Eastern Edge: Defence Tiers From Fox and Karlsson to Pesce and Sandin

Brennan Des

2023-09-26

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll divide some of the top Eastern Conference defensemen into tiers based on their fantasy hockey value. Keep in mind, there's a fair bit of subjectivity that goes into these tiers, so think of them more as a guide for your own thinking than rigid rankings that you should stick to. To see these tiers for defensemen in the Western Conference, check out Grant’s article over here.

Tier One

Erik Karlsson – Pittsburgh Penguins

He led all defensemen in scoring last year, posting 101 points. There was a 25-point gap between him and second-place Josh Morrissey/Quinn Hughes. I don't think I need to explain why Karlsson belongs in this tier. After seeing what he did with an underwhelming forward corps in San Jose, I'm excited to see him work with a more offensively gifted team in Pittsburgh.

Rasmus Dahlin – Buffalo Sabres

The first overall pick of the 2018 draft broke out with a 77-point pace last year. He provides significant contributions to a variety of categories, including shots, blocks, and power-play production. Although Owen Power is on the rise, Dahlin is still the top defenseman on a talented Sabres' team and will get the deployment needed to produce at a high rate again this year.

Adam Fox – New York Rangers

Over the past three seasons, Cale Makar is the only defenseman with more points than Adam Fox. The 25-year-old blueliner possesses elite individual talent, but it helps that he shares the ice with a lot of skilled forwards in New York. You can rely on him for strong production with the man advantage, a good plus/minus rating, and a decent number of blocks.

Dougie Hamilton – New Jersey Devils

The 30-year-old blueliner racked up 74 points last season. He reinforced his reputation as a high-volume shooter, leading all defenders in shots. As the top defenseman on a Devils team with a really strong forward corps, Hamilton should find the scoresheet often again this year. It'll be interesting to see if highly touted prospect Luke Hughes eats into any of Hamilton's offensive minutes.

Tier Two

Mikhail Sergachev – Tampa Bay Lightning

After years of Victor Hedman being the top defenseman in Tampa, we saw a changing of the guard commence last season, with Sergachev stealing some power-play time. Sergachev posted 64 points last year, a fair bit more than the 53 Hedman tallied. The contrast was even more stark on the power-play, where Sergachev's 27 points nearly doubled Hedman's 14. Sergachev may not be the clear-cut top defenseman in Tampa Bay just yet, but he seems to have cultivated a larger scoring role for himself. He now has the 60-point potential and power-play production to supplement already strong contributions to the hits and blocks categories.

Moritz Seider – Detroit Red Wings

He might not have the same offensive ceiling as other defensemen in this tier, but Seider is a force in multicategory leagues. Last year, he ranked in the top-25 for hits and top-5 for blocks. Although he wasn't scoring much early on, he found his offensive game in the second half, tallying 30 points in his final 45 games – a 55-point pace. The newly acquired Alex DeBrincat gives Detroit's offense a boost, which could help Seider post a few more points. It'll be worth monitoring if another one of Detroit's offseason acquisitions, offensive defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere, steals any scoring minutes from Seider this year.

Charlie McAvoy – Boston Bruins

Although he started last season late due to summer shoulder surgery, McAvoy managed an impressive 64-point pace. That level of offense, combined with a solid number of blocks and hits, makes him a great asset in fantasy leagues. I am slightly concerned that the departures of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci will have a negative effect on the Bruins this year, but I don't think McAvoy's outputs will be affected drastically.

John Carlson – Washington Capitals

The 33-year-old defenseman missed a big chunk of last season after taking a slapshot to the head. Fortunately, his health isn't in question as he returned from that injury following three months on the shelf and remarkably posted eight points in 10 games to close out the campaign. Prior to last season, Carlson had been reliable for a 70-point pace, with a good number of shots, blocks and power-play points. Some may be concerned that Rasmus Sandin will steal offensive opportunity from him this year, but I think Carlson's deployment will still be good enough to fuel the production required to be in this tier.

