Ramblings: Spurgeon, Heinola Injuries; Knight to AHL; Players I’m More Confident In Than You Are (Oct 7)

Ian Gooding

2023-10-07

At this time of year there's a ton of injury and roster cut news to sift through, so I'll try to pull out the most fantasy-relevant stories.

Jared Spurgeon is currently listed as week-to-week with an upper-body injury (possibly a shoulder injury) suffered in Thursday's preseason game. Spurgeon has been an underrated fantasy defenseman for the past few years, but the presence of Calen Addison has resulted in Spurgeon's power-play usage declining. In fact, Spurgeon only recorded four power-play points in 79 games last season. I moved on from him in one keeper league this offseason, and those of you who drafted him in single-season standard leagues might be able to do the same with this recent news. That being said, Spurgeon finished in the top 10 with 179 blocked shots last season, which is why I'm retaining him in a league that counts that category.

Ville Heinola was placed on injured reserve on Friday because of a fractured ankle he suffered in Thursday's preseason game. Heinola has appeared in four different seasons for the Jets, yet he has never played more than 12 NHL games in a season. It may seem like he is past the point of being considered a prospect, yet he is only 22, having made his NHL debut as an 18-year-old back in 2019-20. Those who have rostered him in keeper leagues might have to be patient with him for at least one more season, as he has shown some scoring upside (37 PTS in 48 GP in the AHL last season).

Numerous players were placed on waivers on Friday. If you would like the full list, you can check out Elliotte Friedman's Twitter/X, or you can scroll through the Dobber Player News. One particularly notable player being waived is Grigori Denisenko, a one-time top prospect who hasn't been able to gain much traction in the Panthers organization since being drafted in 2018. There's a slight chance that he needs a fresh start elsewhere, but we also have to remember that not every first-round pick that shines at the World Juniors becomes an NHL star.

In their latest round of cuts, the Panthers also sent Spencer Knight to the AHL. Knight played in just 21 NHL games last season, as he entered the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program in February. Although it might seem like Knight's career is taking a step back, this could be a positive move as it ensures he gets his game up to speed while providing him with more playing time than he could have received in the NHL. Remember that Knight is also only 22 years old – only eight months older than Devon Levi, who many consider to be too young to be an NHL starting goalie. I’m not suggesting Levi isn’t too young (in fact, I argued quite the opposite yesterday). I’m actually trying to say that Knight still has a ton of time to develop into the starting goalie the Panthers hoped he would be when they drafted him in 2019. Maybe he's right where he should be. In fantasy leagues, this could even be a buy-low opportunity.

In the meantime, Anthony Stolarz will begin the season as Sergei Bobrovsky's backup. Expect Bobrovsky to play in at least 50 games, as he has for six of the past seven seasons (the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season the only exception). I think the Panthers will have a bit of a Stanley Cup run hangover and are also without Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad to start the season, which won’t make life easy for Goalie Bob.

Yesterday I listed and explained a few players that I'm not as sold on as you might be. You might be wondering by now if any players fit the reverse category for me. Absolutely – I'll call them players that I'm probably more confident about than you are. The best description seems to be that these are players who won't regress as much as you might think. In fact, some are players I have drafted on my team and am perhaps trying to justify.

Another commonality is that compared to the players I'm not as sold on, this group of players consists of more veterans that might be viewed as being on the downside of their careers… or at least have passed the "shiny new toy" phase of their career. Although perhaps I made my case that I'm more confident in young goalie Knight than you are. So if you're losing confidence in a prospect, is there still time for the player, and does there seem to be a way back?

Anyway, back to the veterans.

Jonathan Huberdeau

Huberdeau is being listed as a top bounce-back candidate in a few articles that I've read. So why is his Yahoo ADP still at 123? Even in the two drafts that I've participated in, Huberdeau is being drafted at around pick 100 or shortly after. Have we forgotten that he recorded 115 points a season earlier? Sure, he was a bust during his one season in Calgary (55 PTS in 79 GP). But the source of what was believed to be the problem (Darryl Sutter) is now out of the picture. The default pre-draft rankings are causing him to slip farther than he should, but I'd have no problem with you reaching for him in the top 100.

Brad Marchand

Marchand will no longer score at over a point per game. However, in one recent draft I was able to grab Marchand at #82. Has he really fallen that far after being a top-10 fantasy option two years ago? Finding the right center after Patrice Bergeron's retirement might be an issue, but last season dropoff could also be explained by the fact that he started the season in late October after offseason surgery. His Yahoo ADP is 39, which I think is a bit high. Opinions will vary, but it's easy to be bearish on the Bruins.

Morgan Rielly

At the time I'm writing this, John Klingberg has been battling an upper-body injury during the preseason, but he is expected to be ready in time for the Leafs' opener. Even if Klingberg returns, I still see the Toronto power play as fluid. The Leafs probably want to give Klingberg his opportunity here because he's at his most productive when he's leading a power play. However, if it's clearly not working, expect Sheldon Keefe to return to Rielly, who they are at least familiar with. Rielly had a down year in 2022-23 (41 PTS in 65 GP), but he's still only one season removed from a near-70-point season.

Tyson Barrie

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Barrie's value took a tumble when he was traded from Edmonton to Nashville. Not only did he lose that plum power-play spot in Edmonton, he was also potentially looking at a second-unit power-play role on Nashville behind Roman Josi. However, given the Predators' clear lack of elite scoring options, Barrie could very well be side-by-side with Josi on the first power-play unit. This is the best spot for him, as he has recorded at least 20 power-play points in five of his last six seasons – his one season in Toronto being the exception.

Linus Ullmark

The reigning Vezina Trophy winner is a fade among many. He has a Yahoo ADP of 31, yet he fell to me at pick 130 in one of my drafts. In that draft article, I explained why I don't think he's as bad as some might think. Maybe it's because I don't think the Bruins will fall as far as others do. When I wrote about that draft, I also noted that Ullmark has never posted a goals-against average above 2.70 or a save percentage below .915 over the past four seasons.

Who said preseason games don't matter? They matter to Sidney Crosby!

The New Jersey Devils look like a team that could move into the short list of contenders this season. They've sure looked like a juggernaut in the preseason, finishing 7-0-0. Akira Schmid made his case for a significant workload, recording a 30-save shutout of the Islanders on Friday. As well, Jesper Bratt and Jack Hughes are currently 1-2 in preseason scoring with nine and eight points respectively in four games. It's just preseason, but there's a lot to like about this team right now.

Speaking of which, look out for the Dobber writer individual award and team predictions, which should be ready sometime in the next couple days. Will any of them pick the Devils to win the Stanley Cup? You'll find out soon enough.

With the regular season less than a week away, you might have a draft this weekend. If so, pick up your Fantasy Guide from the Dobber Sports store! Remember to review your guide before your draft – there's too much information for you just to simply refer to it at your draft. Don't be that person that crams for the test 10 minutes before it starts!

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