We're into September, and my first couple of fantasy drafts are less than two weeks away. Usually it's a lot better to have the drafts closer to the season so late injuries, demotions, etc aren't as impactful. However, when you find a date that can work for every single league-mate, you run with it.

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With a busy weekend rolling into a busy start to the week, I took to Twitter and some of my fantasy leagues for some Ramblings topics. For some reason, sometimes it's easier to talk about topics that weren't your own questions. Probably something about challenging your pre-conceived notions and assumptions. It's a good thing to do every once in a while, and helping answer questions for others is really how you learn the most anyways, so questions are always welcome.

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Besides the big 5 (Bedard, Fantilli, Michkov, Carlsson and Smith), top 5 2023 draft pick by multi cat fantasy upside and 5 dark horses (lesser known names) from same draft. If you have space D's ranked by fantasy upside. Thanks Alex

— Frank B 🟧🌻 (@lanky_frank) September 5, 2023

Let's start with the next set of picks after the top-five. I'm going to split it into forwards and defencemen, because the value between the two positions really varies depending on your league, what kind of timeline the prospects should have, and a whole bunch of other factors.

Forwards:

Zach Benson

Ryan Leonard

Dalibor Dvorsky

Oliver Moore

Matthew Wood

Defencemen:

Dmitri Simashev

David Reinbacher

Axel Sandin Pellikka

Mikhail Gulyayev

Tom Willander

On the forward side, Leonard has the bigger banger upside, but Benson is definitely the highest scoring upside outside of the top-five. Dvorksy and Moore have higher offensive ceilings and some ability to pad various stats too. Wood shoots a ton, and may not hit or take penalties at a prodigious rate, but the scoring and shot volume can make up for it and tends to be move valuable to find anyways. A couple of them could hit in 2024-25, but I doubt any of them play more than a handful of games this season.

On defence, if Simashev's offense comes through, then there is a ton of upside in just about every category. Reinbacher is a much safer pick, and will likely outpoint Simashev while playing a lot of minutes. Possibly not a stack of hits, but the minutes will lend themselves to volume. ASP and Gulyayev are the next two highest offensive ceilings, though you will probably give up some of the banger categories.

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Question from one of my league-mates:

"Who will be the best value moving forward (as cap rises). Like, who's deal looks "ok" this year but will be the best bargain in 2-3 years from now? To simplify it, who is on the next "Nathan MacKinnon" contract? Is it Jack Hughes?"

Jack Hughes is definitely one of the first ones that comes to mind. The big difference over the next number of years compared to 5-10 years ago is that the cap is supposed to be rising a lot faster now (the one benefit of inflation). As a result of this, any contracts that are signed now for the full seven or eight-year term, are the ones we want to be looking at. Hughes is going to be scoring over a 100-point-pace every year, and in a few years the $8 million price tag might not just be for the top two forwards.

If not Hughes, then it has to be someone cheaper. Tage Thompson would be next on the list, with his $7.1 million cap hit. He's a volume shooter like Hughes, but he does also add hits and PIMs. The scoring rates are also fairly close, and both are on two of the best up-and-coming teams. Either one is going to be an excellent option similar to McDavid the last number of years.

The other name that I thought of was Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He just scored 100 points, and is signed to a $5.125 million deal for another six years. Already cheaper than MacKinnon's bargain deal was, and if he can keep up anywhere in the 80- to 100-point range, then it's going to be in contention for the best deals around.

Tim Stutzle, Clayton Keller, and Matthew Boldy would be some other HMs to note.

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Dynasty league, in win now mode. Keep two of the three, Raymond, Dobson, Burns. D are a premium asset in this league.

— Steve Polychronopolous (@Kingchev93) September 5, 2023

I don't own any of the three players in any of my leagues, which always makes this kind of thing fun to look into.

The first thing that jumps out is the positional and the age discrepancy. Between those two, Noah Dobson stands out as the best option of the three. The Isles can't be worse offensively, and if Mat Baral can get back to his 90-point days playing on Bo Horvat's wing, then there is a lot of upside there (on top of some great peripherals).

Brent Burns is going to be a great asset again this year, and could/should be the best of the three for the 2023-24 season, quarter-backing the Canes' top power play again. Defencemen that can score 60-points aren't easy to come by, especially when they bring something like Burns' shot volume too. He is starting to show some signs of age as I got into earlier in the summer, but next year won't be too much of an issue.

Lucas Raymond is the wildcard of the bunch. His production will really come down to whether he is playing with Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat, or if he gets shuffled down the lineup again. Pacing for 60-points by the mid-way point last year, Raymod cooled significantly and only finished with 45 in 74 games. He's half-a-season away from his breakout threshold though, so the interesting play may be to let Raymond go, take the season of production of Burns, and then try to re-acquire Raymond around Christmas. Or, he's easier to re-draft later than Burns will go.

It will come down to the age and position that you feel most comfortable with, but generally I think keeping Burns sounds like the right call here – or at least the choice I would make.

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Question from one of my league-mates:

"What are the odds of a Bryan Rust bounce-back season, especially with Guentzel out to start the season?"

Unfortunately, as a Rust owner myself in my dynasty league, not as high a percentage as I would like. I don’t think he gets the PP production this year, regardless of Guentzel's status. Rust's even strength production should bounce back with Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang around feeding him pucks, while I think Ryan Graves also makes a big difference. Having some better role players like Lars Eller in the bottom-six will pay huge dividends too. Rust's three-year average number for an 82-game point pace is 61 points, which sounds reasonable with a bit of a jump in ice time, shooting percentage, and the general luck metrics.

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A couple of Quick-hits from one of my other league-mates:

"What would a DeBrincat / Kane reunion look like in Detroit?"

I'm not sure a Patrick Kane and Detroit match makes a ton of sense, but if it does happen, then having them centred by speedster Dylan Larkin would be a lot of fun. Possibly all of them finishing in the 90-point range. It sounds like Kane is on track to be ready for sometime in the fall. The Red Wings are already loaded at forward though, so it would probably require a trade before Kane could realistically be brought in, and it would really hurt multiple players such as Daniel Sprong, David Perron, and Lucas Raymond.

"Can a healthy Demko with upgrades at D finally put a Vezina season together?"

Assuming Thatcher Demko can stay healthy, he could put together a solid season. I don't think the team in front of him is going to be able to support him quite enough for him to pass all of Ilya Sorokin, Jake Oettinger, Igor Shesterkin, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and others. He could finish as a top-five goalie, maybe even top three, but I don't see a version of the 2023-24 season where Demko wins the Vezina.

"Does MacKenzie Blackwood save his career in SJ?"

I am not a believer in Blackwood, and San Jose has the worst defence core in the entire league. Maybe including two-thirds of the AHL rosters. He is probably goalie #60 or later on my fantasy radar at this point.

"Who has the better fantasy roster — Ottawa or Buffalo? Compare them by F, D, G groups."

This coming year, I think Ottawa are going to be the better group of forwards. Lining up Stutzle vs Thompson, then Claude Giroux, Josh Norris, and Brady Tkachuk against Alex Tuch, Jeff Skinner, and Dylan Cozens is fairly even.

They're also deeper on defence, and they have three viable options that could be NHL starters this year instead of just the waivers-exempt Devon Levi for Buffalo. What Buffalo has going for them is Rasmus Dahlin, who Rick Roos talked about in last week's Goldipucks column. Dahlin is head-and-shoulders above anyone who Ottawa has on defence, and the trio of Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson, and Jakub Chychrun will all be leaching each other's opportunities.

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See you next Wednesday! You can find me on Twitter (I will continue to call it that) @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.