Eastern Edge: Potential Top Line Third Wheels Including Newhook and Wahlstrom
Brennan Des
2023-08-29
In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll look at potential third wheels for dynamic duos in Montreal and New York.
Montreal Canadiens
The star duo of Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield will likely spend the year together, but there are numerous candidates for that third spot on Montreal's top line.
Sean Monahan saw time beside Suzuki and Caufield last October, posting six points in nine games. With Monahan signed to a one-year deal, it makes sense for the organization to play him in a premier role early on. He'd be able to showcase his abilities, allowing the Canadiens to maximize value if they choose to trade him at the deadline.
Another candidate for the role is Kirby Dach, who joined forces with Suzuki and Caufield for the first time on October 29th against the Blues. Suzuki, Dach and Caufield looked excellent during their first month together, with each player boasting a point-per-game pace during that span. Opponents eventually caught onto them being the only real dangerous line, so they weren't as productive in the month that followed – and then Caufield went down with a shoulder injury. Regardless, that initial hot streak served as a catalyst to help Dach elevate his game last year. He established himself as one of the most talented players on the roster and wouldn't look out of place beside the team's top two talents this year.
Raphael Harvey-Pinard showed great chemistry with Suzuki last season, tallying 14 goals in 34 appearances. It's worth mentioning that Caufield was injured for most of those games, so we don't really know if the chemistry RHP had with Suzuki would still exist with Caufield back in the mix. Dach and Monahan seem like better individual play drivers than RHP, so if Montreal wants to distribute offensive talent throughout the lineup, they might let Monahan and Dach carry offense for the middle six, while RHP plays a supporting role beside Suzuki and Caufield.
Just one year removed from being drafted first overall, Juarj Slafkovsky's high potential and unique skillset require we consider him to play alongside Suzuki and Caufield. He's been training hard during the offseason, and I expect him to take a step forward this year, but I don't think the team wants to rush his development, so a high-profile role on the top line might have to wait.
The player I personally think will spend a lot of time with Suzuki and Caufield this year is Alex Newhook. In acquiring Newhook, the Canadiens hope to replicate the heist they pulled off when they stole Dach from Chicago. As I mentioned above, Suzuki and Caufield essentially acted like training wheels for Dach. They supported him until he gained the confidence to ride on his own, developing into a player that could carry the offensive load by himself. I wouldn't be surprised if the organization let Newhook find his groove beside Suzuki and Caufield, allowing him to realize his potential the same way Dach did.
If I were to rank the above players based on fantasy value for this season, I'd go:
Kirby Dach – I'm confident in his individual abilities and believe he'll produce even if he doesn't slot in on the top line. At the very least, he'll play a prominent power play role beside NickCole.
Alex Newhook – This is based on my belief that he'll end up skating prominent minutes with Suzuki and Caufield.
Sean Monahan – Saw limited action due to injuries last year but his 17 points in 25 games translate to 56 over 82. If he can stay healthy this season, the organization should put him in a position to succeed as they attract suitors for a deal at the deadline.
Raphael Harvey-Pinard – Can be productive if given the right deployment. However, a large part of why he saw favourable deployment last year was because the team was decimated by injuries. We don't really know where RHP fits in when the Canadiens are healthy. There's a lack of certainty associated with RHP's deployment, which makes me hesitant to endorse him this year.
Juraj Slafkovsky – I expect him to take a step forward this year, but I think he needs a few more years to realize his potential. I think the team can and will be patient with him.
New York Islanders
Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal don't have the same level of history that other duos in the league have, but it seems likely they play together this season. With Horvat getting traded to New York in early February, and with Barzal suffering a lower-body injury shortly afterwards, there were just seven regular season games last year where both players were in the lineup. Although the sample is small, they played together frequently during that stretch and showed sparks of chemistry while outchancing and outscoring opponents. That trend continued after Barzal returned from injury to play in New York's six postseason games.
Given their lack of history, there's a greater chance this duo will be broken up than there would be for more established pairs. However, considering the makeup of New York's roster, a Barzal-Horvat partnership would be ideal. The team is deep at center, so it makes sense for Barzal to play wing. He's a smooth-skating playmaker, so there's a logical fit with either Horvat or Nelson – the team's best goal scorers. Over the last three years, Barzal and Nelson have only played 150 minutes together at even-strength. While they've outshot and out-chanced their opponents in that span, they've been outscored 8-29 (via NaturalStatTrick). Sure, maybe they need a consistent stretch together to see if they can figure things out, but I think the team is more invested in the Barzal-Horvat partnership, since those two are committed to the team long term. Now that we've established why Barzal and Horvat make sense as a duo, let's take a look at their potential third wheels.
When Barzal and Horvat played together during the regular season, it was Josh Bailey that rounded out the line. During the playoffs, Bailey was scratched, and Anders Lee skated with Mat and Bo. The sample size was small and individual output wasn't great, but the advanced stats suggest they were doing the right things. Over a larger sample, the right process usually leads to favourable results. Teams often fall back on familiar line combinations, so the fact that this one was already tested makes it a plausible option for the upcoming season.
From a fantasy perspective, Oliver Wahlstrom riding shotgun with Barzal and Horvat is the most exciting outcome. Drafted 11th overall in 2018, the 23-year-old forward has a higher offensive cieling than the other candidates in this section. Limited to just 12 minutes a night across his first ~150 games in the NHL, he's going to need more opportunity to realize his potential. A spot on the top line would be perfect, but there's concern that his defensive deficiencies may keep him on the outskirts of a New York team that prides itself on defensive structure.
Having signed him to a seven-year deal this summer, the organization clearly has a favourable view of Pierre Engvall. He hasn't really seen a high volume of sustained minutes beside players of Horvat and Barzal's caliber, so it's possible there's some untapped potential there. Engvall spent a lot of time between Nelson and Kyle Palmieri last season. The three formed a strong unit, creating more offense than their opponents, whom they outscored 15-5 (via NaturalStatTrick). I imagine the team would want to keep that line intact, so we probably won't see Engvall with Barzal and Horvat long term.
Kyle Palmieri is one of a few wingers in New York who has the offensive ability to keep up with Horvat and Barzal. He was hindered by injuries last year, but after returning to the lineup full time in late January, he posted 24 points in 34 games – which translates to 57 in 82. Although he might get a shot on the top line, as I mentioned above, he showed strong chemistry with Nelson and Engvall last year on line two. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
If I were to rank the above players based on fantasy value for this season, I'd go:
Oliver Wahlstrom – For Wahlstrom to have a significant impact this year, a lot would have to go right. He'd need to stay healthy – a big ask considering he's coming off a serious knee injury. He'd need a massive increase in ice time, as well as a top-six role so he has exposure to some high-end talent. It's a lot to ask, but he's the only player on this list I'd actually be excited about drafting. Other players have limited offensive ceilings, even if they get the most favourable deployment.
Anders Lee – Most likely to get the top line spot, but I don't think he has the individual ability to put up more than 60 points in that role.
Kyle Palmieri – Based on the way he ended last season, he could flirt with 60 points if he stays healthy and sees prominent minutes beside Nelson on the second line.
Pierre Engvall – I don't think his skillset lends itself to big offensive numbers, but his defensive ability could complement Barzal and Horvat well, and a spot beside those two could lead him to more production than he's ever seen before.