Be sure to head to the Dobber Shop to purchase your copy of the 2023-24 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide! It has projections, depth charts, prospect reviews, future outlooks, sleepers and busts, goalies to target, and a whole lot more. Because it's an online copy, it is updated whenever we get new information like injuries, trades, or rookies breaking camp. There is a little over a month until the league starts so now is the time to start brushing up on what you need to know to get ahead of your fantasy league mates.

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This week, my Ramblings have been spent going over my first run of point projections for forwards. The edition on Tuesday was looking at certain groups of players while yesterday's covered some players whose projection surprised me. Today we are going to look at players that look to be in line for big improvements or declines.

The usual caveats apply: this is just my first iteration of projections so things will change over the next five weeks, all starting players are assumed to play 82 games, and we are not separating left/right wings and centres. Not yet, at least. Data will be from Frozen Tools, Natural Stat Trick, or AllThreeZones, unless otherwise indicated.

Let's hope to it.

Aleksander Barkov (Last Year: 78 points in 68 games)

This might seem really high, given his career-best mark is 96 points in 2018-19 and that was his only 90-point season. At the same time, he paced for 108 points/82 games in 2021-22, so it isn't an absurd number.

My projections think Barkov is set to greatly improve on the 55 even-strength points he paced for last season; he finished with 46 in 68 games while these projections have him around 66 in 82 games. In 2022-23, Barkov managed a point on just 65.7% of Florida goals scored with him on the ice at even strength. His prior two seasons averaged 76.6% and if he had done that in 2022-23, he would have paced for 65 even-strength points. In other words, just being more involved in Florida's scoring – to rates in line with what he had done in recent seasons – should give him a big boost at even strength. If he can play a full season, he can threaten 100 points, though the health of the blue line could change things over the next month.

Jason Robertson

This projected point total would cut about 16 points from what he managed last season but it's nothing to do with him, really. It is kind of a death by 1000 cuts; a small pullback in his line's shooting percentage at even strength, a small decline in EVTOI per game because of Dallas's forward depth, a handful fewer points on the power play, and so on. Losing 3-4 points because of a few different reasons adds up to the projection given above.

I'll be honest here and say that if Robertson plays 82 games, I believe he'll post another 100-point season. Even if Joe Pavelski's age starts catching up with him, there are replacements like Matt Duchene and Wyatt Johnston ready to step in. Maybe Robertson ends up in the 98-104 range instead of nearly 110, but I really do feel this projection is underrating him. We will see where things stand when more adjustments are made.

Jeff Skinner

This is another drop that shocked me. Skinner is coming off an 82-point season so this would be a significant hit to his production. Over the last two seasons, Skinner's points/minute at even strength (3.01) is higher than Kirill Kaprizov (2.97) and Nikita Kucherov (2.95) so, yes, this is a shock.

Regression is the concern here. With Skinner on the ice at even strength last season, Buffalo shot 12.6%, by far the highest mark of his career (previous high was 10.7% in 2010-11). If that falls to just 11% – which would still be the second-highest mark of his career – it could cost him close to 10 points over a full season. Combine that with more minutes away from Tage Thompson, plus Skinner finally being on the wrong side of 30 years old, and the drop makes a bit more sense.

This is a projection where role matters a lot. If Skinner plays 80 games skating almost exclusively with Tage, a point-per-game season is on the table. If he plays 80 games skating only half his minutes with Tage, the production will suffer. A 64-point season wouldn't be surprising, but neither would a 94-point season.

Jonathan Huberdeau

Like a lot of people (I assume), these projections have Huberdeau in for a big rebound from the 55 points he managed last season. Considering the high-scoring nature of the league, it was probably his worst season in nine years and though he turned 30 years old in June, playmaking skills tend to age better than some others.

What the coaching staff does will dictate a lot. It is clear that Huberdeau did not thrive under Darryl Sutter's system, and he lost over 2:30 per game in his first season with Calgary. Just getting back into the 18- to 19-minute range means a lot for his projections. A rebound in his power play production helps a lot too, and those are the reasons why he should be back over 70 points.

Just how high the rebound gets is the question here. From 2018-2021, he managed 231 points in 206 games, or about 92 points per 82 games. Even excluding his massive 115-point year, he's shown potential for 90-plus points before. A lot would have to go right to get there, but even getting to the 70-point range would be a big return for him.

Alex Ovechkin

The long and short of it is that the projections don't think much of the Washington Capitals this season with age as the concern: Ovechkin turns 38 this month; Nicklas Backstrom is 36 in November and his ability to play 17 minutes a night for 80 games is very much in question; TJ Oshie turns 37 in December; Evgeny Kuznetsov is in his age-31 season and coming off a down year; Tom Wilson is 30 in March and power forwards with knee surgeries are always worrisome; John Carlson missed 42 games in 2022-23 and turns 34 in January; Max Pacioretty is still recovering from his Achilles problem and turns 35 in November. Every core piece will be at least 30 years old this season with many of them in the 35-plus range. They make Pittsburgh's core group look young.

Even with all that, this is a very low projection on the back of low even-strength production (a factor of the aging group). My concern is that I had similar qualms about last season's Boston team and injuries and, well, they made that prognostication look stupid. If this group can stay healthy and play as they did a few years ago, does Ovechkin get to a 50-goal, 90-point season? The answer to that question is likely the difference between a 70-point season and a 90-point season for the Washington captain.

