Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Important Note – Because the next mailbag won't publish until after the start of the regular season, PLEASE DO NOT SEND ANY MORE KEEPER QUESTIONS. All other types of questions are welcome.

Question #1 (from DobberHockey Forums)

I'm looking for some advice on keepers this year. I'm in an auction league of 13 teams with rosters of 12F/6D/3G active and 9 bench spots, so 30 total players per team. Categories are G, A, PTS, SOG, PIM, +/-, W, GAA. Total budget is $210, so $7 on average per player. I have the following players in mind for my three keeper spots, with their keeper price tag denoted: David Pastrnak ($30), Tim Stutzle ($13), Dylan Cozens ($1), Erik Karlsson ($2), Josh Morrissey ($1). I'm inclined to keep Pasta, as the top guys tend to go for 40-45, with McDavid costing 50-55, plus Stutzle and Karlsson. But am I making a mistake not keeping one or both of Cozens and Morrissey, especially given their $1 price tags?

Auction keepers are a challenge, as, like here, you're often faced with a dilemma in terms of whether to keep a player who isn't a lock to produce great, or instead spend more on a "star." Looking first at Pasta, $30 is not a lot given what you say other stars go for, that is if he isn't hurt by Boston having lost both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. Roughly 75% of Pasta's points in 2022-23 were scored with one or both of them on the ice. That's a lot. Yes, he's an elite talent, but can he be a "the guy" type of player?

For less than half the price, Stutzle seems like a definite keep, as both he and his team appear to be on an upward trajectory. And Karlsson must be kept. Yes, we can't just assume he'll pick up where he left off last season; however, at a $2 price tag he's a must keep.

Cozens concerns me because the Sabres have so much depth, and it's not entirely clear he stays on PP1. And what if Casey Mittelstadt outplays him and somehow pushes Cozens to the third line? It's difficult to see that happening, although for what it's worth Cozens did slow as 2022-23 went on. As for Morrissey, he came from nowhere and exploded. Winnipeg, on paper, should be a markedly worse team; however, as with Karlsson last season on San Jose and Roman Josi on Nashville for the past several years, often if forward talent is comparatively lacking on a team it means defensemen step up more. Is Morrissey a better keep that Cozens? Here I say yes, not just due to questions about Cozens but also the fact that defensemen comprise a third of all skaters. With that ratio, I like two of the keepers being d-men.

Losing Pasta would be a tough pill to swallow; however, if Karlsson, Morrissey and Stutzle are keeps, that would be a total of three for just $16, or less than the $7 per player average that is needed based on your auction budget. With other teams likely to keep at least one star player at $40+, you'll have the money to bid again on Pasta if you want. That is key with auction leagues, namely that if someone isn't kept you always have it within your power to get him back if you're willing to pay the necessary price. That's what I'd do here – keep the cheaper Stutzle, plus bargains Karlsson and Morrissey, and pay to get Pasta back if you truly believe in him. Personally, I'd stay away given the fact that Boston's fate is unknown, plus this league also doesn't have forward positions requirements, hurting Pasta's value at least somewhat versus leagues where his status as a wing is more key. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Simon)

I'm in a 10 team H2H keeper with 23 player rosters (3C, 3L, 3R, 4D, 2G and 1Utility, plus 7 bench, not including IR) and categories of G, A, P, +-, PPP, GWG, SOG, FW, HIT and BLK. For 2022-23 I finished 2nd but have a quandary in that I ended the season with more than 23 players due to some being on IR. So I need to drop at least two of Lucas Raymond, Alexis Lafreniere and Mason McTavish. Or should I drop all three and go for Adam Fantilli or Leo Carlsson at the draft? Here are the 22 I intend to keep:

F – Jack Hughes, Roope Hintz, William Nylander, Tim Stutzle, Sebastian Aho, Timo Meier, Martin Necas, Joel Eriksson-Ek, Brandon Hagel, Tomas Hertl, Chandler Stephenson,

D – Adam Fox, Miro Heiskanen, Moritz Seider, Rasmus Dahlin, Luke Hughes, Jake Sanderson, Zach Werenski

G – Igor Shesterkin, Connor Hellebuyck, Ilya Samsonov, Pyotr Kochetkov

Before you say I should drop Luke Hughes, Kochetkov or Sanderson, know that I've made up my mind that I value them more than any of those other three, so please don't suggest them as non-keeps.

