Cap League Goalie Rankings – September 2023
Alexander MacLean
2023-09-26
There really does feel like there is a top-tier of 5-6 goalies in the NHL right now. The issue is finding someone who agrees exactly with your list. Injury and workload concerns have snuck up with Andrei Vasilevskiy, Linus Ullmark has plenty of doubters and a smaller workload, while Connor Hellebuyck alternates up and down seasons, and is due for a poorer showing. Are any of them in your top-five? They aren't in mine, cap league or no (though Vas is sixth).
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For cap leagues specifically, Vitek Vanecek and Frederik Andersen step up closer to the top-tier, while the middle tiers seem to be filled with younger goalies on earlier contracts – because really that's where the value is. A few of the RFA contracts that we saw for Jeremy Swayman, Ilya Samsonov, and Filip Gustavsson all look like big bargains this year.
Getting really young, Devon Levi, and Dustin Wolf have jumped into the top-20. Neither is really assured of any volume this year, as there are two NHL contracts above each of them. They could finish the season much higher if they get any kind of real volume on their rookie deals, or they could end up in the AHL and steadily slip down as the year goes on.
Overall, with how variable goalies tend to be, I tend to lean to the cheaper ones because if they flop then there's less invested. Good luck with them!
Standard pre-rankings note:
Cap hit is used for the player cost, so if your league uses salary or AAV, please account for that, as it can greatly change the impact of entry-level deals. The rankings are set up so as to provide the most value in the current season, while providing some value in future years, based on modeling for predicted salary increases and production growth.
The stats used for the goaltenders attempt to balance both ratio stats as well as volume. For those of you with variations towards either end of the spectrum, leaning more towards volume or rate stats, you will want to account for that change in value. Same thing goes for setting variations such as: number of teams, salary space, or roster positions. This list is made to be a baseline guide for player evaluation, and to promote discussion and understanding of how to optimize rosters in a cap league setting.
The goalie list comes not only with a value system, but with value tiers. The tiers (also computed by a formula of mine) represent a more general view on a goalie's value taking into account a few overarching factors. Cheap backups can have higher ratings but show up lower down the tier rankings. The high ranking is due to their low cap hits coupled with an established floor with some possible upside. The lower tier is a result of them having uncertain volume, and the lower likelihood of hitting their upside in any given year. In general, aim to have the highest rated players if you are looking to be most cap efficient, but use the tiers if you just want to focus on having the best goalies and you are comfortable paying a little more for that security (my preference is usually to lean towards the more cap efficient options because of how variable goalies can be).
If you note a mistake, or have any further questions about the ranking system, please let me know. You can find me on Twitter here @alexdmaclean.
Comments help with optimizing the values, because they're not perfect and they never will be.
We're sticking with the +/- 5.0 rating that Dobber uses on all of his rating schemes as the range for approximately equivalent value. The skater and goalie rankings are synched so that the value of a skater against a goalie can be compared, though the scale of the ratings has changed a little since the last update.
Rank | Name | Age | Cap Hit | Yrs | Value | Tier | Prev Rnk |
