Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a points only keeper, how should these defensemen be ranked: Mikhail Sergachev, Moritz Seider, Noah Dobson, Vince Dunn, Zach Werenski, John Carlson?

I'm a big believer in Werenski, as in his first four seasons in the NHL he had a cumulative rate of 0.186+ goals per game in each of those campaigns, and all before the age of 23. Only four other defensemen met that criteria in the entire history of the NHL, Bobby Orr, Ray Bourque, Phil Housley, and Larry Murphy, and each of them had a minimum of two 80+ point seasons. Yes, past results don't dictate future outcomes; however, this is a very impressive list on which to find oneself.

Still, this is a ranking, and Werenski is coming off a largely lost season for both him, due to missing most of the season with an injury, and his team, because they fared so poorly. As such, his value never has been – and likely never will be – lower. For that reason, I'm ranking him only fifth. In other words, he deserves to be ranked higher based on his skill and potential, but name value and "what have you done for me lately" concerns push him into redraft territory.

I don't have him last though – that goes to Dobson. He's simply on the wrong team. He's had great PP IPPs, but his team can't click on the man advantage. Their defensive emphasis for the duration of his young career has held him back. Also, unlike the very real possibility that the Blue Jackets have a major bounce back, I see more of the same for the Islanders in 2023-24 and possibly beyond, so Dobson brings up the rear.

The fourth spot goes to Carlson. He is a proven scorer, but he's also not getting any younger and coming back from a major injury. The Caps have seen their offense score at a lower rate for three straight seasons, a trend I see continuing given the age of other key players and their injury risk. So although Carlson could potentially be the top scorer of the group in 2023-24 he can't be ranked higher than fourth due to the question marks involved.

Third goes to Dunn. He's now being paid like a star, and the Kraken see him as their source for blueline offense. The team was fourth in goals last season and it's not clear they have the talent to make that kind of magic happen again. Although I think Dunn is very solid, he can only occupy third in view of his circumstances versus those of the other two.

Seider I have in second, as although 2022-23 looked like a step back let's keep in mind that he started his season with a mere four points in 16 games. He also somehow had five fewer PPPts than he did as a rookie. But he's now "the guy" in every way, and the Red Wings are a vastly improved team, such that Seider should explode. He also gains points due to this being a keeper and him being the youngest of the lot.

The top spot is Sergachev, and in my opinion it's not even close. Yes, it turns out Victor Hedman was playing hurt for at least part of 2022-23; however, Sergachev likely would've made similar inroads even if that had not been the case. Sergachev is being paid more than Hedman now, plus plays for a Tampa squad that still should be an offensive force. He too is not that old despite how long he's been in the NHL. He's the clear number one to me.

Topic #2 – In a points only keeper, should Kirill Kaprizov be traded for Matthew Tkachuk?

What difference just one year can make, as Kaprizov had exploded in 2021-22 and was widely regarded as someone who'd likely only get better, what with not even having hit his breakout threshold. Tkachuk had an equally successful 2021-22 campaign; but this time last year many felt his output was a by-product of being on a line largely driven by Johnny Gaudreau. Fast forward to now, however, and Kaprizov came back to earth somewhat in 2022-23 while Thachuk went to Florida and erased any doubt that he's a top tier talent.

One thing to keep in mind is although Tkachuk has logged 300 more NHL games that Kaprizov, it's Kaprizov who is older by just under a year. Yes, with the rough and tumble style Tkachuk plays he is vulnerable to breaking down earlier than most; however, Kaprizov also is less likely to have another gear beyond what we saw in 2021-22.

