Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades – Pittsburgh Penguins

Brad Hayward

2023-08-30

For the last 20 years (12 with The Hockey News), Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but more in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead, and the foreseeable future.  Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worth owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what we take into consideration when looking at the depth chart, and the player projections for each team.

Today, the Pittsburgh Penguins. 

Gone:  Jason Zucker, Jeff Petry, Brian Dumoulin, Jan Rutta, Mikhail Granlund, Ryan Poehling, Dmitri Kulikov, Josh Archibald, Casey DeSmith.  Also, GM Ron Hextall and President Brian Burke

Incoming:  Erik Karlsson, Ryan Graves, Lars Eller, Noel Acciari, Rem Pitlick, Vinnie Hinostroza, Matt Nieto, Andreas Johnsson, Radim Zohorna, Alex Nedeljkovic, Magnus Hellberg.  New President and GM Kyle Dubas, assistant GM Jason Spezza

Impact of Changes:  Can everyone see that Karlsson and Graves are an upgrade, both offensively and defensively, for the Pens blue line?  If paired together, Graves will improve his multi-category value, and Karlsson should be unleashed at 5-on-5 for offense.  No, he won't hit 101 points again, but neither will he be a minus-29 drag on your plus-minus stats.  The bottom-six was the anchor for Pittsburgh last season, and certainly Eller, Nieto, and Acciari will find spots there.   Acciari is a hidden gem in banger leagues, 200+ hits are likely.

Nedeljkovic is an intriguing change for the backup goalie role.  His career season in Carolina saw him post an 0.932 save percentage and a GAA of 1.90, over 23 games.  If he can have a bounce-back year, Pittsburgh could challenge for the Metro Division.  If….

Ready for Prime Time:  Not to be negative here, but the Penguins have let talent languish in Wilkes-Barre for years, while their Stanley Cup window faded away.  Filip Hallander signed in Sweden this summer.  Sam Poulin (first round, 2019) had three NHL games last year, and Valtteri Puustinen had one in 2021-22.  D-man Owen Pickering (first round, 2022) is ready to taste the big league this season, but will he?  With the roster additions seemingly above them, the youth development may be limited to the AHL.

Ty Smith, chosen 17th overall by New Jersey in 2018, is the likeliest call-up, but his strength might have been running a power play – yeah, that opportunity is gone now.  His defensive responsibility?   Sure, he may see half the season with the Pens, but has no fantasy value. 

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Fantasy outlook:  No one (yet) has defeated Father Time over the long haul.  I said "yet," because in 2022-23, Sidney Crosby posted his 18th consecutive point-per-game season, and Kyle Dubas just made a big trade to improve his offense and power play.  For Crosby, 80+ points, barring injury, seem like his floor.   His overall 200-foot play might land him a Selke nomination, now that Patrice Bergeron has retired.   Kris Letang should have fewer minutes, less time on the first power play, and a year where his fantasy numbers sag. 

Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, Rickard Rakell, and Reilly Smith could all hit 65+ points this season.  Graves should be near the league lead in blocked shots, considering his defensive role.

In goal, Tristan Jarry played through back problems last season, and comes in healthy and with a better defensive corps.  He'll drop some in fantasy drafts, but be of great value as a G-2 in a 12-team league. 

After 2023-24:  Yes, their core will be another year older.  But no longer should the Penguins be ranked near the NHL's tail end for prospects.  The aforementioned Poulin, Puustinen, and Pickering, plus 2023 pick Brayden Yager, along with goalie prospects Joel Blomqvist and Filip Lindberg, suggest that that "dark age" after Crosby, Malkin, and Letang retire might be shorter than previously expected, under Kyle Dubas' new management.  

Overall grade:  B+, last year B-  

One Comment

  1. wade nodding 2023-08-31 at 16:37

    No mention of Rieley Smith ?? !!
    Great player , will be a nice steadfast 2nd Liner for sure , if given the opportunity.

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