Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this week's article, I am going to bring up three players that are providing exceptional value for fantasy teams so far. I'm going to evaluate whether the paces they're putting up are sustainable or if you should temper expectations. In other words, whether you should hop on the wagon, or pump the brakes. I'll be taking a look at even strength stats separately from power play stats to do this.

William Nylander – 8GP, 6G, 6A, 12P, 4PPP, 34SOG, 6 Hits, 3 Blocks

82 game pace – 62G, 62A, 122P, 41PPP, 348SOG, 62 Hits, 30 Blocks

Nylander has arguably been the Maple Leafs' best forward so far. At even strength, he is shooting at a higher rate than he ever has in his career with 12.05 shots/60 minutes. This is actually in line with what he did near the end of last season and in the playoffs of last year, indicating to me that this is the new Willy Nylander.

His even strength shooting percentage of 16% is also a career high. If anything regresses, it will be this number, likely to hover around 12%. His on-ice shooting percentage of 12.6% is also a career high. This number will likely drop as well, indicating that his assists numbers will too. On the power play, Nylander's 13.4 shots/60 is right in line with the last few years. His 28% shooting percentage is a career high. He has shot above 20% on the power play in previous seasons (2019-2020 and 2021-2022), but this number likely won't continue to be in the high 20s.

His power play assists/60 numbers are also in line with what he has done in the past few seasons. His overall ice-time has increased, with around an extra 50 seconds per game at even strength compared to last year. This, combined with the increases in shots/60 is a great sign.

Willy has reached a new level of play this season and it should continue. His numbers are bound to regress slightly, but no one is expecting a 120-point season… 50 goals and 95 points is a very reasonable expectation for the season. New Nylander is for real, so HOP ON THE WAGON.

Dylan Larkin – 9GP, 4G, 11A, 15P, 10PPP, 34SOG, 5 Hits, 2 Blocks

82 game pace – 36G, 100A, 136P, 91PPP, 309SOG, 46 Hits, 18 Blocks

Larkin and the Detroit Red Wings have impressed everyone early on this season. It really comes down to the power play, which has a league-leading 12 goals on 35 opportunities. Larkin has been involved on 11 out of those 12 goals. It's not as if Larkin is getting much more ice time on the power play; he is averaging 3 minutes a night, lower than his average time last year.

Taking a look at per 60-minute numbers can show just how impressive he's been. On the power play, he has 26.12 shots/60. This amount is unheard of, with elite power play shooters like Alex Ovechkin hovering around 20 in his prime. This number will most likely regress to Larkin's recent numbers (15 shots per 60 last season).

Larkin has also scored on 25% of his shots. This number is high, but again not unheard of on power plays. The most concerning number is Larkin's on-ice shooting percentage of 31.25%; this is the efficiency of his teammates' shots when he is on the ice. Larkin has the benefit of having a new high efficiency shooter in Alex Debrincat, but he has never had an on-ice shooting percentage above 15%. This on-ice shooting percentage has resulted in an insane 15.24 assists per 60 for Larkin; his career high on the power play is 3.25.

Larkin's time on ice and his even strength numbers are in-line with his recent years, though he has actually been lacking in hits and blocks. His insane power-play efficiency will surely regress. Larkin is an elite fantasy asset, but I am telling you to PUMP THE BRAKES as this Detroit power play cannot continue to score at this pace all season. If you could trade him for a top 10-20 fantasy asset, I would pull that trigger.

Paul Cotter – 12% owned on Yahoo, 9GP, 2G, 3A, 2PPP 34 Hits, 4Blocks

82 game pace – 18G, 27A, 45P, 18PPP, 309 Hits, 37 Blocks

I wanted to include one player that is actually available in a lot of leagues and is a great waiver add. Cotter is the league leader in Hits so far. Cotter has been a peripheral stud in the past when he has gotten into game, but now he is actually playing in Vegas' top 9, on a line with Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone at even strength. It looks like he has secured a role for himself on this strong Vegas team. He is playing a sustainable 12.5 minutes a night at even strength and is getting around 30 seconds on the power play. He will continue to provide great value in peripheral stats, but he is actually putting up points as well.

Playing with talented forwards has resulted in a much better rate of assists per 60 minutes for Cotter. His even strength shooting percentage of 11% is actually low compared to his two previous seasons, so there is room for more goals. The 2 power play points so far is likely the only number that is not sustainable for Cotter, where he has converted on his only power play shot on goal. His on-ice shooting percentage on the power play is at 66%; another unsustainable feat. Even with just 5-8 power play points on the season, 35-40 points will be greatly valuable from someone who can put up over 300 hits. As long as he is getting this ice time, he is worth grabbing and holding in multicat leagues. HOP ON THE WAGON.

Hope you enjoyed! See you next week.

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