Ramblings: Fading Goalies Skinner, Hart & More; Projecting Those Adding Winger Eligibility (Aug 30)

Alexander MacLean

2023-08-30

Yesterday was my one annual fantasy football draft. It's always fun to get a different draft perspective, especially in a sport that I don't know as well as hockey. It forces a bit more thought on the strategy of which positions to target when, and how to take advantage of inefficiencies when you don't know the players and which direction they're trending. Football does have a bit more of a restricted feel to it with needing to fill certain positions first, and with there being no cross-positional flexibility as there is with hockey. That, and Rick's article coming out this morning covering a couple defencemen I have been eyeing in drafts (Rasmus Dahlin & Alex Pietrangelo) really has me thinking that I will be targeting defencemen early this year, and waiting a little for my centres and goalies.

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Generally I do wait on goalies, though I think there are a few to be found at a bargain price even within the top 100 picks this year, so it may not be as late to be filled on my rosters as most years. However, there are also a few goalies going early that I definitely don't think are worth the cost.

One player that I can already tell you that is going to be on zero of my teams prior to the beginning of the season is Stuart Skinner. Goalies are fickle as they come, and Skinner has all of the makings of an "offseason-appointed-starter" that I like to try and avoid.

First off, he's coming in as a sophomore goalie and there have been a lot of rookie goalies over the years who fail to adjust once they have been scouted and broken down by NHL competition. Working in Skinner's favour is that he does have a history of heavier workloads, and his last quarter of the season was also his best. While there are still some markers for success, what really worries me the most are the expectations and the competition.

Jack Campbell had a terrible first season in Edmonton, but goalies (and especially those that are a little more prone to streaks like Campbell) take a while to adjust to new team defence structures and players. Now that he has his feet back under him, I do expect a very solid bounce-back campaign from the veteran. His larger contract should ensure that he does get the opportunities, and that Skinner (even if he ends up the much better goalie again this year) will be capped around the 50 games he played last season.

I would expect the actual split to be closer to 50/50, with each getting a couple of runs when the other is slumping. The West being the weaker conference means that the top teams like Edmonton can afford to split goaltending duties to ensure both are relatively fresh come playoff time. That will likely hinder the volume value of both goalies. For where Skinner is being drafted this year, it doesn't feel worth the risk to me.

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Five other goalies I am fading this year (because the BOS duo counts as one):

Connor Hellebuyck – He's a Vezina caliber goalie every second season, but the ones in between are closer to average – he's due for an average season and it coincides with a Jets team that is sliding down the standings.

Linus Ullmark & Jeremy Swayman – First, they're very unlikely to repeat the historic year they just had, especially with the team losing key players. Second, they eat into each other's starts and only with an injury would one of them top 50 games. For where they're being drafted there are goalies still available that could/will play 60 games and have similar peripherals.

Filip Gustavsson – Similar reason to the Boston duo above, he's being drafted at close to his upside, but the team in front of him and the risk of him losing starts to Marc-Andre Fleury is real.

Thatcher Demko – I'm staying away from Canucks in general except for Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller, and Elias Pettersson. Demko is also a big injury risk, and put up Jekell and Hyde numbers when healthy last season.

Carter Hart – Similar to Demko, the team in front of him is one I want nothing to do with the goalies for, in addition to the fact that they have a whole bunch of other NHL-level goalies under contract to compete with him for time. Maybe I'll end up with him in a league where saves are counted and I need a second volume-starter, but I think it unlikely since I could still draft Karel Vejmelka, Ville Husso, the LA duo, or maybe even Jacob Markstrom just as late.

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For the fantasy leagues that count faceoff wins, centres with wing eligibility are a huge advantage. Even for those that don't count it, knowing which centres are more likely to gain winger eligibility early on in the season gives you a lot more flexibility at the draft table. Fantasy platforms including Fantrax and Yahoo don't take away positional eligibility in-season, they only add it. Yahoo especially is liberal and unpredictable with their eligibilities as I was discussing in a previous Ramblings. That led me to look into which players are currently just listed as centres who will likely end up adding some winger eligibility in-season. There is more of an advantage to be gained in Yahoo leagues here than in Fantrax where the positions are a little more reliable, and you can and have the flexibility to make your own position edits.

Right now, players including Jack Hughes, J.T. Miller, Tim Stutzle, P.L. Dubois, and Claude Giroux are listed as wingers who win a fair number of faceoffs. Even with that though, there is still an excess of fantasy-relevant players listed as just centres. Let's go through the list:

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Leon Draisaitl & Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Both had wing eligibility early-on last year, and with how often they play with Connor McDavid and eachother, it should happen soon again this year.

Steven Stamkos – With a healthy Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli, Stamkos will likely be playing wing more often than centre. Stamkos' scoring totals did dip a little as soon as Cirelli returned last year though. We'll see what a healthy lineup to start the year will bring.

Elias Pettersson – Won a career-high 442 faceoffs last year, but still plays a lot on the wing with J.T. Miller taking the draws. If either is traded this year then that could really throw a wrench into the deployment.

Elias Lindholm – One of my league-mates was waiting all year for Lindholm to get his RW designation again, but Yahoo seems to have finally caught on that he is just a centre. With his talent down the middle it is unlikely that he plays much on the wing, though with a new coach in town plus Mikael Backlund and Nazem Kadri also lining up down the middle, the possibility is there.

Joe Pavelski & Roope Hintz – The Dallas linemates seem to split faceoffs on their respective strong sides, which means that both should likely see some winger eligibility added in quick order.

Mat Barzal/Bo Horvat – Similar to the Dallas duo, this set of Islanders centres are likely going to be linemates for large portions of the season, and the expectation is that at least Barzal would get wing eligibility at some point.

Tyler Seguin/Matt Duchene – The last of the centre pairings is another lefty/righty combo who both have faceoff percentages over 52% going back the last few seasons. Duchene took less faceoffs in his last couple years in Nashville, so of the two he should get his wing designation faster.

Martin Necas, Brayden Schenn, and Chandler Stephenson have all played both wing and centre in recent seasons, and their eligibility is still up in the air as line combos will shift from offseason moves which means there's some more uncertainty in their situations.

Other noteworthy players listed as centres that are most definitely wingers and should be corrected in short order: Jordan Kyrou, Carter Verhaeghe, Ivan Barbashev, Seth Jarvis, Adrian Kempe, Sam Reinhart, Dawson Mercer, and more.

All this to say, don't be afraid to draft that extra centre for your fantasy team. They're good players, and the positions will sort themselves out soon.

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See you next Wednesday! In the meantime, you Floridians stay safe. You can find me on Twitter (I will continue to call it that) @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

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Dec 22 - 12:12 NYR vs CAR
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Dec 22 - 17:12 UTA vs ANA
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Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
PETR MRAZEK CHI

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CAR Players
19.5 JACK ROSLOVIC SETH JARVIS SEBASTIAN AHO
14.7 ERIC ROBINSON MARTIN NECAS JESPERI KOTKANIEMI
11.9 ANDREI SVECHNIKOV JORDAN STAAL JORDAN MARTINOOK

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