Tier Three

Victor Hedman – Tampa Bay Lightning

After hovering around a 70-point pace in recent years, Hedman paced for an underwhelming 53 points last season. The reduced output was a product of a reduced role on the power play. During his most productive years, Hedman saw 60-70% of Tampa's total time with the man advantage and tallied 0.35 to 0.45 power-play points per game. Last year, his share of PP time dropped to 50% and he registered just 0.18 PPP/game. It seems Sergachev is slowly taking over the role of top defenseman. I think Hedman will see enough opportunity to be a valuable asset this year, but Sergachev's emergence likely prevents Hedman from getting the high volume of opportunity that led to elite levels of production in the past.

Zach Werenski – Columbus Blue Jackets

Although he missed most of last season with a shoulder injury, we know Werenski is capable of solid offense based on previous years – most notably a 58-point pace in 21-22. It'll be interesting to see what he can do with Columbus' current forward corps, which seems to be invigorated by rookie sensation Adam Fantilli. Last year was Johnny Gaudreau's first in Columbus, and since Werenski was injured for most of it, we haven't really seen both players share the ice. Werenski has never really posted huge numbers on the power play, but I think this roster has the talent to ice a strong top unit. More production with the man advantage could lead Werenski to 60 points for the first time in his career. He doesn't hit very much, but should provide a decent number of blocks, and a good number of shots.

Kris Letang – Pittsburgh Penguins

Although there was initially concern that Erik Karlsson would bump Letang off Pittsburgh's top power-play, it sounds like both players will start the season on the first unit. Letang has scored above a 50-point pace in each of his last nine campaigns. He also racked up more hits than expected last year, posting 2.5 per game.

Noah Dobson – New York Islanders

As the most offensively gifted blueliner on the Islanders, Dobson should see plenty of scoring opportunities this year. If New York's forwards can show some more offensive creativity, I think Dobson could flirt with a 60-point pace. At just 23 years of age, he's now paced for 50 points in back-to-back seasons, posting a decent number of shots and blocks in the process.

Brent Burns – Carolina Hurricanes

Burns racked up 61 points last year and tallied 3.1 shots per game, benefitting from a prominent role on Carolina's top power play. That combination of factors should make him an asset again this year. However, he'll face more competition for offensive opportunity with DeAngelo and Orlov in the mix.

Tier Four

Brandon Montour – Florida Panthers

Would be in a higher tier if he was healthy to start the year. However, with offseason shoulder surgery expected to keep him out until mid-December, not only will Montour have fewer games to make an impact on your fantasy roster, but it's possible that someone steps up in his absence, preventing him from reclaiming the offensively focused role that led him to 73 points last season.

Morgan Rielly – Toronto Maple Leafs

Although Rielly will see some time on Toronto's top power-play unit this year, it'll be less than last year now that Klingberg is in the mix. Less time on that star-studded top unit will make it harder for him to reach last season's 52-point pace. To make matters worse, Rielly doesn't really have outstanding peripheral production to offset a downgrade in offensive output.

Thomas Chabot – Ottawa Senators

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With Jake Sanderson recently signing an eight-year extension, some speculate that Chabot has been dethroned as top defenseman in Ottawa. Although that outcome seems inevitable, I don't think it's guaranteed to happen this season. I expect the passing of the torch to be more gradual, in order to facilitate a smooth transition. Keep in mind Chabot is still on contract for five more years at an AAV of $8 million. He's still going to be a prominent part of this team in the short term. In recent years, Chabot has frequently flirted with a 50-point pace, benefitting from seeing over 60% of the team's total power-play time. If he can maintain similar deployment this year, there's an argument he belongs in tier three, but I think internal competition results in worse deployment for Chabot, so I'm placing him in tier four.

Mike Matheson – Montreal Canadiens

Since he was sidelined by injuries for much of last season, many will miss the fact that Matheson scored at a 58-point pace. He's the top defenseman on a young Canadiens' team that has a fair bit of offensive firepower, headlined by Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and Kirby Dach.

Jacob Trouba – New York Rangers

He won't post huge offensive numbers but provides an elite combination of hits, blocks and shots that makes him a great asset in multicategory leagues. Among the league's blueliners, Trouba ranked 4th in blocks and 6th in hits last season.

Jakob Chychrun – Ottawa Senators

I think Sanderson and Chabot are ahead of him in line for power-play minutes, which limits his offensive potential. However, a strong track record of shots and blocks makes him a valuable fantasy asset.

