Now that we have tiered the goalies and defensemen for the West, it is time to move on to the forwards. There are a lot more forwards than defense, so we will focus on just the first five or six tiers.

Tier McDavid

Connor McDavid – Edmonton Oilers – McDavid was my only player in Tier one last year and I've created his own tier for this season. In my article last year, I talked myself out of him getting 60 goals and 90 assists and perhaps getting 40 goals and 100 assists because he didn't shoot the puck enough at 3.9 times per game with an average percentage around 15. He went out in 2022-23 and averaged 4.3 shots per game and raised his percentage to 18.2 and had 64 goals and 89 assists. He increased his career-high in power play goals from 11 to 21 and power play points from 44 to 71.

I believe he has peaked at 1.87 points per game, but if anyone could continue to rise it might be McDavid.

Tier 1

Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton Oilers – Draisaitl has 56 PPG over the past two seasons, with Mika Zibanejed in second with 35 PPG during that period. The next highest player in the Western Conference is McDavid with 31. The one concern with Draisaitl is that his ES goals dipped to 20 which was the lowest it had been for him since 2017-18. He has scored 50 goals or more three times and had 100 points or more four times in his eight full years in the league.

Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado Avalanche – In his 10th NHL season, MacKinnon reached 100 points for the first time and ended up with 111 in 71 games (1.56). He hasn't played more than 71 games since 2018-19, so I would still peg him at 70-75 games at most, but he did increase his shots on goal per game from 4.6 to 5.2. He has a career shooting percentage of 10.3 and finished 2022-23 at 11.5 and set a career-high with 42 goals. In the second half of 2022-23 he had 31 goals and 37 assists in 41 games which would prorate to 62 goals and 74 assists in 82 games. He is capable of reaching those kind of totals.

Kirill Kaprizov – Minnesota Wild – Kaprizov missed 15 games in 2022-23 and ended up with 40 goals and 35 assists in 67 games (1.12). He still managed 17 PPGs and 32 PPPs which set career highs in both. His ES production dipped a little to 43 points in 67 games compared to 77 points in 81 games from the year before. I still think he is more than capable of 50 goals and some more 100 point seasons.

Mikko Rantanen – Colorado Avalanche – Rantanen broke out in 2022-23 with 55 goals and 50 assists in 82 games with an impressive 42 goals at ES. His shots per game rose from 3.4 to 3.7 and his shooting percentage went from 14.2 to 18.0. For him to duplicate 50 goals and 100 points, he will need to remain as consistent as he was in 2022-23 where he had 29 goals and 53 points in his first 41 games and 26 goals and 52 points in his last 41 games.

Tier 2

Jason Robertson – Dallas Stars – Robertson broke out in 2022-23 with 46 goals and 63 assists in 82 games. He saw his shots per game increase from 3.0 to 3.8 and his shooting percentage go from 18.6 to 14.7. If he can raise his shooting percentage he could break 50 goals. He did slow down slightly in the second half where he had 17 goals and 49 points in 38 games after an incredible first half of 29 goals and 60 points in 44 games.

Elias Pettersson – Vancouver Canucks – Pettersson broke out in 2022-23 with 40 goals and 62 assists in 80 games. He saw his shots per game go from 2.4 to 3.2 but more importantly his even strength production increased from 39 ES points in 2021-22 to 68 in 2022-23. I don't think he shoots the puck enough to warrant 50 goals but he is more than capable of duplicating 100 points.

J.T. Miller – Vancouver Canucks – Miller couldn't duplicate his 99 points from 2021-22 but did put up 83 points in 81 games. He hasn't missed more than seven games in a season since 2014-15 and is one of the most durable players in the league. He set a career-high of 200 hits in 2022-23 and finished with five goals and nine points while shorthanded. in 283 regular season games as a Canuck he has 300 points.

Jack Eichel – Vegas Golden Knights – Eichel had 27 goals and 66 points in 67 games which was the most games he had played since he played 68 in 2019-20. He should be 100% healthy in 2023-24 and could push the envelope towards 40 goals and 90 points or more.

Kyle Connor – Winnipeg Jets – Connor saw his shots per game decrease from 4.0 to 3.3 and as a result his goal production went from 47 to 32 as he couldn't sustain his shooting percentage of 14.8 in 2021-22 and was at 11.7 percent. His point production went from 93 points (1.18) to 81 (0.99). He should be back up over 40 goals and perhaps 90 points in 2023-24.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Edmonton Oilers – How does a player go from a career-high of 69 points in 11 NHL seasons to a year where he gets 37 goals and 104 points in 82 games. He increases his PPPs to 53 on the best power play in the NHL and finishes with a shooting percentage of 18.4 compared to his career average of 13.1. While Nugent-Hopkins is unlikely to duplicate 100 points again he should be in the 80 to 90 point range once again.