Trevor Zegras

Like Huberdeau, Zegras's projection is all about his role on the team. Not that there is a question of him being the team's top centre, but rather whom he gets to play with. Last season, through New Year's, Zegras played about two-thirds of his even strength time with Troy Terry. After New Year's, that number cratered to around 22%. Terry missed a couple weeks but even with him in the lineup, it was under 30% in shared EVTOI.

Over the last two years, Anaheim scored about 19% more often when Zegras was on the ice with Terry than without him, and the only additions made up front are depth players/prospects and Alex Killorn. If new coach Greg Cronin keeps them apart, it'll help neither in the fantasy game.

If we can get some sort of confirmation early in training camp that Terry and Zegras will be on a line together, it would be a great sign for both their fantasy values, changing both their projections for the better. The difference could be a Travis Konecny-like point-per-game season or a Vincent Trocheck-like 65-point effort. Considering this projection isn’t far off his first two seasons, it tells me just how far Anaheim still has to go as a franchise.

Mark Stone

Of course, back injuries are the issue here. Stone has played just 80 games over the last two years and projecting him to play all 82 is a longshot. In fact, in his 11-year career, he's never played each of his team's games in a single season. This does give us a look into the upside Stone has if he can stay healthy and on the ice, though.

The big improvement in his projections come from the power play. That total is about 26 PPPs expected in 82 games this season, whereas he had just 15 in those previous 80 games. In the 2023 postseason, Vegas went to a heavily-used top PP unit and that led to Stone earning 3:31 a night in PPTOI. That was at 2:46 in the regular season, and he hasn't been over 3:00 of PPTOI per game in five straight seasons. The assumption in these projections is that the team stays with a heavy top PP unit, and that leads to Stone easily having the best PP production season of his career. However, there is a difference between 3:30 of PPTOI per night while playing 82 games, and 2:30 of PPTOI per night while playing 55 games. He is a risky fantasy option for a few reasons.

Taylor Hall

The funny thing about this projection is that it's without Connor Bedard in the lineup (first-year players haven't been added to my projections yet). It is also with Hall playing a little under 17 minutes a night. It isn't hard to imagine this projection jumping by 15-20 points once Bedard is added and if Hall skates 18-19 minutes a night.

I mentioned it once this offseason, but I'll mention it again: Hall got a bad rap in Boston. When not with David Pastrnak, he was often skating with third and fourth liners, and that did not do him any production favours. In his 900-plus minutes skating with Pastrnak at even strength, Hall put up 2.83 points/60 minutes. With anyone else on his line, that fell to 2.08/60 minutes. That is the difference between Mikko Rantanen-like production and Bryan Rust-like production. It is hard to say Bedard will be like Pastrnak, but over the last three years, Pasta averaged 49 goals every 82 games. The 2023-24 Dobber Guide has Bedard for 45 goals/82 games, so it's a lofty comparison, but it may not be entirely far off.

Looking at other early projections, it's clear I'm in the minority on Hall's outlook. I will also say that, like Zegras and Stone, there is a big difference between Hall playing 18 minutes a night largely with Bedard, and 16 minutes largely without him. Training camp will tell us a lot about how they intend to use him.

Shane Pinto

It was an uneven season for Pinto as he scored 8 goals in his first 13 games, and just 12 goals over his next 69 contests. Like many rookies, he went through adjustments and struggles, having months where he was over 17 minutes a night and months under 15 minutes a night. He wasn't the guy asked to do a lot of the transition work but had good playmaking stats (especially for a rookie). One issue was the team scored on just 7.1% of the shots taken with Pinto on the ice and among 166 forwards in the league with at least 1000 EV minutes in 2022-23, that ranked 163^rd. A lot of the problems were because he and Alex DeBrincat struggled to find chemistry and Ottawa's goal rate climbed a whopping 40% when Pinto was with anyone else other than DeBrincat.

Pinto's role is the question here. Josh Norris and Tim Stützle are, ostensibly, the top two centres with guys like Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux taking a lot of faceoffs. If Pinto is the third-line centre and skating secondary PP minutes, a 50-point season is his high. My belief, as is reflected in the projections, is he gets into the top six, but we'll have to see what the lineup looks like through the exhibition season.

Cole Perfetti

In my Ramblings on Tuesday, I mentioned that projections are not high on the Winnipeg Jets. The projections have Perfetti skating largely on the second PP unit all season with Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Gabriel Vilardi taking the top PP duties. It leaves Perfetti with roughly nine PP points projected for the upcoming season. If we get an indication that Perfetti will be on the top PP unit, it would likely more than double his PPP output. In other words, that power play role could be the difference between a 45-point season and a 60-point season.

Perfetti is a tremendous offensive talent, but Winnipeg struggled offensively for much of the season and if that doesn't change, plus secondary PPTOI, the points will suffer. If the team can gel on the attack, and Perfetti gets to the top power play quintet, he goes from an afterthought in many fantasy leagues to a guy to target at the end of drafts. Again, training camp will be illuminating on how they view the young offensive dynamo.