Labour Day is behind us, and NHL training camps are just around the corner. The end of the pre-camp fantasy draft season is about to end as information on injuries, rookies, and lineup changes start to roll in. The fantasy draft campaign is almost upon us.

I have recently finished my forward projections for this season except for rookies – they are a special case that requires more attention. The next two Ramblings will be discussing the goal, assist, and point totals that these projections have spit out to see if we can mine for some fantasy value. The data used in these projections comes mostly from our Frozen Tools, Natural Stat Trick, and AllThreeZones.

The first caveat is these are going to be refined further. Age/usage adjustments have been made but updates will be made throughout training camps. It means there will be changes from what is presented today and what final projections look like on October 10^th, the first day of the season.

The second caveat is I project starting rosters to play all 82 games. Unless a player is slated to miss the entire season – Gabriel Landeskog comes to mind – they are projected here for a full year. The reason is most of my in-season work is in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) realm and DFS doesn't care about an injury a player might suffer in three months' time; DFS only cares about what is happening on a given day, so I need to have a player's 82-game output projected to scale it down to a per-game basis. We also don't have much for updates on player injuries from last season/offseason like Joel Eriksson Ek or Brandon Montour outside of vague timelines. Adjustments will be made to games played projections once we get clarity on how much (if any) time players like Eriksson Ek and Montour might miss. Until then, everyone plays 82 games.

The final caveat is they're all listed as forwards – no left/right wing or centres – until we get more updates on player positions. We do this because, for example, Jordan Kyrou is listed as a centre on Underdog despite 48 career faceoffs in 252 games; Jack Hughes is multi-position eligible, and Mikko Rantanen is not despite similar faceoff numbers in 2022-23. I will wait a few weeks before parsing that.

With all that out of the way, let's highlight some forwards and what my early projections say. For a much more complete list including projections, line combinations, depth charts, and rookie information, head on over to the Dobber Shop and grab your copy of the 2023-24 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide.

The Top Five

Projections spit out five players that should crack the 110-point mark and there may not be huge surprises, but it does highlight what is anticipated from young Jack Hughes:

Hughes paced for 104 points/82 games a year ago, is turning 22 years old, has shown all-world offensive skill already, and is on a high-end offensive team. Adding eight points really does not seem far-fetched in a full campaign.

Nathan MacKinnon was third in points/game last season and only trailed Leon Draisaitl because of Edmonton's historic power play. Injuries have been cropping up for a few years now and Colorado's star is coming off a season where he played over 22 minutes a night. The concerns are real but if Connor McDavid somehow doesn't end up the top player in fantasy, MacKinnon is one of the few who can take the top spot.

The 90-Plus Performers

There are over 16 forwards projected for somewhere between 90-110 points but most of that group isn't worth discussing. There is a group of three projected between 91-93 points that I do want to discuss:

Johnny Gaudreau is fascinating. We all remember his 115-point season so that makes his 74 points in 2022-23 a comparative disappointment. He only posted 0.83 and 0.88 points per game from 2019-2021, so it's not as if he's a slam-dunk 90-point guy. All the same, had he shot 13.2% (his three-year average from 2019-22) instead of 9.5%, he adds eight goals, pushes 30 in a full year, and is a point-per-game guy. Projections are expecting much better even-strength production with an improving (and healthy) team around him and that puts 90 points back on the menu.

It was a step back for Robert Thomas in 2022-23 as he lost 15 even-strength assists when compared to 2021-22, even with 60 more minutes played. Over his first four seasons, Thomas assisted on 53.2% of the goals St. Louis scored with him on the ice at even strength, a number that fell to 42.3% in 2022-23. If that rate had been normal, he's just shy of a point-per-game player. Rebounds at even strength, and a small PP improvement, have him as a 90-point guy.

Finally, we get to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He was one of the big fantasy surprises of 2022-23 as the 29-year-old forward, who had zero 30-goal or 70-point seasons prior, posted 37 goals and 104 points. His surge was largely on the back of that same historic power play and while he should get his role back, just small normalizations at even strength and on the PP would cost him 10-plus points. He could still produce at a high level and not get back to 100 points.

Familiar Faces In New Places

A bunch of players moved in the offseason, but I want to highlight a half-dozen notable fantasy options:

Let's touch on them quickly.