1 | Alexandar Georgiev | 27 | $3,400,000 | 2 | 214.78 | 1 | 1 |
2 | Ilya Sorokin | 28 | $4,000,000 | 1 | 185.07 | 1 | 4 |
3 | Igor Shesterkin | 27 | $5,666,667 | 2 | 184.99 | 1 | 2 |
4 | Vitek Vanecek | 27 | $3,400,000 | 2 | 179.66 | 1 | 5 |
5 | Frederik Andersen | 33 | $3,400,000 | 2 | 175.43 | 1 | 12 |
6 | Jake Oettinger | 24 | $4,000,000 | 2 | 174.73 | 1 | 6 |
7 | Linus Ullmark | 30 | $5,000,000 | 2 | 174.49 | 1 | 3 |
8 | Connor Hellebuyck | 30 | $6,166,666 | 1 | 154.14 | 1 | 7 |
9 | Juuse Saros | 28 | $5,000,000 | 2 | 163.55 | 2 | 10 |
10 | Stuart Skinner | 24 | $2,600,000 | 3 | 162.89 | 2 | 11 |
11 | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 29 | $9,500,000 | 5 | 139.21 | 2 | 8 |
12 | Jeremy Swayman | 24 | $3,475,000 | 1 | 131.75 | 2 | 18 |
13 | Logan Thompson | 26 | $766,667 | 2 | 209.25 | 3 | 9 |
14 | Karel Vejmelka | 27 | $2,725,000 | 2 | 138.24 | 3 | 14 |
15 | Ilya Samsonov | 26 | $3,550,000 | 1 | 136.85 | 3 | 16 |
16 | Filip Gustavsson | 25 | $3,750,000 | 3 | 123.77 | 3 | 13 |
17 | Adin Hill | 27 | $4,900,000 | 2 | 119.97 | 3 | 38 |
18 | Devon Levi | 21 | $925,000 | 2 | 113.33 | 3 | 19 |
19 | Dustin Wolf | 22 | $814,166 | 1 | 94.98 | 3 | 20 |
20 | Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 24 | $837,500 | 1 | 155.93 | 4 | 22 |
21 | Akira Schmid | 23 | $850,833 | 1 | 137.84 | 4 | 31 |
22 | Ville Husso | 28 | $4,750,000 | 2 | 132.41 | 4 | 15 |
23 | Tristan Jarry | 28 | $5,375,000 | 5 | 132.36 | 4 | 24 |
24 | Scott Wedgewood | 31 | $1,000,000 | 1 | 131.18 | 4 | 27 |
25 | Antti Raanta | 34 | $1,500,000 | 1 | 129.60 | 4 | 43 |
26 | Joseph Woll | 25 | $766,667 | 2 | 129.39 | 4 | 41 |
27 | Sam Montembeault | 26 | $1,000,000 | 1 | 128.42 | 4 | 32 |
28 | Pheonix Copley | 31 | $1,500,000 | 1 | 128.26 | 4 | 30 |
29 | Darcy Kuemper | 33 | $5,250,000 | 4 | 126.55 | 4 | 26 |
30 | Carter Hart | 25 | $3,979,000 | 1 | 125.70 | 4 | 17 |
31 | Casey DeSmith | 32 | $1,800,000 | 1 | 124.40 | 4 | 28 |
32 | Jacob Markstrom | 33 | $6,000,000 | 3 | 122.75 | 4 | 25 |
33 | Thatcher Demko | 27 | $5,000,000 | 3 | 119.99 | 4 | 36 |
34 | Philipp Grubauer | 31 | $5,900,000 | 4 | 117.72 | 4 | 35 |
35 | Petr Mrazek | 31 | $3,800,000 | 1 | 111.31 | 4 | 37 |
36 | Jordan Binnington | 30 | $6,000,000 | 4 | 108.65 | 4 | 23 |
37 | Joonas Korpisalo | 29 | $5,000,000 | 5 | 107.73 | 4 | 44 |
38 | Jack Campbell | 31 | $5,000,000 | 4 | 102.95 | 4 | 21 |
39 | Elvis Merzlikins | 29 | $5,400,000 | 4 | 97.29 | 4 | 60 |
40 | Jake Allen | 33 | $3,850,000 | 2 | 96.62 | 4 | 33 |
41 | David Rittich | 31 | $900,000 | 1 | 93.90 | 4 | 48 |
42 | John Gibson | 30 | $6,400,000 | 4 | 89.01 | 4 | 39 |
43 | Spencer Knight | 22 | $4,500,000 | 3 | 80.39 | 4 | 40 |
44 | Pyotr Kochetkov | 24 | $2,000,000 | 4 | 74.32 | 4 | 56 |
45 | Ivan Prosvetov | 24 | $775,000 | 1 | 71.23 | 4 | 62 |
46 | Yaroslav Askarov | 21 | $925,000 | 2 | 68.29 | 4 | NR |
47 | Joel Hofer | 23 | $775,000 | 2 | 152.23 | 5 | 59 |
48 | Cam Talbot | 36 | $1,000,000 | 1 | 144.32 | 5 | NR |
49 | Charlie Lindgren | 29 | $1,100,000 | 2 | 132.45 | 5 | 42 |
50 | Jonathan Quick | 37 | $825,000 | 1 | 123.95 | 5 | NR |
51 | Eric Comrie | 28 | $1,800,000 | 1 | 114.88 | 5 | NR |
52 | Kaapo Kahkonen | 27 | $2,750,000 | 1 | 112.76 | 5 | NR |
53 | Laurent Brossoit | 30 | $1,750,000 | 1 | 105.71 | 5 | 49 |
54 | Anton Forsberg | 30 | $2,750,000 | 2 | 104.95 | 5 | 46 |
55 | Connor Ingram | 26 | $1,950,000 | 3 | 99.75 | 5 | 50 |
56 | Marc-Andre Fleury | 38 | $3,500,000 | 1 | 92.69 | 5 | 47 |
57 | Mads Sogaard | 22 | $925,000 | 1 | 91.80 | 5 | 51 |
58 | Semyon Varlamov | 35 | $2,750,000 | 4 | 90.15 | 5 | 52 |
59 | Sergei Bobrovsky | 35 | $10,000,000 | 3 | 89.12 | 5 | 54 |
60 | Dan Vladar | 26 | $2,200,000 | 2 | 86.86 | 5 | 57 |
61 | Martin Jones | 33 | $875,000 | 1 | 85.99 | 5 | 29 |
62 | Lukas Dostal | 23 | $812,500 | 2 | 68.50 | 5 | NR |