Clayton Keller – Arizona Coyotes – Keller had his most productive year in his sixth NHL season where ended up with 37 goals and 86 points in 82 games. He set career highs in goals, assists, points, shots on goal (233) and shooting percentage (16.6). There is still some power play growth for him and the Coyotes as a group as Keller has never had more than six power play goals or 20 power play points in a year.

Tier 3

Mark Scheifele – Winnipeg Jets – Scheifele had his first season since 2015-16 under a point per game as he finished with 68 points in 81 games (0.84). He did have 42 goals which was a career high but just 26 assists after averaging between 40-50 the prior six seasons. This might be his last year in Winnipeg, so look for a resurgence of sorts and 80 to 90 points.

Connor Bedard – Chicago Blackhawks – Bedard comes into the NHL on a weaker team at 18 years of age. It will be difficult for him to get more than a point per game but who am I to sell him short. I think he gets 35 to 45 goals and 80 to 90 points in his rookie year but a safer bet would be 30-35 goals and 75 to 80 points.

Kevin Fiala – Los Angeles Kings – Fiala duplicated his 1.04 points per game that he had with Minnesota in 2021-22. He ended up with 23 goals and 72 points in 69 games. He exceeded his career high in power play points from 18 to 24 and could see even more PPPs in 2023-24. The Kings are a rising club and Fiala should lead the team in scoring. He is capable of 85 to 90 points.

Roope Hintz – Dallas Stars – Hintz had over a point per game in 73 games as he put up another 37 goals and had 75 points (1.03). His shots on goal went down from 2.7 to 2.5 but his shooting percentage went from 17.4 to 20.1. The shooting percentage won't be easy to duplicate so he will need to get his shot rate up a little to 35-40 goals again. His physicality took a downturn in 2022-23 with just 47 hits in 73 games.

Pavel Buchnevich – St. Louis Blues – I had mentioned last year if Buchnevich could duplicate his 76 points in 73 games from 2021-22 I would move him up to Tier three. He came close enough with 67 points in 63 games, but to stay here he will need to play 75 games or more and stay around a point per game.

Jordan Kyrou – St. Louis Blues – Kyrou proved me wrong a little as he backed up his 2021-22 output of 75 points in 74 games with 37 goals and 72 points in 79 games. He did struggle defensively with a minus 38, but his shot rate went from 2.5 to 3.4 per game while his shooting percentage went from 14.4 to 13.6 which was almost the same with 84 more shots on goal. Kyrou has emerged as more of a shooter and could produce 35-45 goals and 70-80 points.

Tier 4

Pierre-Luc Dubois – Los Angeles Kings – Dubois was traded to Los Angeles after putting up 27 goals and 36 assists in 73 games for Winnipeg. He's had back to back seasons of 27 and 28 goals and 63 and 60 points. He could be capable of 30-35 goals and 70-75 points.

Nikolaj Ehlers – Winnipeg Jets – Ehlers is a hockey poolers enigma. He screams out production and value but has only played more than 62 games once since 2018-19. In 2022-23 he played just 45 games and had 12 goals and 38 points (0.84). He is more than capable of 30-35 goals and 70-75 points but needs to play more than 75 games to do it.

Anze Kopitar – Los Angeles Kings – Kopitar had his most productive season since he had 92 points in 2017-18. He ended up with 28 goals and 74 points in 82 games (0.90) to go along with a faceoff percentage of 55.9 and 68 hits and 87 blocks. He is now 36-years-old, but should still be good for 20-25 goals and 60-65 points.

Jonathan Marchessault – Vegas Golden Knights – Marchessault had 28 goals and 57 points in 76 games in 2022-23. He's established a consistent output in the 25-30 goal and assist range and should be able to do so again.

Tomas Hertl – San Jose Sharks – Hertl peaked in 2018-19 with 35 goals and 39 assists in 77 games. In that season he had a shooting percentage of 19.9 and had 11 power play goals. He has settled into a shooting percentage averaging about 13-14 and doesn't have much offensive support in San Jose outside of Logan Couture now that Erik Karlsson is in Pittsburgh. Hertl has had 63 and 64 points back to back and should be around 60-65 once again. 

Jonathan Huberdeau – Calgary Flames – It's not often a player gets 115 points and then gets traded to a new team and plummets down to 55 points the following year, but that is exactly what happened to Huberdeau going from Florida to Calgary. We can try to pinpoint the reasons, with coaching perhaps being an issue, but there was little doubt that Huberdeau was due for some reversion, just not the 60 point reversion he ended up with. Huberdeau is not a prolific scorer, as 30 goals is his career high, but he is an excellent passer who should be capable of 55-65 assists. If he can get to 25 goals and 55 assists in 2023-24 it will go a long way to making fans forget about 2022-23.

Joe Pavelski – Dallas Stars – Pavelski is now 39-years-old and hasn't slowed down. He had 28 goals and 77 points in 82 games (0.94). He is one of the most durable forwards in the NHL having missed no more than eight games in a season since 2009-2010. He has to slow down at some point, but I think he has another 25-30 goals and 40-45 assists in him for 2023-24.

Filip Forsberg – Nashville Predators – Forsberg's injury woes continued in 2022-23 as he dressed for just 50 games where he had 19 goals and 42 points (0.84). He hasn't played more than 69 games since 2016-17, so pencil him in for 70 games and 60 to 65 points for 2023-24.

Mark Stone – Vegas Golden Knights – Stone managed just 43 games in 2022-23 where he put up 17 goals and 38 points (0.88). He hasn't played more than 65 games since 2018-19 and likely won't in 2023-24. I would put him at 60-65 games and 55 to 60 points for 2023-24.

Elias Lindholm – Calgary Flames – Lindholm saw his point production go from 82 to 64 and his goals go from 42 to 22. His shooting percentage dipped from 17.9 to 11.8 and his shot rate went down from 2.9 to 2.3 per game. 2021-22 was a career-year which Lindholm is unlikely to duplicate but I do think he can get back to 25-30 goals and 70 to 75 points.

Evander Kane – Edmonton Oilers – Kane has now played no more than 64 games in a season over the past four years. He has had back to back years of 43 and 41 games. In 2022-23 he managed 16 goals and 28 points (0.68) with no PPGs and just two PPPs. If Kane could play 65-70 games for the Oilers we could see 25 to 30 goals and 55 to 60 points. He is still quite capable of putting up very good hit totals as he has had 259 hits in his past 84 games (two years).

Brayden Schenn – St. Louis Blues – Schenn had his most productive season since he had 70 points in 2017-18. In 2022-23 he put up 21 goals and 65 points in 82 games (0.79) along with 140 hits. Schenn should be able to duplicate to the tune of 20 to 25 goals and 55 to 65 points in 2023-24.

Robert Thomas – St. Louis Blues – Thomas took a marginal step back in 2022-23 with 18 goals and 65 points in 73 games (0.89) after he had 20 goals and 76 points in 72 games (1.06) in 2021-22. His even strength points decreased from 62 to 43 so that is a bit of a cause for concern.

Logan Couture – San Jose Sharks – Couture is entering the 2023-24 campaign injured so take that into account if thinking of pickup him up in your pool. In 2022-23 he finished with 27 goals and 40 assists in 82 games which matched his second most productive point total in 13 seasons. If he plays 70 games I think he's good for 20-25 goals and 50-55 points. He set a career-high of 128 hits in 2022-23.

Matt Duchene – Dallas Stars – Duchene had 22 goals and 56 points in 71 games in 2022-23 after putting up 43 goals and 86 points in 78 games in 2021-22 while with Nashville. He is now in Dallas and is more than likely slated to be on the second line at most. He should be good for 25-30 goals and 65-70 points.

Joel Eriksson Ek – Minnesota Wild –Eriksson Ek has elevated his production six seasons in a row. He was at 0.21 points per game in 2017-18 and brought it up to 23 goals and 61 points in 78 games (0.78) in 2022-23. He's a defense first forward who is probably in his sweet spot of 20-25 goals and 55-65 points.

Troy Terry – Anaheim Ducks – Terry went from 37 goals and 67 points in 75 games (0.89) in 2021-22 to 23 goals and 61 points in 70 games (0.87). He had about the same shot rate but his shooting percentage went from 19.3 to 12.2. I think he should settle into 25-30 goals and 65-70 points.

