are Fantilli, if he's still there at 3rd overall, then Matheson, Hill, Pacioretty, Vrana, and Kaliyev. If Fantilli is gone, then York would be the last pick.

I realize this means no Drouin, who many see as perhaps playing with Nathan MacKinnon; but I'm not a believer, as if it didn't work for Evan Rodrigues I don't think it will for Drouin. As for Backstrom, I think he's a shell of his former self and I wouldn't be surprised to see him out of the NHL sooner rather than later, and that's even if Evgeni Kuznetsov's trade request is granted. Good Luck.

Question #6 (from JamesBond007777)

I need an analysis of my team. My league is 14 teams HTH, full keeper with 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 5D, 2UTIL, 1G in starting line-ups and 5 Bench plus 4IR plus 15 minors (<100 career NHL games if a skater, <70 if a goalie), with players being able to go back and forth between the main roster and minors. Scoring categories are G, A, BLK, HIT, PIM, SOG, FO%, GWG+ (includes shootout game winners), STP2 (PPPts and SHP); SV, SHO, W, SV%. Here is my team:

C – Evgeni Kuznetsov, Nathan MacKinnon, Tage Thompson (RW), Jon Tavares (LW), Sean Couturier

LW – Johnny Gaudreau, Chris Kreider, Matthew Tkachuk (RW), Zach Hyman (RW), Ross Colton 

RW – Patrick Kane, David Perron (LW), Tyler Seguin (C), Tom Wilson, Mark Stone, Eeli Tolvanen.

D – Roman Josi, Victor Hedman, John Carlson, Drew Doughty, J.J. Moser, Jared Spurgeon

G – Andrei Vasilveskiy, Frederick Andersen, Antti Raanta.

Minors – Gavin Brindley, Sean Farrell, Mason Shaw, Elliot Desnoyers, Rafael Harvey-PInard, Bobby Brink, Ville Koivunen, Justin Barron, Lane Hutson, Zac Jones, Joel Blomkvist, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Isaiah Saville, Akira Schmidt

I've been a contender every season, alas I've never won, as I lost in the finals three times and every other year, I was top 5, but lost at different playoff rounds. Last season was my worst. I also have no draft picks for 2024 (we have 3 rounds per year for rookies, that’s it), but I have my 3 picks for 2025. My team is definitely getting older but I'm pretty sure I still have a shot at winning it this year, and maybe next. After that, though, I think the decline will be steep.

What should do? Hold pat, or make moves now to extend my window to win? Or should I start a full rebuild? Note that there are several other teams in the midst of a rebuild, so that might be tougher, while there are about a handful of top teams and another handful that are kind of stuck in the middle.

With no draft picks and a minors roster that I'm guessing is below average, I think you should do what you can to try to extend your window to win. Yes, it might come at the cost of you having to do a more substantial and longer lasting rebuild down the road, but I think it's the right move. Why? Because your veteran talent is solid, but for the most part would not bring you as much in value if you were to trade them. For example, guys like Kane, Tavares, Stone, Perron are all likely 70-point downside players, but also have roughly point per game ceilings. In other words, they're solid but unspectacular. As such, they'd be valued less by top tier teams than players a little younger or who have breakout potential. And Gaudreau's value is very low now too, plus teams might be worried that Tkachuk will have lingering injury effects. Long story short, I think you try to win again with this roster.

How should you try to help make that happen? For one, I think you want to trade UPL and Schmidt to rebuilding teams. Both of them have a lot more lure than I feel they deserve, as UPL has never really found success in North America, yet many see him as being the top guy as soon as this season for the Sabres. And Schmidt's pay in the playoffs inflated his value when in truth I don't see a universe in which Vitek Vanecek isn't the presumed starter. By all means add another prospect or two so as to sweeten the deal(s). In return I'd try to get skaters who are more physical, as that is not a huge strong point for your team.

Also part of the reason I'm suggesting that approach is I think you should trade Wilson. I worry about two things for him – his team and his age. The Caps have seen their goals per game drop each of the past three seasons and I don't see them having the ingredients to reverse that trend. Plus Wilson is almost 30, and rough and tumble players have a history of injury and/or scoring issues when reaching that age. But he has huge name value, so dish him for a defenseman, which is where you're most thin.

Who else would I consider trading? I might put Couturier on the block. Yes, he had four straight 70+ point scoring paces; however, he's older too and coming back from a major injury. I also happen to think that Morgan Frost is really going to make strides this season, such that Couturier might go back to being more of a two-way center, especially given John Tortorella's emphasis in that area. See what he can get you in return, packaging him – if necessary – with Chris Kreider. Yes, the ideal time to have sold on Kreider would've been last offseason; but he plays for a high profile team and his superb 2021-22 season was not so long ago for other GMs to think he can rebound, when my view is he is on a downward path and is turning into a glorified PP specialist who'll struggle to get more than 50 points. In return for them I'd try to get another defenseman and, again, a forward who is physical.

