Ramblings: Another Mock Draft – M. Tkachuk, Drafting Goalies and Defensemen, Bedard, and More (Aug 26)

Ian Gooding

2023-08-26

Finding content to write about during the dead of summer is a real challenge, so I might as well try to kill two birds with one stone. That's why I'm practicing my skills by participating in mock drafts and writing about them afterward. Hopefully it helps you in some way with your draft while covering several players of interest.

This isn't my first mock draft of the season at Yahoo. I wrote about that draft here. I'll go through my own picks and maybe a few other notable players, but you'll have to go to my blog Goods Fantasy Hockey if you'd like to see the full results.

Like the first draft, settings are as follows:

Teams: 12

Standard positions: C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, D, D, D, D, G, G, BN, BN, BN, BN.

Standard categories: Goals, Assists, Plus/Minus, Powerplay Points, Shots on Goal, Hits, Wins, Goals Against Average, Save Percentage, Shutouts

Note that this is being written from a single-season (non-keeper) perspective.

Round 1 (4th overall): Matthew Tkachuk – I realize that picking Tkachuk when Nathan MacKinnon is available might seem silly, since MacKinnon has substantially outscored Tkachuk over the past three years. Tkachuk finished only two points behind MacKinnon in the scoring race in 2022-23, but MacKinnon also played eight fewer games. That might be one of the reasons to pick Tkachuk. Yes, Tkachuk. MacKinnon has missed 10+ games in each of the past two seasons, while Tkachuk has missed fewer than 10 games over the past five seasons combined. Tkachuk is also fairly close to MacKinnon in shots, and he also has a higher hits total. Tkachuk also has more 100-point seasons (2 to 1). If you think I'm wrong on this one, explain why in the comments.

Player Compare: Tkachuk / MacKinnon

Round 2 (21st overall): Jake Oettinger – The goalie run was already well underway with Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin being drafted earlier in the second around and Andrei Vasilevskiy and Alexandar Georgiev being drafted with the two picks after. This practice is clearly running counter to the Zero G movement that has occurred in drafts the past season or two (or more, depending who you talk to).

Is this cohort of goalies worth drafting over some of the other options that are usually available? I'll be honest: I'm not enamored about the players being drafted around this spot or shortly after. The most common names based on Yahoo ADPs are Roope Hintz, William Nylander, Mika Zibanejad, Brayden Point, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, John Tavares, and Elias Pettersson. Of this group, I might pick one of Zibanejad, Point, or Pettersson here: Point for another run at 50 goals, or Pettersson for another run at 100 points. Zibanejad is an old standby of mine from seasons past, but I'm not quite sold that he's a real threat for either milestone. Nylander might be okay in a scoring-only format, but he loses value in bangers leagues.

If you say "I'd pick (so-and-so) here," ask yourself if it's possible to wait another round or two (or more) before picking that player. A draft is not about picking a player at absolute value – it's about maximizing the value of each pick you make. In other words, try to avoid reaching for a player. Goalies are volatile, but what if you found a goalie here that would carry your team all season? Then the pick is worth it. What I don't recommend is reaching for a goalie, though.

Round 3 (28th overall): Tim Stutzle – I mentioned in a previous Ramblings that I had Stutzle undervalued in my most recent Roto Rankings. The more I think about it, the more I believe Stutzle is a star in the making in multicategory leagues. A point per game, three shots per game, and over a hit per game. Might be a slight reach here based on ADP (36), but my Fantasy Hockey Geek projections tell me otherwise.

I've got goaltending, left wing, and bangers categories taken care of for the moment. Now it's time to focus on scoring categories. Over the next few picks, however, you'll witness another position offer tremendous value.

Round 4 (45th overall): Connor Bedard – I was going to grab Rasmus Dahlin here, but he was picked right before. That messes with the plans, especially when you have only 30 seconds to pick! Usually I have 90 seconds, which is more of a help when you need a Plan B. The 30-second pick time also makes it harder to find potential Plan B's.

Projections for Bedard will be all over the map. I've seen them anywhere from 60 to 90 points for the wunderkind. What seems more certain is that you'll need a top 50 pick in your Yahoo draft to land Bedard. That seems a bit risky, but remember that his ceiling is top-15 scoring – even in his first season. If you don't think he should be picked there, then I will almost guarantee that someone else in your league will.

