Today over here at Frozen Tools Forensics we are going to be taking a look at some recent changes in draft positions. Given we are well into the drafting season we have some data already as to where players are going and I wanted to use this opportunity to compare that data to average draft positions from 2022-23 and see which players are moving up in the world and who is falling behind.

The data below is compiled (averaged) from ESPN, Yahoo, and Fantrax ADPs and is pulled from both the 2022-23 and to date from the 2023-24 seasons. First up we have our list of players who have moved up in drafts the most. The negative value meaning their ADP number got smaller (so were taken earlier in 2023 than in 2022).

Naturally we have a list of 2023 breakouts. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nico Hischier, Erik Karlsson, Brandon Montour, and Josh Morrissey all had unexpectedly big seasons, were great value in most drafts in 2022-23 and are now being drafted closer to the value they provided in 2022-23.

I have to pause a moment to talk about the Buffalo top line though. Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch are top two on this list, but Jeff Skinner is not far behind. They are not only the only linemates in the top ten, but the only players from the same team represented here. Clearly managers think this line is for real and are willing to draft every member of the line accordingly. I don't recall bigger rags to riches story in recent NHL history. At the center of course is Tage Thompson who goes from undrafted in 2021-22 to drafted in the top 15 overall two seasons later. That glow up is pretty unprecedented for a guy who had been in the NHL for three seasons prior. For Tuch and Skinner, this is still something of a coming out party for guys we have been waiting on for several years to fulfill their potential. They are certainly being drafted like managers are expecting big things to continue.

On the flip side we have a number of players who are falling off the face of the earth.

There are a lot of goalies on this list and it isn't really that surprising. Both Jack Campbell and Jacob Markstrom imploded in 2022-23 so it shouldn't come as a shock that their ADPs have taken a big hit. For Markstrom at least though he still managed to maintain the starters gig and if the ship rights itself at least a little in Calgary he might flip all the way to a value add here with how late he is going.

Injuries keep on hampering Max Pacioretty so it isn't a surprise to see him drop, and something similar can be said for Patrick Kane, though I might put him in a slightly more similar boat to Jonathan Huberdeau (ranked just off this list). Both had very excellent 2021-22 seasons and absolutely crashed down to earth in 2022-23. Both had some potentially extenuating circumstances (Kane with an injury, and Huberdeau with a new team and difficult coaching situation) to add to some bad variance bringing them down. Both could be in line for some kind of bounceback in 23-24 but folks are clearly very cautious. During the season I was a little more optimistic for Kane, but without a lot of injury clarity, plus the fact that is still unsigned makes him a bit of a risk at this point.

Our next category is players who were drafted in 2022-23, but did not get drafted in 2023-24

For the most part this list is backup or injured goalies, and if we go a little further down it turns into mostly depth D. Not a lot of really strong storylines here. To get some actual players to talk about I then filtered to look only at forwards.

Shane Wright makes a bit of sense as there was some hope for him walking onto the Kraken post draft, but until he actually makes a splash folks seem to be content being patient. Peyton Krebs is an interesting name, if only because he is essentially the only Buffalo player not being taken a bit higher than in 2022-23 if that tells you anything about the consensus view on his prognosis for the 2023-24 season.

I wanted to briefly touch on Mason Marchment. There wasn't much cause to write about him in 2022-23 after his dramatic 2021-22 season with Florida. Going into 2022-23 there was some hope he might repeat his strong scoring and peripheral numbers and for the first maybe two weeks of the season he seemed like he might be delivering, but the production quickly dried up. He put up reasonably similar shot and hit rates and actually saw a slight increase in total time on ice and power-play time, but only managed a 37-point pace. A far cry from his 27 goal and 71-point pace from 2021-22. Expectations have clearly readjusted.

And lastly, we have the highest drafted players in 2023-24 who were not drafted in 2022-23 (and no it isn't all rookies).

Yup there he is Connor Bedard, the highest drafted player in 2023-24 who wasn't drafted in 2022-23. Makes complete sense not much else to say here.

Travis Konecny and Martin Necas I want to put in sort of the same bucket as a few others above in that they are names that have been around for at least for a couple of years and have even been worth owning at times, but certainly took another step in 22-23. Brandon Hagel is a bit more prospective. He has typically been in a third line role, but with the off-season shakeups in Tampa he seems to be getting some prime deployment. People have clearly noticed and expectations have increased.

That leaves us again in Buffalo. Catching onto a theme here? Dylan Cozens spent a chunk of the season on the top power-play with the aforementioned Thompson, Tuch, and Skinner (with a breakout from Rasmus Dahlin – who also just missed the cut off above). There isn't really much to suggest that that deployment is going to change which certainly justifies the increased interest in Cozens. I think the moral of this story is that people seemed pretty hyped to get their hands on that Buffalo power play. So if you were hoping for some late round value from some maybe underappreciated skaters you are going to have to look elsewhere because the cat is clearly out of the bag on this one.

That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

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