Top 10 Players That Will Bounce Back in 2023-24
Tom Collins
2023-09-04
Impatience is too often one of the root causes of a fantasy team’s downfall, and it’s not just when dealing with younger players taking a while to break out.
Veterans who struggle, either on the ice or with injuries, are often discarded too quickly. Fantasy GMs believe these players have lost a step, have been surpassed in the lineup or that their glory days are behind them and they are living on reputation.
There are plenty of examples of older players bouncing back. In the past couple of years, we’ve seen Brent Burns bounce back from a 42-point pace, Evgeny Kuznetsov bounce back from a 58-point to notch 78 points (before falling back again to 55 points) and Dougie Hamilton putting up a career-high 74 points last year after putting up 40-point pace the previous season.
The players listed below are mostly on the older side (eight of the players are at least 28 years old), but there are numerous reasons to believe they can turn back the clock for one more great year.
Below are 10 players that can bounce back in 2023-24.
10. Max Pacioretty
It’s almost impossible for Pacioretty not to have a bounce-back campaign, provided he can stay relatively healthy. Last year limited him to just five games thanks to an Achilles injury that cost him the first few months, and then reinjuring that same Achilles shortly after his return. He had three goals and zero assists in those five games. In Washington, he won’t be counted on to lead the team in goals, thanks to some guy named Alexander Ovechkin. Pacioretty loves shooting the puck, which is what Ovi will also do if the two are ever on the ice together. However, as a second-line winger, don’t discount a 30-goal, 30-assist season for Pacioretty while still averaging three-plus shots per night, even if he’s not ready for the start of the season, as reported on Sunday.
Wheeler’s final season with the Jets did not go as well as anyone had hoped as he finished with a 63-point pace. This came after three straight seasons of a 75-point pace (which came after two straight years of a 90-plus points pace). With the Rangers, he should start the season in a top-six role, either alongside either perennial 90-point Player Artemi Panarin, or perennial 90-point player Mika Zibanejad. Potential use on the top power-play unit could further increase his numbers.
Even the worst number-one goalies in the league can have fantasy relevance. Usually, they’re on poor defensive teams, so they pick up a lot of saves (the league leaders for shots against per 60 minutes of netminders with at least 20 starts last year where John Gibson, Petr Mrazek, Sam Montembeault, Elvis Merzlikins and Karel Vejmelka). If they’re a poor goalie on a good team, they can still pick up wins (Martin Jones had 27 wins in 48 games and Jack Campbell had 21 in 36, despite both putting up sub .890 save percentage). Sometimes there is no other choice than to give your number one most of the games (Jordan Binnington finished 11th in wins and eighth in saves a year ago). Coming off an injury-plagued season, Demko will return as the Canucks’ number-one guy, and even if his overall numbers aren’t the greatest, even playing 60 games means he could be this year’s Binnington when it comes to wins and saves.
Debrincat’s only season in Ottawa didn’t go as well as anyone had hoped: Not the Sens, not Debrincat and certainly not fantasy general managers. Debrincat went from a 40-goal campaign to 27, and his 66-point pace with Ottawa was his second lowest of the past five years. His shooting percentage also dropped by almost five percentage points to 10.3 percent, which is half of what he had two years ago. Detroit may not have the offensive depth that Ottawa has, but Debrincat won’t have to worry about playing second fiddle to anyone and should see his overall ice increase by two minutes per night.
There should be some concern that Lindholm’s drop of 18 points (from 82 in 2021-22 to 64 last year) is actually him getting back to his standard pace. After all, he had an 82-game pace of 69 and 63 in the two seasons preceding that 82-point campaign. There are a few reasons to expect a bounce back for Lindholm. One is a new coach, who shouldn’t be saddling players into roles they shouldn’t be in. The second is whether you believe Jonathan Huberdeau can bounce back (more on him in a bit). If Huberdeau gets back to his old ways, expect that to trickle throughout the lineup, even if he’s not on the same line as Lindholm. There’s also the fact that Lindholm is an unrestricted free agent next summer, and you should never underestimate a player’s ability to reach career highs in a contract year.
A year ago, Klingberg bet on himself and signed a cheap, one-year deal in Anaheim. That decision was a disaster. Klingberg was awful with the Ducks, and it was only a trade to Minnesota that salvaged the season for him. In total, he finished with 33 points in 67 games, a 40-point pace. That’s a far drop from the minimum 50-point pace he put up in every season but one with Dallas. There’s some talk that he could be manning the top power-play unit in Toronto, and if that happens, a return to 50 points is in the cards. He’s also going to be on the ice at even strength with either Auston Matthews‘ line or William Nylander‘s line, which should also boost Klingberg’s numbers.
4. Connor Brown
Even before signing with the Oilers in the offseason, Brown should have been treated as a 50-point guy. In 2019-20, he had 43 points in 71 games and was on pace for 50 when Covid shut the season down. The following year, he had a 51-point pace, however it was the 56-game shortened season. The next year, he had a 50-point pace, but injuries limited him to 64 games. Last year, he played just four games before missing the rest of the season with ACL surgery. Now that he’s gone to Edmonton, where he could get a top-six role, a 50-point pace is the bare minimum.
3. Bryan Rust
Last year was disappointing for Rust owners, as the Pens forward was unable to pick up points despite top-six usage and starting the season on the top power-play unit. Even with the demotion from the man-advantage unit, Rust’s advanced stats still scream that his numbers dropped too far (his offensive zone starting percentage was a career-high 65.4 percent; his line’s expected goals for at five-on-five was a whopping 59.63; his Corsi stats were above 50 percent; and his shots-per-60 was 8.7). Maybe no one will be more helped by the arrival of Erik Karlsson than Rust. If Rust stays on the second power-play unit, he’ll have Kris Letang back there with him. No matter if he plays with Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin at even strength, he’ll be on the ice with either Letang or Karlsson. With Jake Guentzel expected to miss a month, there’s also a great opportunity for Rust to earn back that top power-play spot.
Last season went against the grain for Bertuzzi, who had seen an improvement in every season of his career (save for his nine-game, injury-plagued season of 2020-21). He had a poor time with Detroit, but the trade to Boston got him back on track. No matter where he signed this offseason, he was going to experience a rebound. However, the Leafs were one of the few teams that were absolutely ideal for Bertuzzi. Expected to play a top-six role, Bertuzzi could double his 30 points from a year ago and is a threat to reach 70 points for the first time.
You’ve seen the stats and the analysis. You don’t need me to tell you any more about how putrid his first season was as a Flame. However, it’s time to put that in the rearview mirror. With a new coach in Calgary, Huberdeau should return to the left wing after Darryl Sutter instead on keeping him on the right side all last year. Huberdeau’s ice time should also get back up into normal territory for him (around 19 minutes a night) and his power-play usage should get back up to almost 80 percent of all power-play minutes. He’s an elite player and Sutter didn’t treat him like one. That should all change this year.
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Impossible for Pacioretty to notch 30 as he is missing month(S) , Plural
Love the Wheeler reclamation project nod