Round 5 (52nd overall): Dougie Hamilton I was considering Jack Eichel here. Although he was picked 10 spots later, I would have had to pick him with this pick if I wanted him (this was a snake draft, but I was about to hit the long wait). I like Hamilton for his ability to fill multiple boxes in addition to scoring, and he provides me with my first defenseman.

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Also, what on earth is David Kampf doing with an ADP of 45? Is this Leafs fans' idea of hijacking Yahoo autopickers? I seem to remember this happening with Martin Marincin a few years ago.

Round 6 (69th overall): Josh Morrissey – Just like two rounds ago, my original pick was snatched with the pick right before (thanks again, tony with a lowercase t!) Clayton Keller was that pick, since I remember well his strong second half (22 G and 48 PTS in 39 GP). Still, I have to be satisfied with Morrissey, who was tied for second in points among defensemen, along with…

Round 7 (76th overall): Quinn Hughes – I can't believe my luck with all these d-men falling in Yahoo drafts. If you have an early draft, then you need to be scooping up defensemen left, right, and center (as opposed to left wings, right wings, and centers?) I think I've got peripheral categories fairly well-covered here, so I won't worry about that with Hughes here.

Round 8 (93rd overall): Devon Toews – Yep, four defensemen in a row. They are providing exceptional value here. Some of the picks in this round could have waited a few more rounds in my opinion, in particular Rickard Rakell, Jordan Eberle, Devon Levi, and Brandon Hagel.

Round 9 (100th overall): Joe Pavelski – Maybe this is the season that the 39-year-old Pavelski starts to decline for good. Since he was on the league's top line last season and still scores at a near point-per-game pace, I think he still offers great value at this spot.

Round 10 (117th overall): Vitek Vanecek – I am still without a right winger, and it's been a position that I've had trouble finding satisfactory options at during drafts the past few seasons. So naturally, I'll go look for another goalie instead and stumble upon Vanecek, who I believe offers great Zero G value at this spot if you're trying to avoid drafting a goalie until around this spot. Even if you think Akira Schmid will steal the starting job away, Vanecek still has the potential for a high win total.   

Round 11 (124th overall): Cole Caufield – I get the right winger that I need. My Geek projections show that he offers the most goals of options remaining at the position, so that's good. Caufield will also fall more than he should in drafts because of his injury last season.

Round 12 (141st overall): Tom Wilson – He offers the best bangers coverage along with goals, so this seems like a decent spot to draft him.

Round 13 (148th overall): Chris Kreider – I might be overdoing it with the bangers, but Kreider is falling too much in my opinion. I also picked him in my previous mock draft at 114th overall, which seems a bit too high now but seemed like good value at the time.

Round 14 (165th overall): Filip Forsberg – I don't think Forsberg would normally shouldn't fall this far either, but the fact that he played only 50 games last season is cutting into his value.

Round 15 (172nd overall): Zach Werenski – Like Caufield and Forsberg, Werenski is another player who was injured for a significant chunk of last season. One plan for the later rounds should be to find these types of players whose ADPs are falling farther than they should because they are being sorted by last season's point totals.   

Round 16 (189th overall): Nazem Kadri – His 87-point season in 2021-22 seems like an outlier now, since his usual point pace is between 50-60 points. I guess I still had that outlier season on my mind when I clicked on his name. I don't think the players picked after (Karel Vejmelka, Martin Jones, Lawson Crouse) offer better value, since Kadri has always had decent shot and hit totals to boost his multicat value.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 22 - 12:12 NYR vs CAR
Dec 22 - 17:12 T.B vs FLA
Dec 22 - 17:12 UTA vs ANA
Dec 22 - 17:12 WSH vs L.A
Dec 22 - 20:12 EDM vs OTT
Dec 22 - 20:12 COL vs SEA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency COL Players
68.5 VALERI NICHUSHKIN NATHAN MACKINNON ARTTURI LEHKONEN
55.4 MIKKO RANTANEN CASEY MITTELSTADT ROSS COLTON
50.1 LOGAN O'CONNOR JOEL KIVIRANTA PARKER KELLY

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