Wild West – Early Surprises from Each Team (Part 2)

Grant Campbell

2023-10-23

This week I'm going to look at each team in the West and pick some players who have stood out positively and perhaps negatively after just a few games.

See Part 1 here.

Nashville Predators

Alexandre Carrier seems to be back to the level that he was from 2021-22. He has two assists in six games, with four hits and 20 blocks while averaging 20:34 per game. In 2022-23, he struggled playing just 43 games and averaging 17:53. He could put up 80-90 hits and 120 or more blocks while producing 20-25 points.

Tommy Novak was a bit of a surprise in 2022-23 when he put up 17 goals and 26 assists in 51 games. He's started off with four goals in six games and has proven that it might not have been a one-time thing.

Cody Glass was unfortunate in picking up an injury which will keep him out for about 10 days. He's had a prime opportunity with the Predators in 2023-24 playing in the top six and playing on the top unit of the power play at times. He didn't take advantage of it in the five games he played going pointless. He needs to hit the ground running when he returns from injury.

Philip Tomasino appears to be on the verge of being on the fringe in Nashville once again. After playing well in the last 31 games of 2022-23 where he put up 18 points, he has struggled in 2023-24 in the four games he has played. If he doesn't turn things around, the Predators might not give him a second chance to get his game back on track in the AHL. He could be on the trade block.

San Jose Sharks

The Sharks have scored seven goals in five games and are destined for a lottery pick in the 2024 draft.

It is a little impressive that Tomas Hertl has managed to put up five points in five games. He has won 62.4 percent of his faceoffs, averaged 21:02 per game and played 71.2 percent on the power play. At the moment he has very little support offensively, so it will be a challenge for him to get 60 points or more.

I was a little surprised that the Sharks gave Henry Thrun just two games before sending him to the AHL. He had two points with one being on the power play. Admittedly, it is never a good sign when the coach says that a player is struggling, but the Sharks don't have a defender with much offensive capabilities outside of Thrun and this team is likely to struggle with or without him in the lineup.

Between veteran forwards Luke Kunin, Mike Hoffman, Anthony Duclair, Kevin Labanc and Alexander Barabanov they have produced one goal and one assist in 22 games collectively. All of these players should improve but to what extent is anyone's guess.

Seattle Kraken

The Kraken have had very slow starts from Yanni Gourde, Eeli Tolvanen, Andre Burakovsky, Jared McCann, Jaden Schwartz, Alex Wennberg, Kailer Yamamoto, Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle. Not one of these forwards has more than two points in six games to start the year.

The good news is that the Kraken have had pretty poor puck luck and are 30th in the NHL in PDO at 954 with a 5v5 shooting percentage of just 4.2. Their offense should rebound and most of those forwards should revert back to the levels we are used to production wise and with their plus/minus.

While that should be true for most of the forwards who are struggling there might be one or two who continue to struggle. Keep an eye on all of them over the next two weeks.

St. Louis Blues

Jordan Binnington has been excellent in three games, with all three being quality starts while posting a 95.9 save percentage and a GSAA of 5.41. Binnington hasn't had a positive GSAA since 2020-21. Joel Hofer struggled in his first game and with Binnington playing well, the odds of Hofer getting a bigger share of starts has diminished. Whether Binnington can maintain this play will be determined, but it was definitely the start he needed.

The Blues have yet to score a power play goal, so I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the lack of offensive production for the likes of Jordan Kyrou, Torey Krug or Brayden Schenn as the power play points should come.

Pavel Buchnevich was injured after two games and could be out for 7-10 days.

Kevin Hayes has just one assist in four games and more concerningly he has just two shots on goal (0.5/g) and his ice time has averaged 15:23 after being between 17-18 minutes per game over the past six seasons. It might be a case of getting his feet wet in a new system with the Blues but I would keep an eye on both those stat lines.

