Top 10 Takeaways From Early This Season
Tom Collins
2023-10-23
Even though we’re still early in the season, there are multiple fantasy general managers who are panicking over their fantasy squad’s slow start.
Ideally, you want to be a little patient at the start of the season. Some players are still rusty from an off-season injury, or there’s a new coach, new teammates or a new system to get used to. We’re also dealing with small enough sample sizes that one great game or horrendous game can skew overall numbers tremendously.
One good rule of thumb to not overreact to early-season trends is to give yourself a buffer before making any major decisions. So, for instance, no major trades or dropping bigger-name players until the 10-game mark. Or the 15-game mark. Or whatever number you are comfortable with.
This rule will prevent you from making a knee-jerk reaction to a small sample size.
However, you still need to do your research and be cognizant of early-season trends that may be happening. This will help you make a more informed decision when you get to your self-imposed deadline for major trades/drops.
Last week, we focused on early-season power-play takeaways. This week, we’re going to focus on a lot of different situations that are worth keeping an eye on.
Below are the top 10 takeaways/trends early this season.
10. Connor Brown‘s top-six experiment has failed
When Brown signed with the Oilers in the offseason, many were expecting he could set career highs in points as he was expected to play on the top line with Connor McDavid, whom he had major chemistry with in junior. Coming off ACL surgery, we should have known it might take a while for Brown to shake the rust off. The Oilers, who lost their first two games and did not look good in doing so, didn’t have the patience. It took only those two games before the Oilers’ brass decided that Brown would no longer get a look on the top line and was dropped to the third line. He went from a popular sleeper pick to outright droppable within a week.
9. New names for hits/blocked shots
If you’re in a deep league that counts hits and blocked shots, you are always on the lookout for an under-the-radar player to pick up. Red Wings defenseman Jake Walman averaged just under two blocked shots per contest a year ago. This year, he’s up to 2.83 per night. He’s averaging 20 minutes per game, but keep in mind he only produces in blocked shots, so he’s strictly a one-category player. For hits, Will Cuylle could be worth a look. He has 15 hits in five games, led by seven in a game last week against the Preds. Although he is on the third line, he got bumped up to the second power-play unit on Saturday night, so there may be a little bit of sneaky value there.
8. Ilya Samsonov faltering
Normally, you want the Leafs goaltending, as they are almost guaranteed wins, but Samsonov’s poor start already has questions about whether the team should turn to someone else in net. In his first two starts, he allowed five and four goals. In his third start, he gave up two goals and somehow lost that game. In his start on Saturday, he allowed three on four shots before being pulled. Joseph Woll struggled against the Blackhawks, but was great in relief Saturday. Woll, available in 70 percent of Yahoo leagues as of Sunday night, could be worth a pickup until this gets straightened out.
7. Filip Chytil in the top six
In the offseason, there was much debate about Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere and whether they would get top-six roles. They both did, but many of us missed the part that the third part of the Rangers’ kid line would also be moved up to a top-six role. He and Lafreniere are both playing with Artemi Panarin, and like in previous years, Chytil is performing the best of the kid line. Thanks to a three-point night on Saturday, Chytil has four points in five games (Kakko and Lafreniere have two apiece). All three are reunited on the second power-play unit, but in deep leagues, don’t sleep on Chytil (he’s still available in 91 percent of Yahoo leagues). This also means Vincent Trocheck has been bumped down to the third line at five-on-five, which is not ideal for his fantasy worth.
6. Cam Talbot over Pheonix Copley
I have Talbot in a points-only pool, and I seriously considered dropping him in the offseason once he signed with the Kings. I thought there would be too much of a battle between him and Copley, and Talbot just won’t get enough games to be worth it. Early on, he’s easily taken the top gig, starting four of the team’s first five games. He already has two wins, whereas Copley struggled in his one start. Talbot is still available in 49 percent of Yahoo leagues as of Sunday. It’s not too often a number-one netminder of a potential playoff team is sitting on the waiver wire.
5. Jake Sanderson has taken over the Sens power-play
There was going to be some debate over who was going to be the quarterback on the Sens’ top unit as there are three options: Jakob Chychrun, who had that role in Arizona; Thomas Chabot, who has been that guy in Ottawa for half a decade; and Sanderson, the team’s defenseman of the future. I figured it would take half a season before Sanderson would take over. It took five games. On Saturday afternoon, Sanderson was on the ice for 65 percent of the team’s man-advantage minutes and scored a power-play goal. He has three power-play points, one more than Chychrun and three more than Chabot. However, this could be a fluid situation all season, so it’s best to keep an eye on it each game.
4. Power-play struggles
Only two teams have yet to score a power-play goal this season: The St. Louis Blues and the Washington Capitals. The Blues average only 2.75 power-play opportunities per game, tied for second worst going into Sunday’s action. The Capitals average 3.25 per contest, 22nd in the league. It’s the latter that is getting the most attention. The Capitals have five goals total in four games, and their two goals on Saturday against Montreal could be considered an offensive outburst right now. That’s not good for Alexander Ovechkin‘s quest for the goal-scoring record.
3. Matthew Tkachuk with zero goals
There’s been a lot of focus on Ovechkin’s goalless streak to start the season, but he’s not the only culprit. Brayden Point hit the 50-goal mark last year. This year, he’s scoreless in six games. Mika Zibanejad has zero goals in five games. Roman Josi has zero goals despite 23 shots across six games. But maybe the worst zero-goal man is Tkachuk. Tkachuk was a first-round pick in most leagues, and is coming off back-to-back 40-goal campaigns. But goalless in five games with 21 shots is not ideal.
2. Carolina can’t keep the puck out of their net
Carolina was a popular pick to win the Metropolitan Division, but they won’t come close with the goaltending they are getting. Frederik Andersen has only played in three games thanks to an upper-body injury. He is 2-0, but has a 4.14 GAA and a 0.855 SV%. Unfortunately, those are the best numbers of all the Hurricanes netminders. Antti Raanta hasn’t been able to do much, and despite having a win in three games. He has a 4.41 goals against average and a 0.818 SV%. Pyotr Kochetkov, who was sent down to the minors on Sunday night, has two losses in two starts to go along with a 5.13 GAA and a 0.822 SV%.
1. The Red Wings scoring by committee
The Red Wings are the highest-scoring team in the league, averaging five goals per game through six contests. While much of the focus has been on Dylan Larkin and the bounce-back year of Alex Debrincat, the whole lineup has been fantasy relevant. Seven players have already scored two goals, while 12 players have at least three points each. The team’s decision to put both Moritz Seider and Shayne Gostisbehere on the top power-play unit has paid dividends as the Red Wings have the second-best power play in the league. Currently, it’s wrong to bench almost any Red Wing.