Ramblings: Frozen Frenzy Recap – Sabres Explode, Ovechkin Scores, Hartman’s Handful, New Jersey Wingers & More (Oct 25)

Alexander MacLean

2023-10-25

Frozen Frenzy took over the NHL last night, with all 32 teams playing, and no two games starting at the same time. We had hockey straight from 6pm EST with the beginning of the Leafs and Capitals game, all the way to the end of the late game between the Golden Knights and the Flyers.

The reactions online were mixed, though generally pretty positive. Unfortunately, since it wasn't exactly a Canadian feature I can't say I had the benefit of really watching the streaming action myself.

Generally, I like the idea of staggered start times, but for fantasy purposes, having every play on the same night is not ideal for team management. It does give an advantage to those top-heavy teams, and those GMs that are a little more on top of the schedule than your average Joe. If it becomes a more regular thing, then a slight adjustment in fantasy strategy may be needed for you to load up on the teams with heavy off-night schedules, and to focus on the top-tier talent rather than the depth players who will be benched in nights like this anyways.

Let's run through some quick hits from all the action last night.

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Alex Ovechkin was a man on a mission last night, notching 10 shots by the halfway point of the game, and 14 overall. He scored his first of the season on a power play to end the second period. That top-unit in Washington hasn't done well yet, but once they get going it will be a pile of power play points as usual.

Tom Wilson got an assist on Ovechkin's goal, but all of Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Dylan Strome finished above Wilson for power play time in the game among forwards. All four are worth looking at buying low on at this point.

Joseph Woll now has 65 saves and only one goal against through his last two appearances. He's going to see some more starts moving forward, and is worth a look in most leagues where average is valued equally or more than volume.

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The Panthers are more of a top-heavy team, so missing Barkov really hurts. Luckily it was against San Jose, who is just a lightweight team across their lineup. Likely a game that Barkov might have played in a more important situation.

Anthony Duclair was traded from the Panthers in the summer, before they signed Evan Rodrigues to the exact same cap hit, and taking over his top-six spot as well. Rodrigues has filled in marvelously, with one power play assist last night, and eight points in six games overall on the year. Duclair meanwhile hasn't had the same success with lesser linemates in San Jose, though six games he only has one point, six shots, and is a minus-five. It's tough to say anyone on that team will turn things around much either.

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Don't look now, but Timo Meier has three points in his last two games. If he can keep scoring even at a 65-point-pace, then he saves some of his value. The real issue though is that his ice time hasn't been high enough for him to keep up the peripheral-stuffing that has made him so valuable the last few years. It just seems like the Devils have the puck too often, and too much skill to manage it effectively, so Meier just isn't as effective with the hit or shot volume. Tough to get too excited about a big rebound unless something changes.

Alex Holtz also scored his first of the season, but playing on the third line there isn't enough offence to go around and have it be worth rostering him unless you're in a deeper league, or the Devils run into some injuries.

Really Tyler Toffoli is the right-wing to own on New Jersey. With his hat-trick last night he's up over a point-per-game, and added over five shots for the third time in five games.

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Alex Barre-Boulet scored his second goal in two games, but more importantly, he's playing on the top line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kcuherov. There aren't many better landing spots in the league, and for a player whose offensive skill was never in question, that he finally seems to be sticking now on an offensive line, he could coast at a 50+ point pace the rest of the year and no one should really be too surprised.

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Ryan Hartman netted five points (hat-trick and two assists) on route to a seven-to-five win over the suddenly lowly Oilers. A good buy-low time for the Oilers, but it looks like the Wild’s top producers are firmly in the ride-the-hot-hand for a while territory. Three points each for Kirill Kaprizov and Jake Middleton, though Jonas Brodin and Calen Addison are really the defencemen to own for the Wild.

Hartman meanwhile may be due for some regression, but a 65- to 70-point campaign is certainly not out of the question if he keeps this deployment. With all four lines looking decent to start, it’s looking rosy for now.

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I am politely requesting that the St. Louis Blues let Scott Perunovich play a few games. He can't be worse than either of Marco Scandella or Tyler Tucker on their third pairing, so they might as well add some offence to those minutes.

