Looking Ahead: Early Line Combinations and New Roles for Paul, Donato, and More
Andrew Santillo
2023-10-13
Welcome back everyone and hopefully you all had a fantastic offseason! For those new to Looking Ahead, first off welcome, and here are the ABC's: We're going to help you make fantasy roster decisions based on the NHL schedule as well as adding some stats into the mix and of course eye test. I'll also give out some NHL clubs that I like and dislike in the near future for DFS/Betting/What game to have on the main TV. The last of those is arguably the most important. With that, let's dive on in and cheers to another great season of fantasy hockey.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Nick Paul, C, Tampa Bay Lightning (Rostered in 12% of ESPN leagues, 19% Yahoo) – Alright so for the Immediate Fix here we want to try and find a player that can help you win in the short-term. Maybe your matchup is close, and you just need that one extra push to start the season 1-0, and in order to do so I look at clubs that have a healthy schedule to close out the week. Tampa checks that box for us here and although they've played only one game so far this season, I was really impressed with Nick Paul's play and think this might be a great add to make.
I'm still not entirely sure why the Senators moved off Paul, but that's a conversation for another day. Coming into the season I can't be the only one that thought that Paul would probably slide in on Tampa's third line with Michael Eyssimont and whichever left-wing on the carousel was going to slot in, but let's think back. This is a Tampa club that has had stellar third lines in the past, and I don't mean that in a negative way whatsoever. Patrick Maroon – Pierre-Edouard Bellemare – Corey Perry, Vlad Namestnikov – Ross Colton – Nick Paul himself, at one point as well I remember watching a Stanley Cup matchup (can't remember which, they all blend in for me with Tampa) where Ryan Callahan was out there on the ice playing meaningful minutes. Sure, in fantasy nobody is going out there looking to roster players on a third line, but this is a Tampa club that year in and year out can use their depth to get a mismatch here or there better than most NHL teams.
When it comes to Paul though, I don't think he's truly a third line C and just watching the game on Tuesday reiterated that point. He scored on the top power play, while also centering that unit, and saw shifts up next to Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. Just focusing on the man advantage, he skated over six minutes on Tampa's top unit and if that continues throughout the season, I can only see Paul's value rise drastically. Let this weekend be a trial run with Tampa playing in back-to-back games on Saturday and Sunday and heck, maybe even into next week as well. If Paul continues to be used in a top power play role, he may be more than just an Immediate Fix for your roster.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Ryan Donato, RW, Chicago Blackhawks (Rostered in 5% of ESPN leagues, 5% Yahoo) – Okay so maybe this is a stretch for a guy you'd want to go out of the way to roster, but there are reasons why Ryan Donato may make sense here for fantasy and DFS alike.
With only so many clubs that have been in action so far in this very young NHL season it's hard to really gage what players and lines will look like but for the Blackhawks we've had the advantage of watching this club in action twice. Two things we know are certain here, maybe three. One is that Connor Bedard is 18 years old and the second is that he is definitely a talented offensive player that seems to really play well with Donato on his wing. The third was that I don't think we as viewers need to watch another Connor Bedard and Sidney Crosby sit down but I'll leave that up to the viewers discretion.
In the two games so far for Donato he has gotten a point in each game with seven shots on goal and is playing on the Blackhawks top power play. Granted it's a power play that looks lost out there to start the season, but it's a man advantage none the less. Where I think Donato might shine in fantasy here is if both him and Bedard really gel together throughout the season, as we've already seen evidence that just may be the case. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility here that Donato is the primary or secondary assist leader here and with the news coming that Taylor Hall will likely miss a week or two, I can't see the Hawks moving Donato away from Bedard. For fantasy purposes even if you just throw Donato on a watchlist for the time being I think that's a valid option while for DFS he's going to make for an excellent cheap filler to fit onto a higher priced lineup.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Phillip Danault, C, Los Angeles Kings (Rostered in 58% of ESPN leagues, 19% Yahoo) – This week's odd-man out nominee was an easy one to find here. In short, Pierre Luc-Dubois in, Phillip Danault out.
I feel like in every draft I've been in the past few years it always seems like Danualt get selected and if it's a live draft you usually hear someone say that they just missed out on him or that they had him on their watchlist as a sleeper, and there's good reason for that. He's coming off back-to-back 50-point seasons while centering LA's second line that usually had either Adrian Kempe, Trevor Moore, or Viktor Arvidsson alongside him. With newly signed Dubois in the mix, I can only imagine that he's going to be used on LA's best defensive line getting matched up against opposing top lines. That's not a bad role for Danault at all given how skilled of a defensive forward he is, but for fantasy that leaves us with some question marks surrounding him.
You can scroll up to the top of this article and re-read me making a case for Nick Paul who is on a third line so what's the difference here? Where I think the issue might arise for Danault is that he’s not going to get top power play duties as often as we'd like for fantasy. I'm not saying to go out and try and trade or outright drop Danault this early, but I definitely think you should keep an eye on his shift charts and the line combinations for Los Angeles closely in the early going.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Los Angeles Kings (Rostered in 50% of ESPN leagues, 73% Yahoo) – I don't know why, but it seems like whenever I write up one Los Angeles player, I tend to write up two. Anyways, let's talk Viktor Arvidsson. Dobber Tweeted it out…or X'd out, whichever we'll calling it these days, "It's not a true NHL season without that first Arvidsson lower-body injury." I couldn't agree more and that's what makes him our first Anchor of the season.
I think in a lot of later fantasy drafts Arvidsson may have gone undrafted for this reason, but it's well founded as this has been an issue with going back to last season. Sure, he appeared in 77 games, but it was the "will he, won't he" that can drive fantasy and DFS players alike batty. It doesn't help with LA playing the majority of their games on the west coast for leagues that become lock at first puck drop or weekly lineups, as we most of the time are given injury news for him close to puck drop Pacific time. No time to dive into the IR, and sometimes no time to late swap, it makes rostering players like Arvidsson a difficult task. The earliest he can return to the Kings lineup is November 8th, so for now if you want to claim him off waivers to throw onto your IR that's fine, but I would just be cautious moving forward.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through October 13th – October 22nd
Arizona – Yes, it is Arizona but they're only one of three teams that will play four times next week which is something that we like to see here. Bright side, if not for being able to play in fantasy or DFS, maybe playing against?
Calgary – I really liked Calgary as a bounce back club this season and I think they can really work their blueline as a strength for them. They'll be in action four times next week and will be valuable as only one of four clubs that will be in action next Friday. Stay hot, NHL.
Detroit – The last of the clubs that will be in action four times, the Wings will be one of three teams to have back-to-back games over the weekend. They're also a higher rostered club across the board in fantasy which makes those of us with more than one Red Wing on our roster very happy. Seriously, how did I end up with so many Red Wings?
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Seattle – Negatives: They will play Colorado, Carolina, and the Rangers, next week. Positive here is at least they will be home for these three games. Tough way to start for the Kraken.
Chicago – Okay so yes, the Hawks are a fun watch here early but they're next three games will be on the road in Montreal, Toronto, and Colorado. That's the home opener for all of those clubs and that's coming off a week where they already played in two home openers. It's nothing that a stat or anything we can point to, but hockey players are creatures of habit and at some point, all these later starts and buildings with excited home crowds have to begin to weigh you down.
New Jersey – I love this Devils club and I know I'm not the only one here, which is difficult when they will only play twice next week. They're a Leave 'Em for the time being.
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.