Yesterday, I started a series of Ramblings reviewing some players I am targeting as good values in early (pre-camp) fantasy hockey drafts. The lack of information in the NHL offseason can lead to good drafting opportunities, though they do carry risk because of that lack of information. It is a double-edged sword that can make drafting in August/early September a lot of fun.

After combing the Atlantic Division, we are going to move to the Metro and pick one player per team. The ADP data will come from ESPN, which can be unreliable this early, but is the best guide we have. As usual, player data will be from Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated.

Carolina – Seth Jarvis (ESPN ADP: 228.3, Forward 152)

On ESPN, once a player reaches an ADP higher than 225, they're basically last-round picks. Jarvis doesn't really have a 229 ADP, he's just taken in the early 200s in some drafts and early 300s in others. It is just how they aggregate that data.

It was a bad sophomore season for Jarvis following a stellar rookie campaign. Despite 385 more minutes played in 2022-23 versus 2021-22, Jarvis put up one fewer point. There were myriad reasons for this: Jarvis's shooting percentage more than halved, the team scored over one goal less per 60 minutes with him on the ice at 5-on-5, and he managed a point on just 55.6% of goals against 66.7% the year before. The problem wasn't just the team, though, as a lot of Jarvis's micro stats cratered. Here is how he fared in things like shots, scoring chances, and scoring chance assists (helping a teammate's scoring chance) in his rookie year (from AllThreeZones):

And his most recent season:

Michael Bunting was brought in, and Martin Necas is still there, but there isn't a lot of competition for top-6 minutes. Jarvis still has the inside track for that, and Necas provides the blueprint for a rebound. He had a similar problem as Jarvis with a good season followed by a bad season played on the periphery, and then the reclamation in 2022-23. If Jarvis can follow that path, he has genuine 30-goal, 60-point upside. Minutes with Sebastian Aho rather than Jesperi Kotkaniemi would be nice to see.

Columbus – Boone Jenner (ESPN ADP: 209.4, Forward 121)

If the Jackets can find a scoring groove, there should be a number of good draft values. Columbus's centre depth comes into 2023-24 the same way they entered 2022-23: Boone Jenner and a bunch of question marks. There is Jack Roslovic but he is poor both defensively and on faceoffs, so he'll have a slog to earning coach Mike Babcock's trust; Sean Kuraly can hold a bottom-6 role but if he ends up the 2C for any stretch of time, something bad has happened in Columbus; Patrik Laine may get a chance there but faces the same trust issue as Roslovic; Adam Fantilli is a future star but he's still an 18-year-old rookie. All this is to say that Jenner is the only centre Babcock can rely on for 19-20 minutes a night with superlative faceoff play.

That means Jenner should stay on the top line with Johnny Gaudreau as well as the top PP unit. Over the last two seasons, Jenner has averaged 32 goals, 58 points, 14 power-play points, 241 shots, 135 hits, and 82 blocks per 82 games. With improvements around him, and a healthy season, Jenner has tremendous multi-cat upside. That health is very much the question, though.

New Jersey – Akira Schmid (ESPN ADP: 229.2, Goalie 39)

We won't go long here because Schmid is someone I've discussed already this offseason. The crux is that even if Vitek Vanecek makes 50-55 starts, as long as New Jersey is a top team in the East and Schmid doesn't blow up, his 25-ish starts would be enough to be a top-30 fantasy goalie. That might seem like faint praise, but it sets a floor for what he can do in the 2023-24 season. Should anything happen with Vanecek – underperformance, injury, or otherwise – Schmid would rocket up to a top-15 fantasy goalie. He is one of the backups to take a chance on as a third (or even fourth) fantasy net-minder.

NY Islanders – Brock Nelson (ESPN ADP: 179, Forward 97)

We have discussed the values of Bo Horvat (here) and Oliver Wahlstrom (here) in recent Ramblings so we'll go in another direction.

The concern is the impact Horvat will have on ice time. Nelson skated 18:43 a game up until the Horvat acquisition, just a shade behind Mathew Barzal. After Horvat showed up, Nelson lost about a minute of TOI. It isn't massive, and he did score 37 goals the year before skating 17:41 a night, so all is definitely not lost.

