Happy Halloween!   And apparently, it's time to take a few masks off – it's still October, and some hockey writers are prematurely out there awarding trophies. Jack Hughes for the Hart! Connor Bedard for the Calder!  (Of course, that one was "settled" pre-season, maybe even before the draft lottery – Bedard actually HAS the trophy already, just to see where it looks best on the mantelpiece.)    Vegas vs Colorado in the Western finals?  Seems set – make your hotel reservations now!    But maybe consider that the NHL has now played just over 8.7% of the season's schedule.  I wish we required that New Year's Day arrived before the presentations begin.  

Specifically, rookies thus far have a grouping of skater stats, and then a stand-alone performer between the pipes:

Ridly Greig, five points, +7, 16 SOG

Matthew Poitras, five points, +4, 13 SOG

Logan Cooley, five points, +/-0, all 5 PPP

Connor Bedard, five points, -4, 25 SOG

Bobby Brink, four points, +4, 14 SOG

Luke Hughes, four points, +2, 13 SOG

Pavel Mintyukov, four points, +2, 12 SOG

Kaeden Korczak, four points, +2

Matthew Knies, four points, +1

Adam Fantilli, four points, -3, 17 SOG

Darren Raddysh, four points, -3

Egor Zamula, three points, +5, just 5 games

Leo Carlsson, three points, +4, only 3 games

Joseph Woll, three wins, 0.961 sv%, 1.33 GAA

So if this is an award for the player having the best projected NHL future, then absolutely it's over.  And it has been over since June.

But just maybe let them play.

Saturday's matchups:

Trying to put out the best matchups?  Oh, no – DraftKings starts its series tonight at the 7 pm Eastern hour, passing on the Seattle vs. Florida game at 6 pm.  Yahoo also starts lineups at 7 pm.

Annoying?  You can obviously play game props, or to parlay Florida winning by 2+ goals and Evan Rodrigues having one point?  Just over 2 ½ to 1. 

Anyway, my new appetizer game:  Ottawa Senators @ Pittsburgh Penguins

It's hard to know which Pittsburgh team shows up each game, and this makes them a tough bet. Lackluster loss to St. Louis? Completely out played by Dallas? Dominates the Colorado Avalanche. But then, Ottawa is suddenly without Thomas Chabot and Erik Brannstrom, making defensive depth a big issue. Bryan Rust ($5200) is off to a hot start, with five goals in seven games, and Reilly Smith ($4600) has four. Or maybe it's the night that Erik Karlsson ($6200) looks like that $10 million bet that Kyle Dubas made in the off-season. Thus far, one goal and three assists, just below Ridly Greig's stats from my opening comments. 

Entree – Detroit Red Wings @ Boston Bruins

Are the B's real?  Six wins to start the season, but only a single opponent who'd made the 2022-23 playoffs.  Potentially a paper tiger, in my opinion, and ripe for a thrashing from the Wings.  Dylan Larkin ($7400) has played as well as anyone in the league this far, and his equal on center ice isn't playing for Boston this year. Spend the fantasy assets here – his 15 points, and Alex DeBrincat's 13, trail only Jack Hughes for the NHL lead. DeBrincat ($7600) may be too pricey, thus consider power-play scorer David Perron ($4300).  And my first defender Jake Walman ($4600) is Moritz Seider's ($5300) first pair partner, and leads Detroit in blocks.   Jeremy Swayman ($8500) may have shut out the Blackhawks, but I'm seeing a different result here.  

Dessert/nightcap:  Las Vegas Golden Knights @ Los Angeles Kings

Bad blood here, but neither is this the Marc-Andre Fleury vs. Jonathan Quick matchup anymore, and goal-scoring should "reign." My play is that the home team knocks off the Knights, maybe by a 6-4 margin. Both squads are coming off Friday games, Vegas having taken their first (overtime) loss. A sloppy game where goals and leads are exchanged frequently. Two of Kevin Fiala ($620), Pierre-Luc Dubois ($4900), and Adrian Kempe ($5800) to fit under the fantasy cap.   Dubois, specifically, needs to rebound from two sub-par performances – just four points in seven games as he's struggled to transition in L.A.

My lineup:

Centers Larkin and Dubois, wings Perron, Rust, Kempe, defensemen Walman and Morgan Rielly ($4800 – far less cost that Karlsson), utility player Reilly Smith, and goalie Ilya Sorokin ($8300), facing the Blue Jackets. Option #2 was to play EK65, then save on netminder with Ville Husso ($7000).  

Last week:

I've committed to report my results, but DO I HAVE TO?   I chose the Capitals and Oilers to win and score, and the Penguins against the Blues. I wasn't last in my DraftKings pool, but b-a-d.   Only way to go now is up. And again, bet only what you can easily afford, and save some cash for the kids' Halloween treats. 

Statistical fun:

I did some independent research – yes, I found that Vegas was off to a good start, and San Jose, not so much. Funny. BUT – we've all been conditioned to believe that the first goal scored in every game is of critical importance –  of 116 contests this season, the team that's scored first has won 66% of the time. However, I remember telling my youth (soccer) teams that it's the second goal that redefines each game…. and statistically I seem to have a point. For all games that HAD a second goal, regardless of the score situation – all except Ilya Sorokin's 1-0 shutout over Arizona –  the team scoring that second goal wins 75%. See data:

Winning team scores BOTH 1st + 2nd = 52 games

Only 1st goal = 25 games

Only 2nd goal = 34 games

Neither = 5 games

I'll watch this for another couple of weeks before deciding that this is "real." (It already passes that 95% statistical significance threshold.)

Have a great weekend, and good luck!