Geek of The Week: Shooter’s Luck

Ryan Brudner

2023-10-15

Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this week's article, I am going to bring up three players that will be undervalued right now, based on their early season "bad luck". These are players who normally put up many shots on goal, but have not been able to so far. I will be examining the reasons for this. These players are great targets for a trade or someone to keep on your watch list.

Owen Tippett42% rostered on Yahoo

Tippett was someone I brought up a few weeks ago as a safe high-floor player. Through two games, he has zero points, three shots on goal, no hits, and one block. Not great at all, eh! Since he is owned in quite a few leagues, he may not be available in yours, but fantasy managers may start dropping him. Even though he hasn't gotten many shots on goal, he is near the top of the league in shot attempts per 60. He has fired 16 pucks toward the net, with eight being blocked, and 5 missing the net. That is a shot on goal (out of attempt) percentage of 18.8%. His last few seasons, this number has been in the 55%-61% range.

This points to Tippett having some bad luck early on and not getting his shots through, but the attempts are still there! His scoring chances per 60 rate is still in his normal range as well, meaning he is still creating quality opportunities to score. He is getting good power-play time, and enough even-strength minutes to produce once those shots start getting through (and hopefully in the net). He is still a safe bet for around three shots on goal per game, over a hit a game, and 45-50 points for the season. If he were to be given a top line role, like he was near the end of last season, he has the potential for even more.

Nikolaj Ehlers43% rostered on Yahoo

Ehlers has run in to a lot of bad luck, not just puck luck. He seems to have an ailment that is ongoing, which kept him out of many preseason games, and is popping up making him questionable for some games. Aside from this, his coach is not playing him! He's averaged only 11:55 even-strength time on ice and finds himself on the second power-play unit. This might be because of the injury that is bothering Ehlers or it is just Rick Bowness not utilizing his talent properly. It is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Ehlers has loads of potential if he can just get some more ice-time. Even with his deployment not being ideal, there is more bad luck to uncover. Similarly to Tippett, his shot attempts are not hitting the net. He has 4 shots on goal, yet has 13 shot attempts (near the top of the league per 60 minutes). This is a rate of 30%, where his last few seasons has been 53%. If his ice-time doesn't change, he might not be worth holding onto, but his shot attempts should start hitting the net more and he has the potential to be a top scorer based on his per 60 numbers. Keep an on eye on his deployment.

Rickard Rakell – 73% rostered on Yahoo

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Through three games, Rakell has picked up no goals, one assist, five shots on goal, five hits, and two blocks. He is on the top power play unit (where he has no points so far) with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, and Erik Karlsson. Firstly, there is no doubt that those power-play points will come if he stays on this juggernaut unit. Secondly, – can you guess what I am going to talk about? – he has plenty of shot attempts! With 16 shot attempts and only five hitting the net, this shot rate (out of attempts) of 31% is just too low and should regress to his normal range (55%-60%). With great hit numbers (similar to last season), and great deployment, once his shot attempts start hitting the net, he'll be greatly valuable in multicat leagues.

Hope you enjoyed! See you next week.

Follow me on Twitter/X @fantasycheddar, where I will answer any questions you may have.

-Ryan Brudner, Top Cheddar Fantasy

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