Something else to keep in mind is Kaprizov will be 28 years old when the Wild finally emerge from their cap penalty hell for the 2025-26 season. Until then, he will need to basically be a one-man show. That worked in 2021-22, but less so in 2022-23. Which of those seasons was more "for real"?" To me, I'd say neither, as I see him being more like a 100 point player, with his secondary assist rate dropping in 2022-23, but his OZ% rising, as did his ice time, to a level where it's difficult to see it climbing further. His IPPs were a tad lower in 2022-23, but still great. His SH% dropped a bit, but he also shot more, for a wash. His PPPts rose despite playing in 14 fewer games, and it's not clear that will be sustainable, although an argument for them staying that high is he's always going to be by far the most talented player on the ice for PP1 so he should be able to factor into a high percentage of PPGs. In all, I see Kaprizov's output for at least the next two seasons being right in the middle of what they were the prior two.

As for Tkachuk, he showed 2021-22 was no fluke, and managed to get better as the season unfolded, with 56 points in 38 second half games, versus 53 in 41 to start. Yes, there is some concern he might have lingering issues from playing hurt in the postseason; but most likely he will be his usual self for most if not all 2023-24. Although Tkachuk's SH% dropped as his SOG rate rose, that means there's room for it to climb back. He also is surrounded by a lot more talent, yet that was not an impediment to him scoring. With Kaprizov, we can't be sure he will be as productive when not tasked to carry the load by himself in a couple of seasons. For Tkcahuk though we don't have that worry since Florida had no shortage of excellent players but he still managed to be incredibly productive.

In the end, Tkachuk's only question mark is his ability to remain healthy, while with Kaprizov it's him being older, not having a supporting cast for two more seasons, but also some metrics that suggest his output in 2021-22 was unsustainable high. It's still close, but I think if both players are healthy I have Tkachuk outscoring Kaprizov by roughly ten points, so this is a trade I make without much hesitation.

Topic #3 – In a H2H keeper with categories of G, A, P, Plus/Minus, PIM, SHP, PPP, FOW, HIT, BLK, SOG, GWG, who is the better own: Elias Pettersson or Mitch Marner?

Another player comparison which would've seemed lopsided a year ago. But that was before EP broke out in a major way, rising to Marner-like levels.

With Marner, we have to be able to sniff out whether 2021-22 was an outlier, as is sure seems to be, what with a scoring pace between 93 and 101 in his other three most recent seasons. In that 2021-22 season, Marner set career bests in SOG and SH%, which is not something normally seen, as often when one rises the other falls. Sure enough, Marner was back below three SOG per game for 2022-23. And it also took a career best PPPt total and his highest ever secondary assist rate for Marner to reach his normal scoring level. The good news for Marner is with Auston Matthews re-upping, it's clear Toronto won't blow things up as many thought they might end up doing if Matthews left. Still, all that does is enable Marner to retain a value as roughly a 100-point player.

And that level, which, as noted, Marner has achieved essentially three times, is where EP landed in his breakout campaign. What's good to see about Pettersson's output is his SOG rate rose by 33% but his SH% stayed in his usual range. He also added nearly 2:00 of ice time, making it easier to see him being a legitimate top scorer. Yet he's remained not great on the PP, with the 20th most PP minutes among all forwards but tied for 39th in PP scoring in 2022-23. Still, he didn't do worse in that area than 2021-22, just not better. So there really is only one way for him to go, and that's up. Pettersson's IPP was over 70% after not coming close to that range for the three prior seasons. But he had a nearly identical IPP as a rookie, making it less concerning. And his IPP on the PP, although never strong, was low even for him. His secondary assist rate was a three season low, and his OZ% was under 55%. In short, I see no reason why Pettersson can't duplicate or even surpass his scoring rate from 2022-23 in 2023-24 and beyond.

On paper, they stack up pretty close, although I like EP's chances of posting a 110+ rate for the first time more so than Marner repeating that feat. Also, EP did what he did when the Canucks were not a great team, while Marner benefitted from the Leafs' offensive prowess. EP also is about 18 months younger than Marner. Looking at the categories, they give the edge to EP, as he nearly doubled Marner's BLK+HIT total, and is a very solid SHP contributor. Yes, Marner will get more PPPts, but EP could make gains. But EP is a center, which is one of the deepest of all positions in fantasy, whereas Marner is a RW, where the talent is much thinner. If they both played the same position I'd feel comfortable giving the edge to Pettersson; however, the RW factor, and Marner's proven track and higher floor, probably put him a notch above Pettersson.

Topic #4 – For the inaugural dynasty draft for a new 32 team league with a salary cap and floor that are the same as the Real NHL, and skater stats of G=1, A=1, SOG = 0.1, who is the best own for long term: Shane Wright, Juraj Slafkovsky, Kaapo Kakko, Alexis Lafreniere?

The key here is long term. I take that to mean the next 1-3 years can be disregarded if a player will prove to be the best of the bunch once we look further down the road. And although none of these players will be older than 22 when the puck drops in October, the two Ranger forwards both have already logged 200+ games, with what I'd say is pretty safe to say has been subpar results versus expectations. That can be overlooked if signs point to them still panning out.

What's my take on the Ranger duo? In a recent column I noted that Laffy had stats in his first three seasons at his ages which put him in the same ballpark as Marco Sturm, Taylor Pyatt, and Dainius Zubrus. Two of those three were not busts by any means; however, neither one was anywhere near a great player, and they didn't pan out until age 27. Looking at what Laffy has done, there's not a lot to like. Yes, technically his scoring rate has risen every season. But he's never even once hit the point per every other game mark, nor averaged two SOG per game. And despite some thinking he's been held back, that isn't really true, as for stretches in each of the past two seasons he was given long looks in the top six, with disappointing results.

As for Kakko, he too has never hit the point per every other game mark, and he's played one more season than Laffy, albeit only a couple dozen more total games. And Kakko is a larger player, so it's possible he might break out later. But his SOG rate has been even weaker than Laffy's. Still Kakko posted 15 PPPts as a rookie and in 2022-23 put together a stretch of 24 points in 40 games when playing both in the top six and on the third line. I'd say that he might end up having a higher floor than Laffy, but I think that of the two Laffy has the potential to still have a true breakout, whereas Kakko likely won't be more than a 60ish point player.

As for the others, we've had a very limited sample size. What I like about Wright is as he is developing he can be mentored by Kraken veterans, with the goal being for him and Matty Beniers to be cornerstone players for the franchise in three to five years. Although the Kraken adopted a three-line approach in 2022-23 that paid dividends, I only see that as the way they envision the team most likely succeeding for the time being. In other words, we should not focus on envisioning how Wright will fit into the current Kraken team approach since chances are by the time Wright is ready for prime time the team will look a lot different and will be prepared to heap ice time on him and Beniers to shine.

Slafkovsky, the hulking winger, did not look completely outclassed in his time with Montreal in 2022-23. Where I have concerns is him playing in a market like Montreal. Yes, when a player succeeds he can be a hero to the Habs' faithful; however, many a youngster has folded under the pressure of the spotlight and scrutiny of playing in that market. Still, this is a first overall pick; and although past results don't dictate future outcomes, Laffy aside the last dozen or so forwards selected first overall have all fared quite well. With Slaf it will perhaps take time, but I see him as becoming a force, with 80-90+ point upside.

My ranking would be Slafkovsky first, followed by Wright. Then there's a big gap, after which it would be Kakko if looking for a higher floor, or Laffy if hoping for a higher ceiling and willing to risk a lower floor.

Topic #5 –In a ten team, keep ten league starting 3C, 3RW, 3LW, 3F, 6D, 2G daily and scoring categories of G, A, PPPts, SOG, FOW, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV%, SV, a team is planning to keep Nikita Kucherov, Mikko Rantanen, Dylan Larkin, Jake Guentzel, Andrei Svechnikov, Bo Horvat, Patrik Laine, and Rasmus Dahlin, and isn't sure which two remaining players to keep from the following: Martin Necas, Mathew Barzal, Jake DeBrusk, Brandon Hagel, Andrei Kuzmenko, Tyler Toffoli, Jacob Markstrom, and Philipp Grubauer.

