Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades – Toronto Maple Leafs

Flip Livingstone

2023-09-04

For the last 20 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 21st annual review will appear here on Dobber Hockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

Enjoy!

Be sure to pick up your copy of the 2023-24 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide.

Gone – Luke Schenn, Michael Bunting, Ryan O'Reilly, Justin Holl, Noel Acciari, Alex Kerfoot, Wayne Simmonds, Zach Aston-Reese, Erik Gustafsson, Erik Kallgren

Incoming – Max Domi, John Klingberg, Ryan Reaves, Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Gambrell

Impact of Changes – At first glance, at least on paper, the Atlantic Division is arguably the Maple Leafs to lose. Aside from the historically-good season from the Boston Bruins last campaign, Toronto cemented itself as the second-best team in the division with another strong regular season of 111 points followed up by yet another abbreviated postseason.

The Buds are at a tipping point. Contract situations and playoff mediocrity are taking the pressure up a few notches in Leaf Land, especially when it comes to the ability of Toronto's core four (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares) to take this organization to the next level.

In terms of offseason moves, the Leafs have a new look both in the front office and on the ice, as new general manager Brad Treliving continues to leave his fingerprints all over his new franchise.

Of course, the addition of Tyler Bertuzzi adds another wrinkle into Sheldon Keefe's top-six and Max Domi is a motivated piece returning home following a strong regular and postseason split between Chicago and Dallas. However, Treliving is rolling the dice bringing in a somewhat defensive liability in John Klingberg, and while Ryan Reaves is an obviously popular pick-up, his game is one dimensional and foot speed is seriously lacking.

Combine that with the fact the Leafs lost a ton of size, grit, and steadying veteran presence in Luke Schenn, Ryan O'Reilly, Justin Holl, and Noel Acciari, this could be a dog fight in the Atlantic for the top three spots.

Can Bertuzzi stay healthy? Will Klingberg be able to turn back the clock and find his former game that allowed him to produce on the power play at an elite level and put up 50 or 60 points? Does Domi form chemistry and fit into Toronto's top-six? All three players are fantasy relevant, but all bring with them significant risk. Keep that in mind when draft season rolls around.

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Ready for the Full Time – Matt Knies, Joseph Woll

Perhaps the biggest question mark for the Leafs heading into this season is in the blue paint.

Sure, Ilya Samsonov had a very respectable regular season showing of 27-10-5, four shutouts, 2.33 goals-against average, and .919 save percentage. His playoff performance not only left a lot to be desired, it leaves serious doubt around if Samsonov can be a true number one.

Enter Woll. The "goalie of the future" is going to get a real shot at being the guy right now in Toronto. The non-existent sample size of 15 games of NHL experience is clearly not a ton to go on, but Woll is already looking like he's ready for the big time as he showed he's not rattled by the NHL-level competition. He should put serious pressure on Samsonov to be at his best and contend for a good share of the time between the pipes this upcoming season. Have a look at him in the back end of your drafts as a nice backup or even third goalie option.

As for Knies, a lot to like about this kid who is already garnering some darkhorse Calder Trophy attention. In limited action at the end of last season and into the postseason, Knies proved he can form chemistry fitting into the Leafs top-six during the playoffs, as he put up four points in seven games. He's going to get a really good look and chance to play alongside the likes of Nylander, Marner, Tavares, and Matthews, so he automatically becomes fantasy relevant. Knies has amazing hands and should be considered a young fantasy piece on the rise.

Fantasy Outlook – Question marks abound in Toronto – but there is obviously fantasy value to be had up-and-down their lineup. Be wary of where you're drafting their goalies as the Leafs will most definitely be in tough in the Atlantic this upcoming year and a lot of emphasis will be on the Toronto blue line to perform once again. A blue line that allowed the seventh-least goals-against overall and seventh-least shots against per game only one campaign ago.

There are going to be a number of really good teams in the Eastern Conference left on the cutting room floor. If the Leafs get off to a slow start or rising teams around them like the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, and Buffalo Sabres take the step a lot of NHL pundits expect them to, Toronto might be in serious trouble and heads will roll.

Fantasy Grade – B+ (last year was B)

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 21 - 19:11 WSH vs COL
Nov 21 - 19:11 CBJ vs T.B
Nov 21 - 19:11 OTT vs VGK
Nov 21 - 19:11 DET vs NYI
Nov 21 - 19:11 BOS vs UTA
Nov 21 - 19:11 N.J vs CAR
Nov 21 - 20:11 STL vs S.J
Nov 21 - 20:11 CHI vs FLA
Nov 21 - 21:11 CGY vs NYR
Nov 21 - 21:11 EDM vs MIN

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JASON ROBERTSON DAL
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL
DECLAN CHISHOLM MIN
JAKE WALMAN S.J
WILLIAM EKLUND S.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
SEBASTIAN COSSA DET
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD S.J
IVAN FEDOTOV PHI
YAROSLAV ASKAROV S.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CBJ Players
20.6 DMITRI VORONKOV SEAN MONAHAN KIRILL MARCHENKO
18.5 SEAN KURALY JUSTIN DANFORTH ZACHARY ASTON-REESE
18.0 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK KEVIN LABANC ADAM FANTILLI

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