I've covered Laffy several times, and the comparables based on what he did in his first three seasons were Dainius Zubrus, Taylor Pyatt and Marco Sturm. None really panned out great, and the two who had some success didn't achieve it until age 27. I don't think Laffy passes muster as a keeper.

I happen to like McTavish and Raymond. Looking first at Raymond, he fared pretty much as well as he did in 2021-22, except for a bad quarter. I also really like that Raymond had 37 PPPts over the past two seasons for a team that had only 94 PPGs in total, with eight of those coming in the eight games Raymond missed in 2022-23, so really it's 37 in 86, which is a PPPt on 43% of all PPGs scored by the team while he was active. To put that in perspective, Brady Tkachuk had 46 PPPts in 161 games for a Sens team which had 119 PPGs (38% rate) over the course of the past two seasons. Raymond hasn't even hit his breakout threshold, plus the team around him is vastly improved, which should help more than hurt him, as he's all but assured to stick on PP1 but this will ensure he has quality linemates whether he's on the first or second line. As for McTavish, the Ducks opting not to draft Adam Fantilli should give us an idea of how highly they regard him and his potential to form a one-two punch with Trevor Zegras down the middle. On the other hand, although plenty of teams have had successes with two talented pivots, there is a chance Anaheim doesn't get good enough for McTavish to be able to reap the same benefits as Zegras, who, make no mistake, is Anaheim's "the guy" center.

I'm keeping Raymond, but not McTavish or Laffy. The question is whether to drop any of the 22 players you listed as keeps in order to secure a draft pick which, based on your experience in your league, likely would land you Fantilli or Carlsson.

Kochetkov indeed would've been among those I proposed dropping; but I can get behind keeping him, as he should be hitting his stride as Hellebuyck slows. The other iffiest players are Eriksson-Ek, Hagel, Hertl or Stephenson. All four are 60-point downside players; but what's their upside? Yes, Eriksson-Ek's scoring has risen each of the last five seasons, but Marco Rossi could make inroads, or, if not him, then a UFA next year. As for Stephenson, if he had another gear we'd have seen it by now. Hertl is a very good player who'd likely be better on a more potent team; but given how things are shaping up for the Sharks its difficult to envision him being better than the 65 point producer he was over the last two seasons. As for Hagel, he's still young and has played well alongside Tampa's big boys; however, much of what he's achieved was also done by Ondrej Palat, and we know where things went from there for him.

It boils down to whether you need "here and now" production to still win or instead could sacrifice that for a chance to land a player who could have a huge impact in Fantilli or Carlsson. My view is you stick with what you have. Those four are not sexy names but they have a nearly zero chance of not producing according to expectations. In a 23-team full keeper, you need locked in production, so much so that you do have to make sacrifices in terms of being able to build for the future. Drop Laffy and McTavish but no one else. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Brett)

I'm in a 10 team league and each team can keep 2 players for one year and the kept players are put on their team in the rounds they were drafted the prior year. It's a non-snake draft and I'll be picking 9th in each round. Our starting lineups include 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 1U, and 2G, plus 4 Bench. Categories are G, A, +/-, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, Faceoffs, Hits, Blocks; Wins, GAA, SV%, Shutouts.

For keepers I'm debating between these players (round they'd be kept in parenthesis): Nico Hischier (17), Dougie Hamilton (9), Rasmus Dahlin (7), Vitek Vanecek (17), Ilya Samsonov (12), Joonas Korpisalo (17). My initial thought is two goalies, or one goalie and Hischier, will have the best return based on draft positions. With the three goalies I could keep there are potential red flags due to competition or injury concerns, but I feel they will return good value due to their round. What would you do?

Instead of thinking of players in the rounds they'd be kept, think of them in terms of draft position that would represent. Hischier would be 163rd overall, Hamilton 72nd, Dahlin 63rd, Vanecek also 163rd, Samsonov 108th, and Korpisalo also 163rd. While I know Yahoo leagues aren't the same categories, here's where each are being drafted on average as I wrote this: Hischier (64th), Dahlin (40th), Hamilton (52nd), Vanecek (81st), Samsonov (82nd), and Korpisalo (90th).

What does this tell us? First and foremost the goalies are comparable, meaning if you let them go you'd probably be able to redraft whichever you want in round eight or nine. Hischier would represent the biggest bargain; but as I explain more in answering question #5 I worry he doesn't have much room to improve, as he's a two-way center on a team with Jack Hughes, meaning he's going to have a lower OZ%, which will limit his upside. In fact, I have a difficult time envisioning him tallying more than 80 points, which we already saw last season, and factored in a huge increase in SOG as well as more PP time.