I think if you make those moves you position yourself to contend this season and perhaps even the next couple. That also will let you decide, along the way, if you want to try to position yourself so as not to need to do a full rebuild. Good luck!

Question #7 (from Kyle)

In a keep eight salary cap league with skater categories of G, A, PPP, SOG, HIT, BLK. My two certain keeps are Moritz Seider ($0.863M cap hit for 2023-24) and Andrei Svechnikov ($7.75M). From this list of players, which additional six would you keep: Auston Matthews ($11.64M), Elias Pettersson ($7.25M), J.T Miller ($8.0M), Alex Tuch ($4.75M), Zach Hyman ($5.5M), Tom Wilson ($5.16M), Tyler Toffoli ($4.25M), Shea Theodore ($5.2M), Bowen Byram ($3.85M), Sam Bennett ($4.42M), and Elias Lindholm ($4.85M)?

This question is made more difficult for me to answer due to me missing a couple of key pieces of information, namely how many players start at each position as well as whether the team's cap matches the NHL's cap, or if it higher, or if AAV is used. Still, I'll do my best to answer it objectively. Let this be a reminder though to everyone who submits questions to err on the side of inclusion in terms of details you provide. You know your league and team but I don't, and I need to have information necessary to provide the best answers I can.

For starters, I'm fully on board with Seider, but I'd put Svech down as a maybe. Without PIM he is very good but not as good, and he's not a bargain. That leaves six or seven spots and 12 choices, so roughly half can be kept.

Right off the bat I'm eliminating Bennett, Byram and Theodore. I like Bennett's price and stat stuffing; but he just does not put up enough points and a spot for him on PP1 is iffy at best. Byram seemingly has a bright future; however, with four point producing rearguards in Colorado and Byram barely sniffing any PP time even when in the line-up, plus his ability to remain healthy in question, he's not a keep. Theodore is a fantasy tease, always having a stretch of 10-20 games where he's amazing, but then he either comes back to earth or gets hurt, or both. He's also not that cheap.

After that it gets a bit tougher. As noted above, I fear that Wilson is at risk of rough and tumble age-related decline and I suppose that for only $2.6M less than Svech, who should have comparable multicat output but offers a chance at 20+ more points, including on the PP, I think Wilson is not needed as a keep. One option is to seize upon his name value though and dish him with Byram, who my guess is some team will covet, and try to land a second retainable rearguard.

What of the $4-6M guys, namely Tuch, Hyman, Lindholm and Toffoli? Lindholm was barely a point per gamer even when playing alongside Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk in 2021-22; so I think he just is not cut from a high scoring cloth. I like that Toffoli has done well of late and is playing for a UFA deal, plus is on the Devils, where if he plays on the first line and/or top PP, he could coast to career highs. I feel Hyman is a major threat to regress, although he seems to be locked into the top PP unit, although no forward who received more PP time had a worse PP IPP than him. Tuch has had Band-Aid Boy issues, but seems like he's turned a corner both in that area and as far as scoring, where he's only now reaching his "big guy" 400 game breakout threshold. Tuch I see as a definite keep, with Hyman and Toffoli as maybes.

Pettersson seems like a lock, as he's playing for a new deal and is quite good in multicat. Yes, his price will explode after this season, but for 2023-24 I see him as a must keep. As for Matthews, he's great in multicat; and prior to 2022-23 he had seen his scoring rise with every season. He is a UFA after 2023-24 unless he re-ups during the season, which I see as a 50/50 proposition at best. He also would want his stats to be very solid. His price tag is huge, but he's a special player. With Miller, he is multicat gold and by Q4 of 2022-23 looked to be back in 2021-22 form. He's a 100% definite keep.

Looking back, Seider, Svech, Tuch, Miller and Pettersson are keeps. A sixth keeper might be a d-man received in trade for Wilson and Byram. That leaves two or three more spots. My view is you cannot leave Matthews on the table even given his cost. He is that good and with $$ motivation I like the odds of him really exploding again. If there is only room for one more keeper, I'd go with Hyman, as he seems to be locked into a top role with Edmonton. If the Wilson and Byram trade isn't made, then the last keeper would be Toffoli, due to the home run potential. Good luck!

********************

For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 26 - 19:04 WSH vs NYR
Apr 26 - 19:04 NSH vs VAN
Apr 26 - 22:04 COL vs WPG
Apr 26 - 22:04 L.A vs EDM

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
ALEX VLASIC CHI
STEVEN STAMKOS T.B
JAKE GUENTZEL CAR
QUINTON BYFIELD L.A
SEBASTIAN AHO CAR

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
STUART SKINNER EDM
THATCHER DEMKO VAN
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR
ILYA SOROKIN NYI
IVAN PROSVETOV COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency PHI Players
12.9 OWEN TIPPETT SCOTT LAUGHTON TRAVIS KONECNY
11.8 TYSON FOERSTER JOEL FARABEE SEAN COUTURIER
11.8 RYAN POEHLING GARNET HATHAWAY NOAH CATES

DobberHockey Podcasts

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: