Do you have a late draft? Pick up my 18^th annual Fantasy Guide here. The last update was October 12, so a couple of days into the regular season.

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And now that the season has started…

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— Dobber (@DobberHockey) October 14, 2023

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It's early, and as some of you may know I'm pretty anti-knee-jerk when it comes to making moves after just a couple of games. I generally tend to wait until a team gets in 10 games before making significant moves. But that doesn't mean I won't do smaller moves based on what I've seen.

Depth players on my team in one of my leagues (full roster with deep bench, but Keep 12) include Mackie Samoskevich and Fraser Minten. Both have bright futures. Samoskevich I think is destined for a top-six role – just maybe not this year. I will often advise that we leave the scouting to the scouts, but in this case the eye test was pretty obvious. Mackie was overwhelmed from what I've seen. Turnovers, panicky passes…the regular season is a far cry from the preseason and he's learning that first hand. Not the same confidence as what we've seen from a Zach Benson, for example. The Panthers will be patient with him and give it a few games, but either way – he can be dropped in favor of a player who can give you nice depth in the here and now. So that's one minor move I made, adding James van Riemsdyk in his place.

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Minten seemed more composed, but in his case he's not a big part of the offense for Toronto. His future strikes me as more of a middle-six type. I swapped him out for Nicolas Roy, who has both dual eligibility as well as modest Hits, BLKS and plus/minus stats. Roy has been a steady 0.9 points/game guy under our points system for the last two seasons, and early on he's averaging 1.1. I can see him sustaining that, which makes him a decent depth option. And if not – it's easy to drop him for the next hot player. I seriously doubt Minten becomes a keeper this year.

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Here are some other observations that, while I don't think are knee-jerk reactions, it's enough to kind of make an early assessment of how things will go…

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Brock Boeser's hot streak, while obviously unsustainable, is certainly a solid harbinger of what's to come. I can't speak to his future with regards to injuries, though they always seem to play a role with him. But I can say that he's coming off a disappoint season, and flying out of the gates like this bodes well for his production for 2023-24. Because of injuries often limiting his game totals, he has finished with between 45 and 56 points in all six seasons of his career. Last campaign he played 74 games, which was a career high. If he can do that again, then a career-best points total seems to be in the cards.

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Chandler Stephenson has posted back-to-back seasons of production in the mid-60s. With Ivan Barbashev in the fold and Jack Eichel healthy, it was looking as if not only would Stephenson get knocked out of key PP time, but he might possibly get pushed to the third line. That's actually far from true. He's playing with Mark Stone and seeing more PP time than ever, notching two PP points. It's looking like his career-high of 65 points will actually be surpassed. Three of his five points were also touched by Stone, so Stone's health will obviously play a role in that. But the early assessment is – Stephenson is not taking a step back, and the added PP time is super-promising.

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Coach John Tortorella couldn't decide between Tyson Foerster and Bobby Brink. Nor could he choose between Emil Andrae and Yegor Zamula. So for now, he's trying one (Brink and Zamula first)…and then the other (Foerster and Andrae next). Fantasy owners of any of these four players are in for an annoying first couple of weeks, but it looks like whichever forward and defenseman can stand out more, will win the spot. Right now, nobody has really done it, though Foerster seems to be ahead of Brink by a nose hair. No idea how many games Torts will give this, whether it's three games each or five, but it's as if he's extending training camp for these guys. Zamula is no longer exempt from waivers, so Andrae is behind the eight-ball in that battle.

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There was some worry over whether Vladimir Tarasenko would adapt okay to a new team. After all, he was coming off a poor season (50 points in 69 games). At 31, what if the decline has started? Yes, his reputation and pedigree would be enough to sustain him in terms of ice time and PP time, making 50 points a solid floor. But can he rekindle his prior success? So far, he's fit in very well and his PP success makes up for his weaker linemates (so far Mathieu Josep and Ridly Greig). That line really opens things up for the top six, as a nice bonus.

With two more points Sunday, Tarasenko has now done that in back-to-back games.