Going back to goalies, all would be retention bargains; but all have – as you noted – concerns or question marks. If Akira Schmid wasn't in the picture, I'd say keep Vanecek for sure. But his picture is cloudy at best. Samsonov has never logged anywhere close to a full workload, and even then he's had injury issues. And Korpisalo played well for a bit and seemingly is walking into a very good situation in Ottawa; but I am not convinced he's more than the mediocre back-up he's been for his career.

If it was me, I'd gamble on Vanecek. He makes a lot more than Schmid, who will remain waivers exempt until he plays a chunk more games and had nearly as many downs as ups during the postseason. I think the Devils want Vanecek to seize the job and will give him every chance to do so. I'd use a keeper spot on him. The other pick would be Dahlin, who I know isn't the bargain Hischier is but was above a 90 point pace for two-thirds of last season and I think has a legit chance to be the top scoring d-man in all of the NHL, as his role as the go to option for blueline offense for Buffalo is locked in and his team should score a ton of goals. Hischier is steady, but I think you'll be able to get 70-75ish point guys with the pick where you'd retain Hischier, whereas not getting the production from Dahlin, even though he's far less of a round bargain, is something you just should not pass up. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Micah)

I'm in an 8 team H2H keep 6 league with a maximum salary of 3 (each keep adds 1 salary). Goals = 3; Assists = 2; PPP = 1; SHP = 2; BLK = .3; HIT = .15; SV = .2; GA = -1; Wins = 3; SO = 5. Rosters are 10F, 5D, 1UTL, 2G, plus 5 bench slots. I'm keeping Tim Stutzle (1 Salary); Tage Thompson (1); Brayden Point (1); Miro Heiskanen (2); Moritz Seider (2); and Andrei Vasilevskiy (1).

My first question is a general question for valuing F versus D versus G in my league, and I suppose in point leagues in general. I have in the past given defensemen an extra .6 average points to compare their values i.e. Cale Makar I predict to get about 3.6 fp/g in my league, so I give him an extra .6 to make his value 4.2 fp/g, making Makar equivalent in value to someone like Auston Matthews or Nathan MacKinnon. Do you think this is a good way to value F versus D?

When it comes to goalies, I've not been able to come up with a formula for measuring value because of inconsistency, which can cause a decent goalie to not even be worth keeping and make an undrafted goalie into a top 10 guy (case in point – Linus Ullmark was picked up off the waiver wire last year). Is there a good way to rank a goalie's value compared to that of a F or D?

My next question is how to go about drafting. I have the 4th overall draft pick, and I know for certain that Makar and Bedard will go 1 and 2. The third pick will likely be Brady Tkachuk. That leaves me with a choice among Mika Zibanejad, William Nylander, Roope Hintz, and Steven Stamkos as forward options and Mikhail Sergachev, Quinn Hughes, and Evan Bouchard as defensemen options. I'm hesitant to pick a defensemen because I know forwards will be going faster based on how they're ranked on Yahoo, but I feel like Sergachev is too good to pass up. My problem with picking Sergachev is that he may very well be available at my next pick, which is 13th overall (John Carlson, Victor Hedman, and Quinn Hughes I see as much more likely to be drafted if someone wants a defensemen in my league based on ADP and my league likes to draft more known names).

This means I could potentially get Hughes, Sergachev, and Bouchard in my 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks if I decide to draft Hughes first. But because I'm keeping Seider and Heiskanen this would mean I'd have no more D slots. I could go for one of the forwards, in which case I'd lean towards Nylander or Hintz based on age. And then I'd look to draft Sergachev in the 2nd Round with potentially Bouchard in the 3rd round. So I guess my question is: are Sergachev, Quinn Hughes, and Bouchard so valuable that if I can get them I should always go for them even if it means tying up all my D slots?

My last question is, since I already have a very solid goalie in Vasilevskiy, is there any point in looking to draft a goalie, or should I just draft whoever falls into my lap at a convenient time? Every elite goaltender is being kept (Oettinger, Georgiev, Shesterkin, Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Saros, and Hellebuyck) which makes me feel like getting someone like Demko late in the draft is much better value than getting someone like Jarry or Samsonov earlier in the draft. Thoughts?