Trevor Zegras – Anaheim Ducks – Zegras led the Ducks in scoring in 2022-23 with 23 goals and 65 points in 81 games (0.80) after putting up 23 goals and 61 points in 75 games (0.81) in 2021-22. He's currently unsigned by Anheim, and there must be some disconnect between the team and the player in terms of value. If signed, I think Zegras is a year or two away from breaking out. 

Adrian Kempe – Los Angeles Kings – Kempe increased his shooting percentage from 14.2 to 16.4 and kept his shots per game close from 3.2 to 3.0. He ended up with 41 goals and 66 points in 82 games (0.80) compared to 35 goals and 54 points in 78 games (0.69) in 2021-22. Kempe should be good for 30-35 goals and 55-65 points in 2023-24.

Mats Zuccarello – Minnesota Wild – Zuccarello just extended with the Wild for two more seasons. He had 22 goals and 67 points in 78 games (0.86) in 2022-23 after putting up a career high 24 goals and 79 points in 70 games (1.13) in 2021-22. He should be good for 20-25 goals and 40-45 assists in 2023-24.

Matthew Boldy – Minnesota Wild – Boldy ended up with 31 goals and 63 points in 81 games (0.78) in 2022-23. He raised his shot per game from 2.4 to 3.1 while his shooting percentage went from 13.3 to 12.2. I think Boldy will break out eventually to another tier but perhaps not this year. I think he should be good for 30-35 goals and 30-35 assists once again.

Zach Hyman – Edmonton Oilers – Hyman broke out in 2022-23 with 36 goals and 47 assists in 79 games (1.03) in his second season with the Oilers. He increased his shot output from 2.8 to 3.5 and his shooting percentage went from 12.7 to 13.0. He had 15 PPGs and 26 PPPs which was well up from his previous high of five PPGs and 10 PPPs. He should be good for 30-35 goals and 75-80 points in 2022-23.

Andrei Kuzmenko – Vancouver Canucks – Kuzmenko was a great free agent signing by the Canucks from the KHL before 2021-22. He ended up with 39 goals and 35 assists in 81 games on just 1.8 shots per game and a shooting percentage of 26.8. It will be very difficult for him to duplicate that shooting percentage so a season where Kuzmenko reached 30-35 goals and 30-35 assists would be a pretty successful sophomore season for him.

Jared McCann – Seattle Kraken – McCann broke out for 40 goals and 70 points in 79 games (0.89). He elevated his shooting percentage from 13.6 to 19.0 while maintaining his 2.7 shots per game. I think there will be some regression in 2023-24 but McCann should still be capable of 30-35 goals and 60-65 points.

Matty Beniers – Seattle Kraken – Beniers won the Calder trophy after putting up 24 goals and 57 points in 80 games (0.71). He will need to increase his shot rate from 1.9 per game but it might be hard to duplicate his shooting percentage of 16.2. He should be able to put up 20-25 goals and 55-65 points once again.

Tier 5

This tier includes some forwards closer to the average in most categories and some younger players on the rise.

Mason McTavish, Leo Carlsson, Barret Hayton, Nick Schmaltz, Logan Cooley, Mattias Macceli, Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund, Nazem Kadri, Taylor Hall, Lukas Reichel, Jonathan Drouin, Valeri Nichushkin, Jamie Benn, Wyatt Johnston, Viktor Arvidsson, Arthur Kaliyev, Ryan Hartman, Ryan O'Reilly, Luke Evangelista, Thomas Novak, Cody Glass, Alexander Barabanov, Andre Burakovsky, Eeli Tolvanen, Kevin Hayes, Jakub Vrana, Brock Boeser, Ivan Barbashev, Chandler Stephenson, William Karlsson, Gabriel Vilardi, Cole Perfetti.

Tier 6

This tier includes forwards who might be on the bubble for the top-nine but are riskier picks as there is little assurance of their output this year.

Frank Vatrano, Ryan Strome, Adam Henrique, Jason Zucker, Alexander Kerfoot, Yegor Sharangovich, Dillon Dube, Tyler Johnson, Andreas Athanasiou, Taylor Raddysh, Artturi Lehkonen, Ryan Johansen, Tomas Tatar, Tyler Seguin, Connor Brown, Frederick Gaudreau, Mike Hoffman, Anthony Duclair, Jordan Eberle, Yanni Gourde, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Anthony Beauvillier, Conor Garland, Nino Niederreiter, Alex Iafallo.

Any tier after this would be considered waiver material, but please let me know if you think we’ve missed anyone or miss-tiered some forwards.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you'd like me to look at please message or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.