First things first – I think there are some maybes on the planned keeper list, notably Horvat, Laine and Guentzel. We'll see if they end up passing muster.

Looking at the other choices, I won't belabor things with Kuzmenko, as I've probably said no fewer than a half dozen times that in all my years writing about fantasy hockey I've never seen a player with so many factors that pointed to unsustainable good luck in 2022-23. Suffice it to say, he's not even a maybe to me.

Although Hagel's new contract shows the Bolts see him as the real deal, I'm not certain how much better he can get, as six of his points came on empty net goals, padding his numbers to a non-nominal extent. Still, with Alex Killorn gone, Hagel likely will finally have a permanent seat at the PP1 table, which is huge. He is a likely keeper.

Barzal deserves a fate better than he's had. If he were on at least a dozen other teams and put on the top line he'd likely have point per game downside. But instead he plays for the Islanders, a team who know their fate is more tied to preventing the other team from scoring as being able to score themselves. Still, Barzal is intriguing since he might get winger eligibility if he plays with Horvat. Let's say both of them are maybes too.

I like what DeBrusk did in 2022-23, and no one in the entire NHL might be more motivated than DeBrusk, who has never seemed happy in Boston and is playing for a UFA deal. But without top tier centers to pass him the puck, is he likely to be better than Hagel? I'd say no, so I'd put him down as a non-keep.

Toffoli has a chance to be an impact player on New Jersey. Where concern lies, however, is the team has four other players who seem earmarked for PP1 in Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, and Nico Hischier. I don't see them trying to form two equally good PP units, not with a player like Hughes; so if Toffoli is the odd man out for PP1 then even if he gets a spot in the top six at ES, which I believe he will, his uncertain PP role is of concern.

Necas made major strides in 2022-23; however, the Canes have found a winning formula of not playing anyone a ton, instead spreading around offense. I know in the thread the poster said Necas was a lock, but I'm not entirely sure.

Then there's the debate about Markstrom. Not keeping a goalie seems risky. Yes, on paper if each team keeps one then Markstrom would be "worse" than most everyone else who's kept, and instead the team can just draft him, or someone else. Although Calgary seems poised to be better than last season, I think Markstrom is too iffy to command a keeper spot. While Seattle looked great and Grubauer settled in nicely in the second half, he's not an upgrade and thus is not keeper material either.

Given all that, I think all the projected keepers should indeed be kept except for Horvat, who I know is great with FOW but I just feel won't score enough, and Laine, who I see more and more as a younger version of Ilya Kovalchuk, who went from major talent to indifferent enigma. That leaves four spots for keepers, and I'm going with Hagel, Barzal, Necas and Toffoli. Yes, Toffoli is a risk, but I think he'll force the issue in New Jersey and do well enough to be worthwhile.

Topic #6 – In points only, who has the best long term potential out of Marco Rossi, Seth Jarvis or Owen Tippett?

I've written several times about how I feel Rossi has an uphill battle to even be fantasy relevant. After all, he plays center, and the fact is there just aren't many players as short or shorter than his 5'9'' who've found any success at that position. In fact, we have to go back to Derek Roy and Daniel Briere to point to two, with only 31 centers that short or shorter playing a collective 100+ games dating back to 2000-01; and other than the aforementioned Briere and Roy, only David Desharnais and Tyler Johnson bested the point per every other game mark, and neither of those two had any sustained impact. The other issue is Rossi is not going to center Kirill Kaprizov so long as Kaprizov is tethered to Mats Zuccarello, with whom he's shown outstanding chemistry, since putting Kaprizov out there with two pip squeaks would not be a wise move, as teams would likely take liberties with Kaprizov. It's no coincidence, I believe, that Minnesota keeps putting Ryan Hartman out with Kaprizov, as his more physical game is better suited to being the third wheel on that line even if he supposedly has less raw talent than Rossi. Is Rossi going to displace Joel Eriksson-Ek from the second line or PP1? Highly doubtful, as all Eriksson-Ek has done is improve his scoring rate and ice time for five straight seasons. I'm putting Rossi in last, as I feel he either needs to be traded or he might be in danger of not panning out.