There's a lot to digest here. Let me start by saying that in a league with under 250 players owned, there will be ample talent that goes undrafted and emerges during the season. Yes, this likely also will mean some goalies should prove worth owning but won't even be drafted, with Ullmark last season being a glaring case in point. So to answer your last question first, I'd bank on letting others grab goalies and land on them later in the draft, probably with at most three on your roster, figuring you can always grab a fourth or swap one out as the season emerges. But with Vas now out for a while, you might rethink keeping him, which would leave you with a hole in your roster you didn't expect to have.

In terms of your valuation of D and F, I think trying to quantify this is unnecessary. The fact is that top end D is rarer than top end F. Does anything much more need to be said? Want proof? The third highest scoring forward only had 10% more points than the 13th highest scoring forward. For rearguards though, the difference was 22%, or more than double. So yes, do indeed value premium D highly, but don't obsess about the mathematics.

Given this, and for your draft situation, I'd 100% try to emerge with Sergachev, Bouchard and Hughes, as I could see all three finishing in the top ten in rearguard scoring. Those forwards you listed are all fine and dandy, but they're not game changers like the d-men. Having those three rearguards, plus the retained Seider and Heiskanen, would not only give you a great blueline, but also at the same time put you in position to be able to trade one or more of them during the season to help your team in other areas if needed. Yes, it's always nice to have a perfectly balanced team; however, having strength in one area is also key, as it gives you options you wouldn't otherwise have. Plugging holes at the forward position is far easier than doing so for defense. Heck, I'd go so far to say as top tier d-men are as rare as top tier goalies, and perhaps more reliable. So stockpile those five, grab goalies and forwards as it makes sense to do so (tiering is always a good idea), and that should position your team to succeed, whether just based on what you already have or being able to trade arguably the most precious commodity in fantasy hockey, namely a true scoring d-man. Good luck!

Question #5 (from DobberHockey Forums)

I'm in a 16 team, keep 3, H2H league where categories are G (3), A (2), SOG (0.1), PPP (1), SHP (2), +/- (0.5), W (2), SO (4), SV (0.15) and GA (-1). We start two at each position, plus one utility. Keepers count as a draft pick for the round they were taken in the previous year. I won the league last season and opted to keep Leon Draisaitl (round 1), Tage Thompson (round 3) and Nico Hischier (round 7). I had also considered keeping Jake Oettinger (round 4) but assumed no one would keep goalies and, sure enough, no one did. My 2nd rounder, taking into account other keepers, will be the 10th pick overall.

Given this, how would you value goalies for draft purposes? And in your opinion, should I have kept Oettinger over either Thompson or Hischier? Should I be aiming for a G in round 2, or try to get a stud D (only Cale Makar and Roman Josi were kept)? Essentially everyone kept 3 forwards, so the best forwards available include Alex Ovechkin, Tim Stutzle, Roope Hintz, Matt Boldy, Connor Bedard, and Johnny Gaudreau.

I always preface giving advice to league champs by saying that if they were able to win, especially in a 16 team league, then they likely have good instincts. Second, this is an interesting format, as I don't think I've ever heard of a league where an equal number start at each position. To me, that makes wingers hugely important. And it begs the question – what if none of your three kept forwards gains (or retains) winger eligibility? If that happens, you've kind of boxed yourself into a corner.

That leads me to my advice, which, in hindsight, would have been not to keep Hischier. Yes, I realize that basically 48 forwards were kept; however, chances are most of those were kept in rounds earlier than Hischier, meaning that in addition to kept guys a total of 50-60 more players will be drafted before the spot in which you'd have had a pick if you opted not to retain Hischier. Could you get a player who is as good as Hischier under those circumstances? Almost certainly not. That is only part of what ultimately should have influenced whether it was "right" to keep him. Among those 50-60 picks will be a heck of a lot of goalies and defensemen, that's for sure. You need those players, plus wingers, while my guess is most other teams kept a winger or even two, as centers as simply easier to grab.

All this having been said, it is telling that not a single goalie was kept. But keep in mind none of these other GMs won last season, so the voice in the back of your head that says maybe Oettinger should've been kept might be on to something, as often in fantasy when all others do one thing the best play is to do the opposite. Granted, you don't want to be foolish, or just go against the flow for the sake of doing so. Also, if yours is a snake draft, then keeping Oettinger would've meant losing the very first pick of round 4, as you pick in the beginning of that round, versus picking in the very last spot. That's a decent difference. With Hischier kept in round 7, it would have meant the last pick of that round, giving him slightly more value. Not huge factors, but worth noting.