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And with that, I'll transition into the two Sunday games. One of my many Fantasy Guide hunches was that Matt Tomkins made a sneaky-good first-half waiver add. I had been hearing good things about him, but the driving reason was…well, Jonas Johansson sucks. Two games with Colorado last season plus an impressive preseason aside, Johansson has shown us for three years that he's been really bad. I was a fan of him as a prospect, and I'm the first guy to tell you that many goalies won't come into their own until they're 28 or 29 (he's 28 now). But he was just consistently bad with Florida and in his early days with Colorado, so I feel like it's scarred me from being bullish on him. Needless to say, I was puffing my chest out with pride when Tampa was getting hammered early on against the Sens on Sunday, yet somehow came out of things tied 2-2. At one point, Tomkins had allowed just a goal on 20 shots (I think shots were around 20-8 at the time). A goal late in the second seemed to deflate him, and another one in the second half of the third period kind of ruined what was actually a pretty solid start. In the end, Tampa was outshot 38-24. Johansson will remain the starter for another couple of games – but if he gets blown out, while Tomkins keeps playing like he did on Sunday, and that will change quickly.

Tampa's PP units on Sunday:

Time	%	PP – FORWARDS	GF	GA	SF	SA	SF%	CF	CA	CF%
1:55	47.9	KUCHEROV – POINT – PAUL – HAGEL	0	0	2	0	100.0	3	0	100.0
1:15	31.3	SHEARY – CIRELLI – BARRE-BOULET – JEANNOT	0	0	1	1	50.0	1	1	50.0

Victor Hedman was PP1, Mikhail Sergachev PP2

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And Ottawa…

Time	%	PP – FORWARDS	GF	GA	SF	SA	SF%	CF	CA	CF%
2:10	54.2	GIROUX – TKACHUK – BATHERSON – STUTZLE	0	0	3	0	100.0	3	0	100.0
1:16	31.7	TARASENKO – KUBALIK – GREIG	0	0	0	0	0.0	1	0	100.0

This had Thomas Chabot PP1, and Jakob Chychrun and Jake Sanderson for PP2. The redheaded stepchild continues to be Erik Brannstrom. Brannstrom got PK time, but that's hooking up a stud racehorse to the plow. I do own Brannstrom in one dynasty league, and man am I looking forward to his trade out of Ottawa. I honestly think the holdup is that Sens brass are scared a trade will blow up in their face.

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Disturbing trend for those in banger leagues: Brady Tkachuk averaged 4.43 Hits/game in 2020-21, 3.42 a year later, 2.95 last season…and just two Hits per game so far this time around. I suspect the coach has been pleading with him to dial it back, not risk injury or needless penalty.

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Pavel Mintyukov with his first NHL goal. Future star, and I have his upside at 65 points (will take several years). FYI I have Jackson Lacombe's upside at 55. Both are going to be great defensemen, and with Olen Zellweger and Tristan Luneau, the Ducks' future on defense is going to be Colorado-scary.

Minty 1st goal
LaCombe 1st point
Stromer 400th point

SO much going on here! #FlyTogether pic.twitter.com/Hjeof6ftj0

— Anaheim Ducks (@AnaheimDucks) October 16, 2023

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With a hat trick Sunday, Frank Vatrano now has 18 goals in his last 41 games. In fact, he is on a 54-point pace in that span. He also has 119 SOG (i.e. nearly three per game) and 48 PIM (i.e. averaging more than one per game).

Playing with Vatrano may have Ryan Strome going, as well. Or perhaps they're helping each other? Either way, Strome up to three assists in two games now.

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Lots of power-play time to go around for the Hurricanes in their game against Anaheim. Tony DeAngelo led the defensemen with 5:56, followed by Dmitri Orlov at 4:25 and then Brent Burns at 4:18. Those three cannibalized each other.

The forwards saw far more PPTOI, with Michael Bunting leading the way with 7:52 (!). That's nearly two full minutes more than Sebastian Aho.

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For those stragglers in later drafts – good luck! And thanks for supporting all the sites that make up Dobber Sports.

And if you still want to get into a league, check out Dobbernomics (and/or search for the app in the app store and download it). It's free to play, and you compete against either the world, or your friends. Or both. And I'm starting out very poorly (and my attempt to fix it, adding Antti Raanta, blew up in my face), so you can probably pass me right away. You can jeer me until your throat is hoarse, and wouldn't that be fun?

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See you next Monday.