Pavel Buchnevich also made his return for the Blues, and scored his first of the season. After putting up zeroes through the first two games of the season, this was a monkey off his back, and an especially welcome sight for his fantasy owners as Buch aims to increase his scoring rate for the seventh consecutive year. The smart money on this point is on the under for that, though he should still pace for 70+ points by the end of the year.

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You can't get your hands on Cale Makar or Mikko Rantanen (each two points last night) if you don't already own them already this year, but you can add one of their more productive support players for some short-term gains.

Jonathan Drouin was expected to be the one putting up these depth numbers, but right now it's Ryan Johansen racking up numbers. Despite his lowest ice time per game since his rookie season, Johansen is shooting at his highest rate in nearly a decade, and has three goals to show for it already. Those who remember him from his Nashville days will have long memories around how little he shot, and how few goals he scored while expectations were higher.

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Ilya Sorokin is going to be the reason this Isles team is in the playoff race again. He kept them in it long enough to keep things close, but a top team like the Avs was just too much. Sophomore Simon Holmstrom to score his first of the season,

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Bryan Rust is already a quarter of the way to last-season's goal total, having scored his fifth of the season last night. Playing with Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel, while the rest of the lineup looks deeper than ever, Rust is looking like he's back to the player he was from 2020-2022. He may be shooting about double his career-norm, but he is also without an assist thus far, and at the rate Crosby and Guentzel can put pucks in the net, there will be some balancing across his stat columns as the season wears on. His three shots per game are also very promising too.

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Connor Bedard also got in on the scoring action, with his third of the season – which was then called back on an offside. He's at four points in seven games, though the most notable thing is that his shot volume has really tailed off. After 20 shots in his first four games, he has three in his last three games. A bit of an adjustment period for the rookie.

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The Sabres really exploded offensively against the Sens, quieting the talk that the Sens were a playoff-ready team while the Sabres weren't quite there yet. It also really reset any of the ground Anton Forsberg had made up in trying to wrestle the starting job from Joonas Korpisalo. This is likely going to be a hot-hand situation, with a slight lean toward Korpisalo and the bigger contract for the time being.

Brady Tkachuk also left the ice in considerable discomfort, and he's a nearly impossible fantasy player to replace. He returned for the start of the third, but if he does end up missing some time in the end, then there is one in-house replacement who would benefit with some extra ice time. If you can get your hands on Drake Batherson, he may be an excellent buy-low that can bring some scoring as well as excellent peripherals.

On the other end of the ice, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen threw his name into the ring to run with a few more starts. The Sabres may not need perfect goaltending to make the playoffs, so whoever of the goaltending trio gets hot at the right time, could easily get a longer leash and cash it in for at least 25 wins on the year. That being said, I still think Devon Levi gets sent down at some point soon, with both Eric Comrie and UPL nearly splitting the rest of the season, each earning about 20 wins in the remaining 70+ games post-Levi.

The offence really makes the goaltending discussion less important though, with the big-money players leading the way. Two points each for Alex Tuch, Casey Mittlestadt, and Jeff Skinner, and three for Tage Thompson.

Rasmus Dahlin kept up his assist-streak, notching one for the sixth straight game. He's putting up the exact season so far that fantasy owners were dreaming of, and that could win him the Norris trophy.

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Joe Veleno with another goal for the Red Wings, and he's up to four through seven games (with an assist on the books for good measure). He's having the offensive breakout that I was expecting from Jonatan Berggren this year. As a cente behind Dylan Larkin, J.T. Compher, and Andrew Copp, Veleno is only seeing 13 minutes per game. Luckily for him, it's mostly offensive-zone time, and he has recently been set up with two very efficient offensive producers in Daniel Sprong and David Perron. Sprong himself was an excellent producer in limited minutes last year, so we already know he can put up those kind of numbers as well, and now Veleno appears to be tagging on.

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I may count myself as young in most circles, but even this made me feel old:

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Kevin Fiala‘s hot start continues, with nine points now through eight games. He’s doing this while only shooting 6.5% too, so there is still some balancing out with his underlying numbers, but overall he should be able to sustain the point-per-game pace. The bump in overall ice time (mostly extra early power play minutes) is helping.

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See you next Wednesday! You can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.  

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