Still, I'm having a tough time getting past the positional quandary into which you put yourself. On top of that, I fear that we may have seen the best we'll get from Hischier. Why is that? For one, his SOG rate jumped a lot, but it was steady every quarter, suggesting it might be at or near his ceiling. Also, as is not surprising on a team that has Jack Hughes as its #1 center, Hischier's OZ% was under 50%. In fact, it was 47.5%, which is quite high for a player who nearly posted point per game numbers. Part of that was his spot on PP1, but that might be in jeopardy, as he had a PP IPP under 50% and New Jersey has one too many elite forwards for that unit, whereby Hischier could be elbowed aside in favor of having a top unit of Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, and Tyler Tofolli.

Would Oettinger instead of Hischier been better or not though? I think there's a good case to be made that the answer is yes. The categories are great for a goalie like Otter, who has a high volume and plays for an elite team. I'd wager that Otter would've been the third or at worst fourth goalie drafted, depending on whether the draft had occurred before Andrei Vasilevskiy was announced as needing to miss a couple months.

Long story short, maybe if Hischier was a winger, or your other forward keepers were, then I could see a case to be made to keep him. Given the totality of circumstances I'd have opted for Otter instead. And I would not have had regrets upon hearing that other teams didn't keep a netminder, as that could be based on a variety of circumstances and, as I noted, none of them won the league last year so who's to say their collective opinions make the most sense. Don't let it bog you down though. Just hope one or more of your forwards gets winger eligibility, and go out and draft yourself a winning team yet again. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Dan)

I’m in a 20 team H2H auction league where goals and assists are worth 1 point and goalie wins are worth 2 points plus 3 points added on for shutouts. Total roster size is just 12 players, and each week we start 3F, 2D, 1G. So it's a pretty shallow league despite the number of teams. 

For the 12 players we each get to spend $100. We're also able to keep up to 4 players, with each team's 2 most expensive keepers each costing $2 more than their prior season's cost to retain, and their 2 lesser expensive players adding $4 each. There are two in-season redrafts where managers bid on free agents based on how much cap space, in auction dollars, they have.

I need help choosing from these five options for my keepers: Connor McDavid – $32 to keep, Cale Makar – $21 to keep, Brayden Point – $8 to keep, unless I don't keep Makar, in which case $6, Erik Karlsson – $7 to keep, Evan Bouchard – $5 to keep. There are no trades allowed before the draft so I can't do a two for one trade.

McDavid and Makar have helped me win three of the last four championships so my instinct is to keep those two along with Karlsson and Bouchard. Dropping Makar would open up a lot of money at the auction, but I'm all but certain he would go for over $30 in the auction if he was made available. I realize we only start 2 d-men each week, but it feels like keeping McDavid, Makar, Karlsson and Bouchard makes sense as that way I could more easily load up on cheap forwards and also flip one of the d-men for a forward during the season. How would you handle this?

Keeping Makar would mean your four keepers would eat $65 of your auction budget, leaving you a total of $35 for your remaining eight players. My guess is decent goalies don't come too cheap, and you probably need to draft two of them since there are only two in-season redrafts and you don't want to be in a spot where you can't start a goalie because your lone one got hurt. In truth, you're likely looking at spare change for your other players if you did go this route.

Still though, owning McDavid and Makar in a league with 12 player rosters would be huge and you can point to their proven results. But every year they get more expensive, making a bigger dent in your available auction cash. While it is true you could only start two of Makar, Bouchard and Karlsson each week, having all three would give you insurance in case Makar or Karlsson gets injured, as has tended to happen for both. You can also maximize games played and favorable schedules this way.

Thinking about this more, a total of 240 players will be drafted, of which probably 40 will be goalies. That means 200 skaters. Let's say most teams have to spend about $15-20 for goalies; that leaves a total of $80-85 to spend on ten skaters each. So the average price for skaters should be $8 or so, or roughly more than twice what you'll have even without factoring in goalie prices.

I'm going to give you some conditional advice. If it will cost you $15-20 to get the goalie(s) for your team, then I don't think you can afford Makar. Yes, losing him would be a tough pill to swallow, but as you indicated he'll cost another team more to own, making it so Makar would come at a cost that could hurt them in addition to helping them. Meanwhile, your budget changes from $35 to spend to $50 to spend. It's not like you're left with scrub d-men either, as Bouchard and Karlsson should be top tier guys. In the end, I think I let Makar go unless goalies are much cheaper than I surmised, in which case you probably could afford to swallow the auction dollar hit of carrying Makar. Good luck!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.