Dmitry Orlov – Carolina Hurricanes

Orlov should see decent deployment this year considering he's Carolina's highest paid defender. However, I expect Burns and DeAngelo are ahead of him in line for offensive minutes, which limits his point ceiling. Fortunately, Orlov's strong track record of hits means he'll contribute to your fantasy roster even when he's not scoring.

K'Andre Miller – New York Rangers

The young defenseman quietly had a strong third season in the NHL. Through 79 games, he posted 43 points, 162 hits and 105 blocks.

Jake Sanderson – Ottawa Senators

A strong rookie campaign from Sanderson has Sens fans clamouring for him to quarterback the team's top power-play unit instead of Thomas Chabot. While we'll probably see that happen at some point in the future, I don't think it'll happen immediately this season. I thought about putting him in tier five, but I think that disrespects his offensive potential, while also diminishing the fact that he ranked 25th in blocked shots last year.

John Klingberg – Toronto Maple Leafs

The 31-year-old defenseman has started training camp on Toronto's top power play. If he can hold that spot all year, he probably belongs in Tier Three. If he loses that spot early on, he could drop to a lower tier. My gut tells me he has the offensive ability to do well with that top group, and I think he'll stick around for sustained stretches, but I don't think he stays there all season. That's why I'm putting him in Tier Four. The Leafs know Rielly works well on the first unit, and we often see teams defaulting to proven methods when they start to struggle. 

Hampus Lindholm – Boston Bruins

Although Lindholm posted a career-high 54-point pace last year, most of his offense came early on. He enjoyed an increased scoring role while McAvoy was out recovering from shoulder surgery. It's hard to see him replicating that level of offense this year, but he's trusted in Boston and should get enough deployment to post decent peripherals.

Tony DeAngelo – Carolina Hurricanes

DeAngelo's value is hard to pinpoint because it's dependent on what kind of role he sees on Carolina's power play. The start of training camp has seen him on the top unit, part of a rare two-defenseman setup with Brent Burns. If DeAngelo can hold that spot all season, he could provide tier-three value. However, being a one-dimensional offensive defenseman on a cheap contract, he could be cast aside quickly if things aren't working.

Tier Five

Gustav Forsling – Florida Panthers

At first glance, Forsling doesn't seem like an exciting fantasy asset. He's a 40-point defenseman who can put up a decent number of shots but doesn't really rack up hits and blocks. However, with Montour and Ekblad sidelined to start the campaign, an increased role could lead to increased contributions from Forsling early on.

Owen Power – Buffalo Sabres

There's no denying that the first overall pick from the 2021 draft is talented and has a bright future ahead of him. However, he remains behind Dahlin on the depth chart and won't get the deployment needed to post huge offensive numbers this season. A lack of peripheral production prevents me from placing him in a higher tier.

Luke Hughes – New Jersey Devils

He is similar to Power in the sense that he's young, supremely talented, and will benefit from exposure to a lot of talented forwards. However, being behind Hamilton on the depth chart likely limits Hughes' offensive ceiling for the upcoming campaign.

Cam York – Philadelphia Flyers

The 22-year-old defenseman should step up as the Flyers' top power-play defenseman this year. The issue is, Philly's roster doesn't exactly feature an abundance of offensive talent, which limits York's offensive ceiling. I think he can flirt with a 40-point pace this year, but it's hard to put him in a higher tier as I don't expect super strong peripherals.

Tier Six

As Grant established, this tier includes defenders who might average 30-40 points with underwhelming peripherals, or good peripherals with 20-25 points.

Aaron Ekblad, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Shayne Gostisbehere, Kaiden Guhle, Ryan Graves, Adam Pelech, Brett Pesce, Jeff Petry, Ivan ProvorovRyan Pulock, Rasmus Ristolainen, Rasmus Sandin, Travis Sanheim, Damon Severson, Kevin Shattenkirk, Brady Sjkei, Jaccob Slavin,

One Comment

  1. sheepdogged 2023-09-28 at 08:48

    I think Hedman should be listed in Tier Two with Sergachev. He’s been on a number of long runs the last few seasons and it caught up to him last year. A longer offseason will help him this upcoming year and it may help the entire Tampa Bay team, overall.

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