Jarvis looks to have a brighter future, although for him to slot into the top six it would seemingly take Teuvo Teravainen dropping to the third line. And Jarvis will have to prove his worth, as last season he had plenty of chances with the team's big guns, but disappointed. Also, his 70.2% IPP that he posted as a rookie plummeted to just over 50%. This year will be very telling. But I think the Canes want him to succeed and will do what they can to make that happen. The good news is they don't play any lines too much; so if Jarvis is on the second line and PP2, it's not as big a deal as it would be for many other teams.

As for Tippett, I covered him in my Bubble Keeper Week edition of Goldipucks, where I pointed out his SOG rate went supernova, rising from 2.41 in Q1 to 3.90 in Q4, on his way to posting 15 points in his final 15 contests. And his goal scoring wasn't just at ES, as despite receiving the 121st most PP minutes of any forward, his eight PPGs tied him for 57th, with just one forward who had more PPGs having fewer than his 12 PPPts. He showed excellent chemistry with Morgan Frost, who, like Tippett, will hit his breakout threshold in 2023-24. And before poolies assume Sean Couturier's return means low ice times for Tippett and Frost, remember that they are playing for John Tortorella, who likely will look for Couturier to go back to more of his two way center ways, rather than the scorer he'd become.

Long term I think Jarvis and Tippett are close. Rossi is too risky for me. Yes, there is a universe where Rossi transcends comparables and stars; but I think Jarvis and Tippett are surer things and I'd put Jarvis slightly ahead due to team and age, but Tippett at a very close second.

Topic #7 – How "for real" is Carter Verhaeghe?

Let's compare Verhaeghe versus a current NHLer who I'll refer to for now as "Player B." We know that Verhaghe didn't become an NHL regular until age 26, and bested a 60-point pace at age 27. Player B was a regular earlier, but didn't top a 60-point pace for the second time until also age 27. Player B's high in PPPts by that age 27 season was eight, which is one more than Verhaeghe's career best seven in 2022-23. Player B topped the three SOG per game mark for the first time in that age 27 season, which is a feat Verhaeghe also first did in 2022-23 at age 27. I think it's safe to say comparing the two would not be a stretch at all.

Who is Player B? None other than Brad Marchand, who broke out to the tune of an 85 point pace in his age 28 season, and then proceeded to produce north of a 100 point pace in each of his next four campaigns, largely on the strength of newfound PP time and scoring. The issue for Verhaeghe is he plays for one of the only teams in the NHL who've made a habit out of using two d-men on PP1. But there's no guarantee that will continue, or, even if it does, that Aaron Ekblad, a Band-Aid Boy, will remain healthy for anywhere close to 82 games. Verhaeghe might just force the issue, as in the last two playoff games for Florida in 2023, Verhaeghe played 100% and 61.7% of available PP time. In other words, when their season was on the line, they had no qualms about turning to Verhaeghe on the PP.

The other thing to like is even as Verhaeghe has spent more and more time playing alongside the best of the best for Florida, he still has a nose for scoring, with an IPP over 70% in each of the last three seasons. That is hugely important and bodes well for him to show he has yet another gear, as does the fact he's played only 254 career games, which, although past his 200 game breakout threshold, is still not far beyond it, suggesting improvement is realistic. And Marchand was right around the same number of games beyond his "small stature' 400-game breakout threshold when he took that first step toward stardom at age 28.

Long story short, I think Verhaeghe is very much for real. And although predicting he'll follow a path similar to Marchand is still a stretch, it's also plausible given the similarities. I'd be looking to acquire or draft Verhaeghe in as many leagues as possible, even factoring in a higher price you'll have to pay due to his strong showing in the 2023 playoffs.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.