Cap League Goalie Rankings – September 2023

Alexander MacLean

2023-09-26

There really does feel like there is a top-tier of 5-6 goalies in the NHL right now. The issue is finding someone who agrees exactly with your list. Injury and workload concerns have snuck up with Andrei Vasilevskiy, Linus Ullmark has plenty of doubters and a smaller workload, while Connor Hellebuyck alternates up and down seasons, and is due for a poorer showing. Are any of them in your top-five? They aren't in mine, cap league or no (though Vas is sixth).

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For cap leagues specifically, Vitek Vanecek and Frederik Andersen step up closer to the top-tier, while the middle tiers seem to be filled with younger goalies on earlier contracts – because really that's where the value is. A few of the RFA contracts that we saw for Jeremy Swayman, Ilya Samsonov, and Filip Gustavsson all look like big bargains this year.

Getting really young, Devon Levi, and Dustin Wolf have jumped into the top-20. Neither is really assured of any volume this year, as there are two NHL contracts above each of them. They could finish the season much higher if they get any kind of real volume on their rookie deals, or they could end up in the AHL and steadily slip down as the year goes on.

Overall, with how variable goalies tend to be, I tend to lean to the cheaper ones because if they flop then there's less invested. Good luck with them!

Standard pre-rankings note:

Cap hit is used for the player cost, so if your league uses salary or AAV, please account for that, as it can greatly change the impact of entry-level deals. The rankings are set up so as to provide the most value in the current season, while providing some value in future years, based on modeling for predicted salary increases and production growth.

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The stats used for the goaltenders attempt to balance both ratio stats as well as volume. For those of you with variations towards either end of the spectrum, leaning more towards volume or rate stats, you will want to account for that change in value. Same thing goes for setting variations such as: number of teams, salary space, or roster positions. This list is made to be a baseline guide for player evaluation, and to promote discussion and understanding of how to optimize rosters in a cap league setting.

The goalie list comes not only with a value system, but with value tiers. The tiers (also computed by a formula of mine) represent a more general view on a goalie's value taking into account a few overarching factors. Cheap backups can have higher ratings but show up lower down the tier rankings. The high ranking is due to their low cap hits coupled with an established floor with some possible upside. The lower tier is a result of them having uncertain volume, and the lower likelihood of hitting their upside in any given year. In general, aim to have the highest rated players if you are looking to be most cap efficient, but use the tiers if you just want to focus on having the best goalies and you are comfortable paying a little more for that security (my preference is usually to lean towards the more cap efficient options because of how variable goalies can be).

If you note a mistake, or have any further questions about the ranking system, please let me know. You can find me on Twitter here @alexdmaclean.

Comments help with optimizing the values, because they're not perfect and they never will be.

We're sticking with the +/- 5.0 rating that Dobber uses on all of his rating schemes as the range for approximately equivalent value. The skater and goalie rankings are synched so that the value of a skater against a goalie can be compared, though the scale of the ratings has changed a little since the last update.

RankNameAgeCap HitYrsValueTierPrev Rnk
1Alexandar Georgiev27$3,400,0002214.7811
2Ilya Sorokin28$4,000,0001185.0714
3Igor Shesterkin27$5,666,6672184.9912
4Vitek Vanecek27$3,400,0002179.6615
5Frederik Andersen33$3,400,0002175.43112
6Jake Oettinger24$4,000,0002174.7316
7Linus Ullmark30$5,000,0002174.4913
8Connor Hellebuyck30$6,166,6661154.1417
9Juuse Saros28$5,000,0002163.55210
10Stuart Skinner24$2,600,0003162.89211
11Andrei Vasilevskiy29$9,500,0005139.2128
12Jeremy Swayman24$3,475,0001131.75218
13Logan Thompson26$766,6672209.2539
14Karel Vejmelka27$2,725,0002138.24314
15Ilya Samsonov26$3,550,0001136.85316
16Filip Gustavsson25$3,750,0003123.77313
17Adin Hill27$4,900,0002119.97338
18Devon Levi21$925,0002113.33319
19Dustin Wolf22$814,166194.98320
20Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen24$837,5001155.93422
21Akira Schmid23$850,8331137.84431
22Ville Husso28$4,750,0002132.41415
23Tristan Jarry28$5,375,0005132.36424
24Scott Wedgewood31$1,000,0001131.18427
25Antti Raanta34$1,500,0001129.60443
26Joseph Woll25$766,6672129.39441
27Sam Montembeault26$1,000,0001128.42432
28Pheonix Copley31$1,500,0001128.26430
29Darcy Kuemper33$5,250,0004126.55426
30Carter Hart25$3,979,0001125.70417
31Casey DeSmith32$1,800,0001124.40428
32Jacob Markstrom33$6,000,0003122.75425
33Thatcher Demko27$5,000,0003119.99436
34Philipp Grubauer31$5,900,0004117.72435
35Petr Mrazek31$3,800,0001111.31437
36Jordan Binnington30$6,000,0004108.65423
37Joonas Korpisalo29$5,000,0005107.73444
38Jack Campbell31$5,000,0004102.95421
39Elvis Merzlikins29$5,400,000497.29460
40Jake Allen33$3,850,000296.62433
41David Rittich31$900,000193.90448
42John Gibson30$6,400,000489.01439
43Spencer Knight22$4,500,000380.39440
44Pyotr Kochetkov24$2,000,000474.32456
45Ivan Prosvetov24$775,000171.23462
46Yaroslav Askarov21$925,000268.294NR
47Joel Hofer23$775,0002152.23559
48Cam Talbot36$1,000,0001144.325NR
49Charlie Lindgren29$1,100,0002132.45542
50Jonathan Quick37$825,0001123.955NR
51Eric Comrie28$1,800,0001114.885NR
52Kaapo Kahkonen27$2,750,0001112.765NR
53Laurent Brossoit30$1,750,0001105.71549
54Anton Forsberg30$2,750,0002104.95546
55Connor Ingram26$1,950,000399.75550
56Marc-Andre Fleury38$3,500,000192.69547
57Mads Sogaard22$925,000191.80551
58Semyon Varlamov35$2,750,000490.15552
59Sergei Bobrovsky35$10,000,000389.12554
60Dan Vladar26$2,200,000286.86557
61Martin Jones33$875,000185.99529
62Lukas Dostal23$812,500268.505NR

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