One of my favorite things to do each preseason is to try to figure out which players have a shot of reaching 70 points for the first time in their careers. 

Some of these players may be obvious choices, some may be sleepers and some may be complete long shots, but in points-only leagues, finding these players can go a long way to helping you win a championship. It’s easy to project Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Jason Robertson will reach 70 points, but grabbing those guys who have never reached that mark takes a little more thinking. 

One thing I first started noticing years ago is that no matter how many 70-point players there are each season, without fail, at least one-third of them are hitting that mark for the first time. Case in point, last year, 60 players notched at least 70 points, with 24 of them (40 percent) hitting that mark for the first time. 

As usual, the list of first-timers covers the gamut of players: The rookie (Andrei Kuzmenko), the player in his 30s (Brock Nelson), the power forward (Brady Tkachuk), the guy-completely-destroyed-a-previous-high (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins), the teammates-accomplishing-it-in-the-same-season (Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch), the it-was-just-a-matter-of-time guy (Tim Stutzle and Jack Hughes), the guy-we-never-thought-would-get-there (Jeff Skinner and Tyler Toffoli), the guy-who-got-there-because-he-played-with-elite-linemates (Zach Hyman), the guy-we-never-heard-of-until-three-seasons-ago (Carter Verhaeghe) and so on. 

Last week, we focused on the Top 10 potential first-time 70-point defensemen. This week, we’re going to focus on the forwards.

As there is usually one player who takes us completely by surprise, I decided to go with one out-of-the-blue long shot as well.

10. Jonathan Drouin

This is one of the longest shots one can imagine, and so many things need to go right for him to have a shot at 70. He’s starting preseason on the top line with former juniors teammate Nathan MacKinnon, but he needs to immediately produce and stay on that top line for the year to have a shot. He needs to stay in the lineup for 75-plus games, something he hasn’t done since 2018-19. He needs to tremendously improve his shooting percentage (a year ago, he, Parker Kelly and Jack Drury were the only three forwards to have at least 50 shots and a shooting percentage below three percent). He needs to be a consistent power-play producer. This season will be his best chance to be a productive NHL player since he left Tampa Bay. If everything goes exactly right, then he has a long shot at 70 points. 

9. Mason McTavish

If Trevor Zegras was signed and in training camp, I’d lean towards him here. But word is Zegras and the Ducks aren’t close on a contract, which could open up the floor for McTavish to flourish offensively. According to Natural Stat Trick, last year, his most frequent linemates were Max Jones, Troy Terry, Brett Leason and Frank Vatrano. Even if Zegras was in the lineup, McTavish’s linemates should be better this year as he moves away from the third line and into a top-six role. Anaheim doesn’t have a lot of offensive players, so expect the team to lean heavily on McTavish. 

8. Kaapo Kakko

It seems all but assured that Kakko will go into the season as one of the top-two right wingers on the team. On which line is another question, but praise for Kakko has been high from new coach Peter Laviolette. He’s also being tried as the net-front presence on the power play, although it will be the second unit. To reach 70, Kakko would almost have to double his previous high of 40 points from last year, but he’s now in his full 200-game breakout threshold season. A massive breakout season seems on the horizon, and whether it can reach 70 points remains to be seen.

7. Pierre-Luc Dubois

Dubois might have reached the 70-point mark last year if he stayed healthy, as 63 points in 73 games equate to a 71-point pace. Those nine missed games were a blip on the radar, as he typically doesn’t miss any games with injury. The only other instance he missed a significant chunk of games was in 2020-21. There has to be some concern about his effort level (fans in two cities have complained about it), and now he has a long-term, big-money deal in L.A. The biggest concern now is where he lines up with the Kings. Can he get enough power-play time to match the 23 man-advantage points he had a year ago? 

6. Chandler Stephenson

Stephensen is probably the most under-loved player in fantasy hockey. He’s come close to the 70-point mark (finishing with 65 and 64 points in each of the last two seasons), and this could be the year he gets over that hump. He’s coming off a great postseason where he had 20 points, he plays on the second line with Mark Stone, and on the top power-play unit. Maybe the thing holding him back the most is his lack of shots, where his career high is 1.6 shots per game. A few more goals, or a few more power-play points, and he should hit 70 points. 

5. Andrei Svechnikov

Many fans can file this one under the “huh, I thought he already reached 70 points” group, but injuries have robbed him of that mark. The closest he has reached is 69 points in 2021-22, but he has put up a 70-point pace in three of the last four years. He needs to stay healthy. Unfortunately, based on his last few years, his 82-game pace means he needs to play all 82 games to reach 70 points. He has everything else you want in a candidate: a top-six player, top power-play unit, lots of shots and a healthy shooting percentage.

4. Tyler Bertuzzi

I’ve been hyping Bertuzzi a lot this offseason, but I fully believe he will crack the 70-point barrier. He signed a one-year, prove-it contract, which sometimes works but not always (John Klingberg). He’s on the top line in Toronto with Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner. We know he can produce when given the opportunity (62 points in 68 games in Detroit in 2021-22, 16 in 22 with Boston last year and 10 in seven in the postseason). Dobber has him pegged for 65 points. I find it surprising that most other predictions I have seen have Bertuzzi between 50 to 55 points, while a few have been below 50. His health is always a concern, so that is part of the reason for low numbers, but he might be able to reach that mark even if he misses five to 10 games. 

3. Nick Suzuki

Suzuki has been on the cusp for a while, with two straight seasons of a minimum 60-point pace. However, the issue with Suzuki is that his top teammates are often spending time on the IR. His most frequent linemates in the first half of last year were Kirby Dach, Sean Monahan and Cole Caufield. Those three missed a combined 117 games the rest of the season. For the last half of the campaign, Jesse Ylonen, Rafael Harvey-Pinard, Mike Hoffman and Joel Armia were his most common linemates. Suzuki still finished with 24 points in his last 27 games even without higher-quality linemates. Suzuki hasn’t missed a game since 2019-20, averages more than 21 minutes per night and is on the top power-play unit. If the Habs can stay healthy, then Suzuki should make that mark. 

2. Adrian Kempe

Kempe is one of those few players who has seen a steady progression for four straight seasons, culminating in 66 points last year. Kempe should be a popular 70-point pick this year. He notched 41 goals last year, thanks to a career-high shooting percentage of 16.4 percent. He averages at least three shots per game and is on the top line and the top power-play unit. He’s also been fairly healthy in his career, missing only four games in 2021-22, which was a career high. 

1. Drake Batherson

Last year saw two Sens players (Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle) reach the 70-point mark for the first time, and now it’s Batherson’s turn. Two years ago, Batherson put up a 78-point pace, but injuries limited him to 46 games. Last year he suited up for all 82 games and took a career-high three shots per contest, but his shooting percentage dropped to a career low of 8.8 percent (the previous two years, he shot 15.5 and 15.3 percent). That helped limit him to 62 points. He’s a fixture on the top power-play unit, and his 14 power-play goals led the Sens (and was tied for 14th in the NHL), while his 29 power-play points were one behind Alex DeBrincat for the team lead. If he can get back to his normal shooting percentage, 70 points is easily doable.