Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

In case you missed it, Frozen Tools recently released a new AHL section. In addition to goals, assists, and points, the AHL Report Generator now allows users to sort players by Individual Points Percentage (IPP), Most Consistent, Per Game, 82GP Pace, Home/Away, and the top lines in the league at both even strength and on the power play.

While limited, this is a fantastic start in the direction of providing more statistical depth to AHL performance. The American league is not strictly speaking a "development" league; it is one of the best professional leagues in the world. As Hockey Prospecting creator, Byron Bader, pointed out recently, it can be very telling how quickly and smoothly players from junior leagues acclimate to the AHL.

Sometimes when a player turns pro in NA and plays in the AHL, they struggle to generate pts like they did in juniors, college or Europe. You'll hear it's not a big deal, it's their first year of pro, it's a learning year.

But it's a big deal that impacts their NHL future…

To…

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) September 14, 2023

To rehash Bader's observation, if a player coming out of junior sees their NHL equivalency (NHLe) drop by more than 20% in their first year of AHL action, their chance of eventually playing 200+ games in the NHL drops on average from about 67% to 34%. That is quite a significant fall!

It does not mean that struggling AHL rookies will never make the NHL, just that their likelihood of doing so drops considerably—along with their likelihood of becoming a Star player at the highest level.

Let's take one of my personal favourites, Adam Beckman (MIN), 22, as an example. He was a bit of a late-bloomer who saw a major performance jump in his Draft+1 year, when he scored over 100 points and posted a strong 42 NHLe to lead the WHL in scoring. He then took a step backwards after returning to the WHL in his D+2, and then another with his somewhat disappointing transition to the AHL (34 points in 68 games)—a 25% decline in his NHLe.

Beckman aged out of the model after the 2021-22 campaign but did see a slight improvement last year, posting 36 points in 53 games (including 24 goals and a ton of shots). So his point-per-game rate improved from 0.5 to 0.68 from Year 1 to Year 2. Now he seems poised to make the Wild in a depth role heading into 2023-24.

I am still hopeful that there is an Arthur Kaliyev-style player here who can take a crack at 30 goals and 2.5+ shots per game a few years from now. But his rocky transition to the AHL (statistically speaking) means his star potential is likely under 10% at this point—down from his peak of 35% when he was the WHL scoring champ.

The takeaway here is that if a high-performing junior player is putting up underwhelming numbers as an AHL rookie, that might be a great time to try and shop them. As Bader states, the prevailing wisdom suggests that they will figure it out: "They scored over 100 points last year!" And they might. But they also might not, and it might be more prudent to move them while they still have the halo of being a top scorer boosting their value.

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Sticking with the AHL, let's use Frozen Tools' AHL Report Generator to pick out some old-but-still-young players in the minors who are among the league leaders in Consistency and/or IPP. To me, these are the most telling stats available because it shows that their stat lines are not artificially boosted by a few prolific outbursts—they hit the scoresheet regularly and were consistently involved in goals their team scored while they were on the ice.

Emil Bemstrom (CBJ), 24

Matthew Phillips (WAS), 25

Alex Nylander (PIT), 25

Trey Fix-Wolansky (CBJ), 24

Scott Perunovich (STL), 25

Lucas Carlsson (FLA), 26

This group includes AHL players who have seen limited NHL action over the years but have not been able to establish themselves for whatever reason. These players are likely longshots to make and star in the NHL at this point, but their AHL accomplishments are still worthy of note.

Bemstrom (31 points in 21 games) led the AHL in consistency (minimum 20 games) by a wide margin in 2022-23, posting a 90.48% consistency rate that topped his nearest competitor by 13%. He is a fast straight-line skater with an above-average release and a goal-scorer's instincts. He scored an impressive 23 goals in 47 games in the SHL at age 20 but has bounced around between the AHL, NHL, and several European leagues in the years since.

The clock is ticking for the Swede to make an impact with the Blue Jackets, which has one of the most stacked prospect pools in the NHL. Bemstrom's high IPP (81.6%) shows that he was not only a consistent scorer but that the offence for Clevland flowed through him when he was on the ice. If he can carry a line that well in the minors, he may be able to translate that success to Columbus this year.

Emil Bemstrom goes upstairs and gets the @BlueJacketsNHL on the board. 🔝🧀 pic.twitter.com/bPlLzC9GHl

— NHL (@NHL) April 4, 2022

Time is also running out for Phillips (76 points in 66 games), who may see increased opportunity now that he has moved from the Flames to the Capitals. He was not as consistent as Bemstrom but still scored 71% of the time and with an even higher IPP (84.4%).

But looking waaaaay back to 2018-19, which was his D+3 campaign, Phillips saw a 28% decrease in his NHLe when he transitioned to the AHL as a high-scoring junior player who put up 112 points the year prior. That puts him firmly in Bader's Group B, which is a red flag in terms of his NHL likelihood—even though he posted 198 points over his next 199 AHL games and has clearly figured it out at that level. His rocky AHL transition on top of his very slight 5-7, 157 lbs frame might be enough to limit his NHL future.

Gotta see it ⬇️ Matthew Phillips scores his league-leading 7th GWG on the season 7 seconds into OT pic.twitter.com/b7xugpUEm6

— Paige Siewert (@thathockeygirly) January 19, 2023

The next two forwards also fall firmly into that Group B that struggled initially after leaving junior: Nylander saw a notable 38% decline in his equivalency, while Fix-Wolansky fell by 26%.

The younger Nylander brother had tons of momentum coming out of his draft year. He scored 12 points in six OHL playoff games and performed very well at several international tournaments. Perhaps additional time in junior would have been more conducive to his development, however, because he then struggled to hit his stride for three consecutive AHL campaigns. Then he stuck in the NHL for one year with Chicago (26 in 65) before missing the entire 2020-21 season and then ending up back in the AHL again.

Now with Pittsburgh, there are some signs for hope despite all the red flags. He scored 50 points in 55 AHL games last year and seems set to make the Penguins in a depth role. Don't hold your breath, though, even with his pedigree as a Nylander and former eighth-overall pick. The production is nice to see but it is arriving way too late.

Ditto for Fix-Wolansky, who has a similar frame to Phillips (5-7, 187 lbs) and took a couple years in the AHL to find his bearings after a high-scoring junior career. He needs to be in a top-six scoring role to have fantasy relevance, and the spots in Columbus are filling up quickly. His ship may have sailed.

On the back end, Perunovich and Carlsson do not fit Bader's requirements for the insights posted above but have the skill and opportunity to make an impact in 2023-24. Both have flirted with NHL action but have not yet been able to stick.

Perunovich has the higher pedigree and should be more than ready to contribute on the Blues' power play this year, especially with Torey Krug going down with an ankle injury sustained during off-season training. Carlsson, the AHL's second-leading scorer amongst defenders last year, has a similar opportunity to seize Florida's power play with both Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad set to miss the start of the year due to injuries.

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Tune in next week for the second-part of this AHL series, featuring younger players (aged 21-23), including Jakob Pelletier (CGY), Marco Rossi (MIN), Jordan Spence (LAK), Semyon Der-Arguchintsev (TOR), Alex Steeves (TOR), Georgi Merkulov (BOS), Tye Kartye (SEA), Vasily Podkolzin (VAN), and Philip Tomasino (NAS).

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Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.