In 2022-23, Alex DeBrincat put up fewer even-strength points (36) in 82 games played than he did in the Bubble 2021 season (37) when he suited up just 52 times. More minutes, Dylan Larkin as his centre, and a natural positive regression should see DeBrincat as a borderline point-per-game player.

Vladimir Tarasenko feels like a wild card this season. The lineup is still facing uncertainty and he had a steep production drop-off last year – his age-31 season – after battling injuries in his late-20s. Regardless, assuming a top-line role on a heavily used top PP unit means 70 points are well within reach. It feels like there's a wide range of outcomes here, though.  

It wasn't that hard to project Tyler Bertuzzi as it seems he's a suitable replacement for Michael Bunting on Toronto's top line. It gives us a plausible range for his even-strength production, and he'll spend some time on the top PP unit (though not the majority of it). A strong season is in the forecast though if he gets any top PPTOI, that's bad news for William Nylander.

Pierre-Luc Dubois is one player whose fantasy outlook could change a lot depending on what they do in camp. He looks like he might split middle-6 centre duties with Phillip Danault and that's not good for his ice time. Los Angeles should also run two split PP units and while that puts 20 PPPs in range, it puts 30 in doubt. Combine that with middle-6 wingers that usually have trouble finishing and the projections are not high on the move for fantasy purposes, even if it improves the team in real life.

It was surprising to see Matt Duchene as high as he is. He faces the same issues as Pierre-Luc Dubois, but Dallas runs a top power play that eats a lot of the minutes, and Duchene is not slated to start the season there. There is some top PP time coming his way but if he is on PP2 for much of the year, 55 points feels reasonable.

Finally, Cup champ Reilly Smith is another guy whose value can change a lot. If we get news that Jake Guentzel has suffered an injury setback and he won't return until mid-November, and misses 15 games rather than five, Smith could see a small bump. Regardless, he isn't a reliable option for a full year of top PPTOI, and Guentzel was the only Penguins winger to reach 40 ES points last season. It is hard to see Smith putting up much more than 50 points unless Guentzel is injured for a while. Even then, Bryan Rust may just get the top PP role, or the team could run a 3F/2D setup with Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson.

Aho Lotta Production Issues

One thing discussed in these Ramblings this summer is if Carolina is intending to change the way they play. Dmitry Orlov is not a defenceman that plays like Carolina's d-men typically play; AllThreeZones has Orlov as one of the most active defencemen by zone entries in the entire league (5.94 per 60 minutes at 5-on-5), and considerably higher than even the most involved Carolina blue liner, which was Jalen Chatfield at 3.4 entries per 60 minutes. Even Tony DeAngelo's zone entry rate wasn't elite in Philadelphia last year (3.5/60) and he was still higher than any Hurricanes rearguard.

All that to say this: I wonder if Carolina's offence will play more off the rush than they did last season, which was very little. That kind of scenario could help their scorers because as it is, my projections on Sebastian Aho are very muted:

Before getting the pitchforks out, Aho has averaged 39 goals and 40 assists per 82 games over the last two seasons and these projections think he'll basically repeat those marks. Certainly not a bad season, but fantasy owners know he's capable of more, and it'd be nice to see it this season under a revamped offence.

Andrei Svechnikov getting to 77 points would easily be a career-high for him and with his peripheral contributions, it would make him a great fantasy option. These projections think the breakout isn't far off for Svech, which makes the dichotomy between him and Aho interesting.

The Habs

Lastly, just for fun, I want to discuss Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki from my beloved Montreal Canadiens:

Of course, those projections differ wildly underneath. Caufield's projection is for roughly 39 goals and 23 assists, while Suzuki's sits roughly at 27 goals and 43 assists. The bigger issue is the power play. It was bad last year, and the year before, and hasn't been good in several seasons. Having this young duo be a year older – a year more experienced – with Mike Matheson healthy should make a difference. It is still one of those "I need to see it to believe it" things, though. To hammer that point home: Suzuki played all 82 games last year and had the fourth-lowest power-play point total (17) of any forward since 2005 that has averaged over 21 minutes a game and played at least 80 games. In a sample of over 70 forwards, that's very bad. I have confidence things will be better in 2023-24, but it's hard to project it as such with so much recent futility with many of these same players.

The next Ramblings will dig into players with very interesting projections.