Eastern Edge: Early Power Play Questions for DeBrusk, Letang, Anderson, Burns, and More
Brennan Des
2023-10-17
In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll review early answers to power-play questions around the conference. We'll also discuss how Kirby Dach's injury affects the Canadiens.
Early Answers to Power-Play Questions
From season to season, with players developing, injuries emerging, and rosters changing, there's always some uncertainty about each team's top power play unit. With a few games behind us, we now have initial answers to some of those preseason uncertainties. Below, we'll compare players we thought would see prominent power play roles this year, with those that have actually seen more action with the man advantage so far. Percentages in brackets represent a player's share of his team's total power-play time. Keep in mind that these numbers are still influenced by a small sample size.
Boston Bruins – Jake DeBrusk (37%) vs. James van Riemsdyk (52%)
Sure, we're working with a miniscule two-game sample, but it's interesting to see JVR ahead of DeBrusk in Boston's power-play depth chart right now. DeBrusk would have been more familiar with the team's power-play personnel, having spent time on the top unit last year. He posted a solid 14 points with the man advantage over 64 appearances (0.22 PPP/game). That's a higher scoring rate than JVR managed in any of his last five seasons with Philly. Yet, the Bruins have turned to JVR for a net-front presence on the power play. He's delivered so far, tallying two points with the man advantage. It's a role he thrived in previously, and early indications suggest he could be turning back the clock. Although JVR has a bigger role on the power-play, he's averaging just 12 minutes of ice time overall, a stark contrast to DeBrusk's 17 minutes per game.
Carolina Hurricanes – Brent Burns (49%) vs. Tony DeAngelo (56%)
Through Carolina's first three games, DeAngelo and Burns have mostly played together on the same power-play unit. There were a few times DeAngelo was deployed without Burns, which explains the current discrepancy in proportion of power-play time. It's worth noting that DeAngelo tallied a power-play point during those solo stints, giving him two power-play points to Burns's one. It's obviously still early, and DeAngelo's lack of defensive ability could land him in the doghouse at some point, but he seems to be getting the more favourable deployment right now. If he continues to see a greater share of the team's power-play time, DeAngelo could outproduce Burns this year.
Pittsburgh Penguins – Kris Letang (18%) vs. Rickard Rakell (74%)
Heading into the 23-24 campaign, there was chatter that the Penguins would opt for two defensemen on their top power-play unit, deploying Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson with superstar forwards Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Jake Guentzel. Three games into the season, we've mostly seen the traditional four-forward unit, with Rickard Rakell taking Letang's spot, leaving Karlsson as the lone defensemen of the group. The sample size is obviously small, but Pittsburgh has converted on 25% (2/8) of their chances so far, so there's no reason to change this configuration right now.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Brandon Hagel (30%) vs. Nicholas Paul (75%)
Brandon Hagel was frequently the fourth forward on Tampa's top unit last season, skating alongside stars Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point. With Tampa's power play boasting the third-best success rate in the league last year, it seemed logical that the team would go with the same group again. Instead, they've replaced Hagel with Nicholas Paul, who's never really played a prominent role with the man advantage. It's paid dividends so far, with Paul tallying two power-play points through three appearances. Eligible to play center and left wing in Yahoo leagues, Paul was already an intriguing option in leagues that track faceoff wins and hits, but this power-play role gives him the offensive potential to be relevant in more formats.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Mikhail Sergachev (23%) vs. Victor Hedman (76%)
Last year, Sergachev saw a greater power-play role than Hedman, allowing the former to outproduce the latter on the man advantage. With Sergachev being seven years younger than Hedman, and recently signing a long-term deal with Tampa, there were some (myself included) who saw last year as a passing of the torch, with Sergachev usurping Hedman as Tampa's top fantasy blueliner. It's still early in the campaign, but it seems that conclusion was premature. Through three games, Hedman has seen significantly more action with the man advantage. It's worth mentioning that both blueliners alternated last year; there were some stretches where Sergachev was on the top unit, and other stretches where Hedman was. There's a good chance we see something similar this year, so don't be too discouraged if Sergachev is on your fantasy roster.
Dach Injury
A strong first game of the season saw Dach tally two points, spearheading a strong Canadiens' second line with newly acquired Alex Newhook and 2022 first overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky. Unfortunately, Dach got injured early in game two and early reports indicate he'll be sidelined long term. Although he's still being evaluated, Eric Engels reported that the 22-year-old forward could have a torn ACL and MCL in his knee. In other words, there's a chance he ends up being sidelined all season. It's an unfortunate development for the Habs, as Dach seemed ready to build on the 54-point pace he posted last year. He was an important play driver for Newhook and Slafkovsky, who may not be as productive without Dach. It seems the Canadiens will move Newhook to center and drop Josh Anderson to the second line, with Rafael Harvey-Pinard seeing a promotion to the top line beside Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki. RHP showed great chemistry beside Suzuki last year, tallying 14 goals over 34 games as a rookie. Although he could provide sneaky value in deeper leagues while skating on Montreal's first line, a lack of prominent power-play time limits his fantasy value in other formats. Speaking of Montreal's power-play, it looks like Anderson will step up to the top unit in Dach's absence. The 29-year-old power forward hasn't shown much power-play prowess so far in his career, so I don't think that promotion will last. Expect other players to get a shot in that role until the team finds a combination that works.