Wild West: Ranking the Western Conference Teams – Part Two
Grant Campbell
2023-09-04
Before the 2022-23 season, I attempted to rank the Western Conference teams from one to sixteen and put them in tiers of being contenders, playoff-bound, bubble teams, risers or bottom dwellers.
I then re-ranked the teams at the halfway point here. Vegas started the season at #5 and moved up to #1 in January 2023 and ended up winning the Stanley Cup
We ranked the 2023-24 teams from nine to 16 here.
The 2022-23 Pre-season rankings are in parenthesis to compare where these teams were at this point last year.
On the Bubble
#8 – Vancouver Canucks (#10)
Preceding the 2022-23 season I had the Canucks at 10th overall and missing the playoffs with an outside chance of making them. Vancouver finished 11th in the West with a record of 38-37-7.
The Canucks have revamped most of their bottom-four defense with the additions of Ian Cole, Carson Soucy and Matt Irwin after buying out Oliver Ekman-Larsson and not re-signing Ethan Bear or Kyle Burroughs. They should get a full season out of Filip Hronek. On paper, the defense should be a little better.
In the forward group, they have added Teddy Blueger and Pius Suter for experience and depth. As a team, they should be much better on the penalty kill.
It's difficult to believe that J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson, Andrei Kuzmenko or Quinn Hughes will be able to increase their production much or if at all in 2023-24 and the hope is that they stay close to where they were.
Ilya Mikheyev and Tanner Pearson could both be back in October while Nils Hoglander and Vasily Podkolzin will need to show some progression.
Arturs Silovs should battle Spencer Martin for the backup goalie spot.
To make the playoffs, the Canucks will need all of their core to maintain their play from last season, and they will need Demko to be healthy and very good.
#7 – Nashville Predators (#4)
The Predators missed the playoffs in 2022-23 going 42-32-8 for 92 points. The obvious question is how can I have Nashville possibly making the playoffs in 2023-24 if they aren't as good as the roster was in 2022-23?
My answer is I thought they underperformed and were hit with quite a few injuries to key players last year, hence their #4 ranking.
Nashville will hope to get more than 50 games from Filip Forsberg in the forwards and hope for continued progression from Luke Evangelista, Philip Tomasino, Cody Glass, Thomas Novak and Juuso Parssinen.
They have added Ryan O'Reilly, Gustav Nyquist, Luke Schenn and Denis Gurianov while losing two of their cornerstones Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen.
I believe the Predators have improved their defense marginally with the addition of Schenn and the offensive contributions of Tyson Barrie for a full year (he is a pending UFA). They still have one of the best defensemen in the NHL with Roman Josi and can expect good goaltending from Jusse Saros once again.
Playoff Bound
#6 – Los Angeles Kings (#7)
When the Kings dealt Brock Faber and their 2022 1st-round draft pick (Liam Ohgren) to Minnesota for Kevin Fiala in June of 2022, it signalled that management considered this team on the cusp of contending and they had only two or three years with Anze Kopitar still playing.
Since then, Rob Blake has acquired Vladislav Gavrikov (and re-signed), and Pierre-Luc Dubois to bolster an already rising team to another level. They signed Cam Talbot as a free agent with the hope he can improve their goaltending and stay healthy.
Goaltending has been and might continue to be their Achilles heel. The Kings' top two forward lines can hold their own with almost any other team in the league. They have a few untested defenders and lack some depth if their young players struggle.
Los Angeles have given up a few young players in Gabriel Vilardi, Sean Durzi and Alex Iafallo but were able to shed just under $3 million in cap space for Cal Petersen for this year and next.
The team hopes to see progression from Quinton Byfield as well as Arthur Kaliyev, Brandt Clarke, Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Samuel Fagemo, Jordan Spence and Alex Turcotte.
Anderson-Dolan and Fagemo both require waivers to be sent back to the AHL this year.
Turcotte was the 5th overall pick in 2019 and has battled some injuries since leaving the University of Wisconsin after one year and turning pro in 2020-21. This is perhaps a make-it-or-break-it year for him with the Kings.
Anze Kopitar is 36 years of age and re-signed for three more years, so that is the King’s current window.
#5 – Calgary Flames (#3)
The 2023-24 season is extremely pivotal for the Flames as Elias Lindholm, Mikael Backlund, Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev are all impending UFAs. Jordan Oesterle, Nikita Zadorov and Oliver Kylington are also set to become UFAs as well.
Calgary narrowly missed the playoffs in 2022-23 going 38-27-17 in what was a very disappointing season for them. On paper, they were a much better team than what they actually did. The team will hope for rebound seasons from Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau, Andrew Mangiapane, Jacob Markstrom and perhaps Mackenzie Weegar.
The Flames traded Tyler Toffoli for Yegor Sarangovich and a 3rd round pick in Craig Conroy's first trade as the new GM. In the short term, the Flames regressed but gained six years of age and just over one million in cap space.
Down the middle, Calgary is very solid with Lindholm, Kadri and Backlund but will need continued improvement from Dillon Dube, Sharangovich, Adam Ruzicka, Jakob Pelletier and Walker Duehr. They hope that Matt Coronato will become a regular while Kylington regains his form from 2021-22 after missing a full year. As the roster currently stands, the Flames are extremely young and inexperienced in their bottom-six which could change or be an issue going forward.
