Ramblings: Blues Defence; Knies; Tolvanen; Tatar; Kovalenko & More (Sept 13)
Alexander MacLean
2023-09-13
We've had enough discussion about Yahoo and their positions over the last few weeks, and it looks to have settled into their usual spot before the majority of drafts, so we'll leave it there for now.
One thing I wanted to touch on, is that throughout the season I would like to try and put together a database and sort out all of our favourite public scouts to see who is the most reliable overall, who was highest on key risers, and who picked out the busts earlier than most. I'm hoping to have that all amalgamated to be useful for us to put together our 2024 draft lists. You can chime in on the forum here with some inputs and any scouts you may want me to add to the evaluation.
I thought I would run through a mock draft as well. I typically like to do the 14-team league ones (on Yahoo for the convenience) as there are usually some other drafters for a bit of variance, and the 14-team setup makes the remaining options a bit more realistic in comparison to who will be left in your 12-team league draft with better competition.
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All of the rookie of the year hype is (rightfully) centred around Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, and Logan Cooley. I would like to put forward that Matthew Knies should get some love as well. He may not win, but is a very fair bet to finish in the top five. He has the look and feel of a very dominant player, and with the linemates he is set to play alongside, the points will certainly come as well.
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This certainly opens the door for Scott Perunovich to be a sexy breakout pick, and it really dampens Torey Krug's rebound potential as he will be starting out behind the eight-ball.
Last year Krug and Justin Faulk ended the season nearly split on time spent with the top power play unit. Part of that was mainly due to Krug's injury though, not necessarily that Faulk was stealing the job away. Faulk's power play numbers were a bit of an offensive step down from Krug, but not hugely so. While Krug is out, Faulk may get the incumbent shot on the top power play, and could make a good streaming option to roster and then sell-high on in November.
I do think Perunovich is the better bet (with the higher ceiling too), but Faulk is a very safe player, with less injury risk, less demotion risk, and a much higher floor – especially in leagues with any kind of peripherals.
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In a similar vein to Krug's injury and who it opens up space for, let's talk about Florida.
From the link above, Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour could be returning anytime between Halloween and Christmas. That's a wide range, but it means we should get at least a month without either of them. That's enough time for someone else to settle in on the top power play unit, and ride it all season long – just like Montour did last season.
Gustav Forsling is the best bet, and put up a career-high 41 points last season. However, despite seeing a minute and a half of power play ice time per game, he only notched a total of five power play points. The majority of his scoring came at even strength, where he was used as an all-around first-pairing defender.
With that in mind, we turn to another option with the Panthers who will be easier to shelter, and who has some streaky power play success in the past. Yesterday's Gordle answer Mike Reilly may look like the fourth lefty on the depth chart right now, and thus an odd-man out, he might actually be a lock for an opening-day roster spot due to the absence of reliable fill-ins on the right side.
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Maybe ruining what would be my breakout pick for Seattle this year (the rest are coming next week), but Eeli Tolvanen is someone that I wanted to mention. He's a scorer that is approaching his breakout threshold, and there was all of Daniel Sprong's sheltered offensive zone and power play time that just got freed up on the right wing. For an over/under set at pacing for 57.5 points for the 24-year-old, I think I would be taking the over.
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Does Tomas Tatar signing in Colorado likely hurt Jonathan Drouin's chances? Personally, I don't think it has a huge impact. Drouin was always going to get an easy shot in the top-six, and he will either stick or he won't. If he doesn't, then it's down to the bottom-six with second-unit power play time for the rest of the year. Tatar becomes one of the names that can fill in for him in the top-six, but initially Tatar makes for a great third line addition alongside Miles Wood and Ross Colton.
It is a good landing spot for Tatar, as the exposure up the lineup would be a boon for him, but being able to not be the focal point also seems to serve him well in the regular season. He'll be a bargain in cap leagues this year at the $1.5 million price tag.
You can find Cliffy's take on it here.
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On the topic of the Avs, they also have another top-nine forward waiting in the wings, who is possibly coming over for the end of the year:
Nikolai Kovalenko has played four KHL games thus far, and has five points. If he can keep that up, then he will have put up a similar season as Andrei Kuzmenko did in his last KHL campaign, while two years younger than the Canucks' winger. If you have a deep bench or a minors slot to put him, then he will make an excellent stash.
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Mike Babcock appears to be in hot water again, though the statement from the Columbus Blue Jackets and Boone Jenner does seem to refute the original premise. I'm not sure what it all means or what fantasy impact this has at this point, but it does throw some uncertainty over the situation of some Blue Jackets players. Could Babcock be let go before the season or early on? Does this have an impact in causing a sour note in the dressing room? If so, what does that do to players getting into a rhythm and starting well?
Just one more reason not to reach for those Blue Jackets this year.
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In case you didn’t already believe it:
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I was more than halfway through the Ramblings before I remembered I promised breakout candidates for each team. I'll get to those for next week, because it deserves a bit more attention. Something to look forward to next week, along with us being nearly at the opening of training camp and rookie tournaments. On top of that I'll have the latest update for the salary cap rankings up on the 25th (skaters) and 26th (goalies) or September.
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See you next Wednesday! You can find me on Twitter (I will continue to call it that) @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.