Vancouver Canucks

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Elias Pettersson remains unsigned for the 2024-25 season and is set to become an RFA. He has 10 points in the first five games and right now the Canucks can't afford him at this production. Fortunately for the Canucks, Pettersson owns a 5v5 shooting percentage of 22.5 which is much higher than the 12.1 percentage he had in 2022-23. His xG% at 5v5 is 44.5 which screams reversion as it stands.

Brock Boeser had four goals in the first game of the season and now has six goals and an assist in five games. He has never had more than 29 goals in his career and is hopeful that he can exceed that mark. He is shooting 35.3 percent at the moment which is unsustainable, but a good sign for him is that only one of his six goals has been on the power play.

Filip Hronek has been better than I expected in his own end. He has three assists in five games and he has played on the second unit of the power play but has been on the first unit of the penalty kill as well. He has four hits and nine blocks, so he has an outside chance of getting 100 hits and 100 blocks.

The Canucks have given up the 4th most shots per game in the NHL at 36.2 but Thatcher Demko and Casey DeSmith have been excellent. Demko has a save percentage of 93.0 and a GSAA of 2.60 while DeSmith has a save percentage of 93.8 and a GSAA of 2.78.

Conor Garland is on the trading block and has been given plenty of opportunity to play with very good linemates, but he has just one goal and one assist in five games while averaging just 12:05 per game. In 2022-23, Garland averaged over 15 minutes per game and he needs a new start.

Anthony Beauvillier is pointless in five games with just six shots on goal while averaging 13:08 per game. He looks a little lost on the ice right now and has been playing on the third line so he can't benefit from playing with Elias Petterrson or J.T. Miller unless he gets another opportunity.

Vegas Golden Knights

Jack Eichel appears to be back at 100% health. In the first six games, he has three goals, three assists and 32 SOG (5.3/g). His icetime is back to just under 20 minutes per game after playing 18:46 in 2022-23.

Shea Theodore has taken advantage of the injury to Alex Pietrangelo and played 76.6 percent of the time on the power play where he has had four of his six points. They have gone back and forth for PP time over the past two or three years with neither playing more than 59.4 percent of the time.

Adin Hill and Logan Thompson have both been very good to help the Golden Knights out to six wins in a row to begin 2023-24. Hill has a save percentage of 93.4 and a GSAA of 3.18 while Thompson has a save percentage of 93.5 and a GSAA of 1.95.

After putting up 18 points in 22 playoff games, I thought Ivan Barbashev would improve upon 16 goals and 29 assists in the 82 games he split between St. Louis and Vegas in 2022-23. He has had a slow start with just one goal in six games but things should turn around as his xG% at 5v5 is 54.3 so the team is getting some chances while he's on the ice.

Vegas is no stranger to losing top end players to 20 or more games during the season with Eichel, Mark Stone, Alec Martinez, Theodore and Pietrangelo being regular members of that club. So far, they have just Pietrangelo expected out for a few more days. If this team is healthy, they could win 50 games, but I think they only care about repeating winning the Stanley Cup.

Winnipeg Jets

Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck must feel a little more relaxed after signing seven-year extensions in Winnipeg. Scheifele has started out well with four goals and two assists in his first five games. After six seasons in a row being above a point per game, Scheifele dipped to 0.84 in 2022-23. He will look to get back there.

Hellebuyck struggled mightily in his first three starts in 2023-24 but made 40 saves on 42 shots to beat Edmonton on Saturday night. He has an overall save percentage of 87.8 and a GSAA of negative 3.19. The Jets will need Hellebuyck to be as good as he was in 2022-23 to have any chance at the playoffs this year.

Nikolaj Ehlers has just two assists in five games. He has averaged between 0.82 and 0.98 points per game over the past four years but hasn't played more than 71 games. When Gabriel Vilardi went down with an injury, Ehlers has replaced him on the first unit of the power play. Vilardi is expected out of the lineup for 4 to 6 weeks.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you'd like me to look at, please message or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 27 - 14:04 NYI vs CAR
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Apr 27 - 20:04 TOR vs BOS
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