On defense, Oesterle was added as a free agent to add some depth but other than getting Kylington back, the defense is mostly the same.
This team should be too good to miss the playoffs once again, but the same could have been said in 2022-23.
#4 – Dallas Stars (#11)
Dallas had a very good 2022-23 where they went 47-21-14 and finished 4th in the West before beating Minnesota and Seattle in the first two rounds and losing to the eventual Stanley cup winning Vegas Golden Knights in the Conference Finals.
The Stars had seasons from Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski, Miro Heiskanen and Jamie Benn which will be hard to duplicate or exceed.
Dallas will hope to see some continued progression from Wyatt Johnston, Ty Dellandrea, Nils Lundkvist and a regular role for Thomas Harley.
The team has added Matt Duchene, Craig Smith and Sam Steel. Duchene is a big addition to the roster and is only two seasons removed from 43 goals and 43 assists when he was with Nashville. Dallas now has the 2nd overall pick from the 2010 draft in Tyler Seguin and the 3rd overall pick from the 2009 draft with Duchene.
The Stars have moved on from Max Domi, Colin Miller, Luke Glendening and Joel Kiviranta.
This team should be able to win 45 games and get back to over 100 points.
Contenders
#3 – Vegas Golden Knights (#5)
Vegas won the Stanley Cup in 2022-23 after being first in the West during the regular season going 51-22-9 for 111 points.
Rosters that win the Cup are usually not the same the following season as it is so hard to keep a winning roster intact.
The Golden Knights haven't added any players externally and won't be bringing back Phil Kessel, Reilly Smith, Jonathan Quick and Teddy Blueger.
Vegas will more than likely miss Reilly Smith the most as he had 26 goals and 30 assists in 78 games and killed penalties over 30 percent of the time in his six years with the Golden Knights.
If Mark Stone can't play more than 43 games again, Smith's spot at RW will be split between Pavel Dorofeyev, Michael Amadio, Jonas Rondbjerg or Keegan Kolesar. A regular opportunity for Dorofeyev or Rondbjerg could open up.
Brett Howden had an excellent playoff with five goals and five assists in 22 games after just six goals and seven assists in 54 games. He saw some an elevated role during the playoffs which could extend into 2023-24.
One of the main strengths of this roster is their defense and it should be the same as 2022-23.
In goal, Vegas re-signed Adin HIll and will have Logan Thompson as well. It will be interesting to see how they allocate the duties in net after Hill had such a good playoff and signed for $4.9 million AAV to Thompson's $766k AAV for the next two years for each. Robin Lehner is still under contract for two more years and it's not outside the realm of possibilities that he returns at some point.
There always seems to be a bit of a letdown for Stanley Cup winners in the regular season, but I think Vegas is still a lock for 45 wins and 100 points for another playoff berth for a roster which is ideal for 16 wins in the playoffs.
#2 – Colorado Avalanche (#1)
The Avalanche finished 3rd overall in the West going 51-24-7 for 109 points. They were shocked by the Seattle Kraken in the first round losing in seven games after Colorado won the Stanley Cup in 2021-22.
After 2021-22, Colorado was decimated in their forward group losing Nazem Kadri, Andrei Burakovsky and Gabriel Landeskog all from their top-six. They lacked the depth in 2022-23 in their forwards and while still a very good team, they weren't nearly as dominant, especially when Nathan MacKinnon or Valeri Nichushkin missed games.
This off season, they addressed their bottom six issues and have added Ryan Johansen, Jonathan Drouin, Miles Wood and Ross Colton.
They moved on from J.T. Compher, Evan Rodrigues and Alex Newhook.
Johansen (57.0) should be an upgrade in the face off circle over Compher (48.8) while Drouin is more of a gamble. Drouin will hopefully be given some opportunity to succeed on the power play and in the top-six.
Wood and Colton should be upgrades on the bottom-six for this roster as both of them are quite capable of scoring 15-20 goals while providing solid defensive play. Colton is approaching his breakout threshold with 190 career games.
The defense and goaltending should both be the same from 2022-23.
Colorado will hope for progression from Ben Meyers, Frederik Olofsson and Jean-Luc Foudy. Bowen Byram will hope to remain healthy and play more than 60 games.
I think the Avalanche should reach 50 wins once again and be one of the favorites for the Cup. They have improved their roster in my opinion. Having said that, success revolves around a healthy MacKinnon.
#1 – Edmonton Oilers (#2)
The Oilers finished second overall in the West with a record of 50-23-9 for 109 points before losing to Vegas in the second round.
Edmonton has moved on from Kailer Yamamoto, Klim Kostin and Devin Shore.
The Oilers have added Connor Brown to replace Yamamoto and Lane Pederson for bottom six depth.
Some people think that the Oilers missed a prime opportunity in 2022-23 with both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl healthy in the playoffs, but Vegas deserved victory in their series.
They have tinkered with bringing in Brown for Yamamoto, but other than that the roster is the same. The 2023-24 season is all about playoff success and anything less than a Cup might be considered a fail.
The team might miss Kostin but are hoping Dylan Holloway can fill that void and he has a much higher ceiling offensively down the road. Improvement or progression is hoped for from Ryan Mcleod, Holloway, Vincent Desharnais and Jack Campbell. Edmonton hopes the Evan Bouchard of the playoffs is the Bouchard of 2023-24.
The Oilers should reach 50 wins once again and be a favorite come playoff time for the Cup.
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