All the same, each of Horvat, Nelson, and Barzal should be on the top power-play unit. With Noah Dobson on the blue line, it might be a really good top PP unit. On top of that, Nelson's line was excellent after the team acquired Pierre Engvall, which isn't surprising for anyone that followed Engvall's success in Toronto. Nelson is still a 30-goal, 60-point, 200-shot forward with upside beyond that.

NY Rangers – Alexis Lafrenière (ESPN ADP: 226.8, Forward 142)

Outside of the top PP regulars, Jacob Trouba and K'Andre Miller in multi-cat formats, and Igor Shesterkin, mining for fantasy value is going to be tough. The veterans are leaned on, the only young forward that has proven himself is Filip Chytil, and Chytil is stuck behind Mika Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck.

Lafrenière might be one of the wingers that thrives with the coaching change, though. A few months ago, on my personal blog, I wrote extensively about Laffy and how New York's east-west offence didn't play to his strengths. He thrives in the net-front area and has taken the time to finally develop a playmaking dimension. With a coach that'll (likely) focus less on the east-west playmaking, Lafrenière could take his next step. Power-play ice time remains a hurdle and will cap his upside, but he has started hitting a lot and looks primed for across-the-board career highs. He is a guy to target late in banger drafts, and his ADP may keep dropping the longer his contract status remains in limbo.

Philadelphia – Cam York (ESPN ADP: N/A)

Coaches can surprise us in a good way, sometimes. I personally thought Cam York was going to be on John Tortorella's sh*t list but that ended up being Tony DeAngelo. Despite a stint in the AHL to start the year, York went from 19:12 a night in his first 33 games to 20:20 a night over the final six weeks. Sean Walker and Marc Staal were added to the Flyers roster, but they're not threats for offensive minutes.

By Evolving Hockey's metrics, York was very good defensively in 2022-23. He did that while still maintaining league-average playmaking from the blue line, which is a good sign for a 22-year-old defenceman on a team coached by Torts. Adding to his offensive game while retaining his defensive play is the next step, but there are few hurdles to top offensive TOI; guys like Travis Sanheim and Rasmus Ristoalainen are safety valves in case York doesn't work out.

Like all players on a Tortorella roster, York will have to earn his role, then keep earning it. He did exactly that last year, though, and the team getting healthy up front could help his even-strength point totals. He will not post great peripherals but he's absolutely a 40-point threat that no one is drafting.

Pittsburgh – Drew O'Connor (ESPN ADP: N/A)

With Jake Guentzel injured, looking at guys like Reilly Smith and Bryan Rust is too obvious. Pierre-Olivier Joseph had the appearance of a late-round value, and then they added Erik Karlsson. We are running out of options.

Drew O'Connor is a fascinating fantasy target. Guentzel's injury means Smith, Rust, and Rickard Rakell are locked into top-6 roles to start the season. That does leave one spot open, though, and O'Connor is a left shot unlike Rust and Rakell. The DOC has averaged 3.5 shots per game in his last two AHL seasons and, on a per-minute basis, has shot at a top-line rate over his last two NHL seasons, comparable to Cole Caufield. He only shot 11% over those two AHL seasons, though, and it explains O'Connor shooting under 8% for his recent two partial NHL seasons.

What can he shoot if he has Evgeni Malkin and Reilly Smith passing him pucks, though? His role may not last long once Guentzel returns, if he even earns a second-line role out of the gate, but late in banger leagues, I want to pay to find out the answer.

Washington – Darcy Kuemper (ESPN ADP: 216.9, Goalie 26)

Last year, Keumper finished the season as the 23^rd goalie on ESPN, and that was with TJ Oshie, John Carlson, Tom Wilson, and Nicklas Backstrom missing a combined 158 games. With those guys (ostensibly) healthy, it puts Kuemper in line to win a lot more than 22 out of 56 starts. Just two more wins would have had Kuemper as a top-20 ESPN goalie, and five more wins would have had him as the 17^th fantasy goalie. It highlights that there really isn't far for Kuemper to go to be a top-15 tender in fantasy.

Max Pacioretty will hopefully return healthy and having Carlson for 75-plus games should help the blue line immensely. There is also no real competition for Kuemper's starting job as long as he doesn't collapse. He could have a decent season – .909 SV%, 2.75 GAA, 30 wins – and easily pay off his ADP. This is a guy I want if I'm running out of options for my second fantasy goalie.