This week in the Wild West, I want to look at four players to buy low on and four players to sell high for fantasy. 

One thing to know about buy-lows and sell-highs is that if you are rostering these players, it doesn't mean you have to trade them or drop them. This is just information to show you where their value should be. They may be redlining in certain metrics that are unsustainable or they could be snakebitten when it comes to conversion even though everything looks good under the hood. If we understand where the player's true value lies, we can use that information to gain an advantage in trades. Anyways, enough preamble. Let's get to business.

Buy Lows

Anaheim Ducks – Trevor Zegras

Look at these numbers: From October 23 to October 30, Zegras is 28th in SOG/60, 18th in iCF/60 and 37th in iSCF/60 at all strengths. Now look at these numbers. In the same timeline, Zegras has one goal and zero assists in his last five games and two points since the start of the season. One of these things is not like the other.

I believe in this player but this start shouldn't be a surprise to seasoned fantasy managers. He was almost a holdout due to a contract dispute and then add to that, there is a new head coach in town in Greg Cronin, and it's no surprise that his scoring output has been low. He was also the victim of a third period benching a few games ago. Zegras's play at 5V5 has left something to be desired but the same can be said for his linemates Troy Terry and Leo Carlsson. His on-ice shooting percentage is comically low at 3.7% when it should be closer to 9%.

The Anaheim Ducks have the league's best schedule for streaming this season and Zegras is one of the premier options on this team. He is absolutely worth an add and is a target for me as a buy-low in trades. You can likely get him for a hot waiver wire pickup at this point. Book it. 

Arizona Coyotes – Barrett Hayton

Hayton has put up zeroes so far this season and it really doesn't make a bit of sense. He is currently second on the team in shots on goal, second on the team in individual Corsi for and first on the team in scoring chances for. Still… zero points.

For the week of October 30, Arizona has a great schedule with four games and I believe Hayton needs to be added to your rosters. His role is extremely secure as a top-line, top power-play guy and the underlying metrics all look good. He just isn't converting. His linemates Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz however, have been getting the job done and their line was one of the hottest in the league during the back half of last season. The points are going to come for Hayton and if you've got him, hold him. If he's on your waiver wire, pick him up. This is a player that has 50–60-point potential this year. 

Vegas Golden Knights – Jonathan Marchessault

With five points (3G and 2A) in nine games to start the campaign, Marchessault has been a bit of a letdown after an electrifying Stanley Cup run and Conn Smythe win. Expectations may have been high, but the underlying numbers tell a hopeful story. At all strengths, he is 55th in SOG/60, 48th in iCF/60 and 82nd in iSCF/60 and that includes the start of the year where he had one point in his first four games. 

He has continued right where he left off on the top-line and top power play and that won't be changing anytime soon. His play at 5V5 has been the issue so far. His shot rate per-60 is down to 8.35 from 9.37 in 2022-2023. The other metrics I like to look at, iCF/60 and iSCF/60 are down to almost career-worst numbers as well. The Golden Knights played a lot of hockey last season and while it hasn't affected their play on the ice, Marchessault individually hasn't been playing at the same level. This is a player I projected to have a 70-point season and I still believe he can get there.

The good thing here is that Vegas is winning and if Marchessault slumps a bit at the start, it can be absorbed by the team while he gets his legs under him. He does have four points in the five-game stretch from October 19 to 28, so the buy-low window may be closing shut. Throw some trades out there for this man and see what sticks. I don't believe he is being valued as the player he truly is.

St. Louis Blues – Jordan Kyrou

It has been a putrid start for the St. Louis Blues' offense. Period. Kyrou himself has had a slow start but it hasn't been for lack of trying. He appears to be the only Blues player who is willing to shoot the puck and it has been that way for a couple of seasons. 

The bad: Kyrou only has three points (1G, 2A) to show for his efforts so far and the Blues are the second lowest scoring team in the league. He is currently shooting 4.3% when his career average is 13.2%. His on-ice shooting percentage is a laughable 4.26% at 5V5. His linemates are not getting it done either.

The good: His SOG/60 at 5V5 sits at 11.26 which would be a career high. His iCF/60 and iSCF/60 are both at career-high levels as well. He is doing all the right things and is not getting rewarded for it. Plus, his TOI has increased this year by over a minute. 

In closing: He is shooting more and getting more scoring chances, and we can expect his linemates to regress positively as well. It is still early in the campaign and all signs point to an increase in production as his conversion metrics regress positively to the mean. This is a player I am still excited about and can be gotten very cheap in my opinion based on the Blues poor play. Trust players who shoot the puck. It seems simple and it is. This man generates a lot on his own and those pucks will start going in soon.

Sell Highs

Anaheim Ducks – Frank Vatrano

Vatrano is playing the start of the season like he has been shot out of a cannon. He's accumulated eight goals and one assist in eight games and that includes TWO hat-tricks. This is a player that has always had decent underlying metrics but has never gotten the ice-time needed to really pop. Well, that has all changed under new coach Greg Cronin. Vatrano has averaged 18:53 TOI which is two minutes more than he averaged all last season.

This all said, Vatrano's scoring efficiency is not sustainable. He is shooting a gaudy 27.6% and his on-ice shooting percentage is incendiary at 17.57% at all strengths. Those numbers will not continue and this man will fall back to earth. His value is extremely high right now so there is a potential to move him in a trade. Could you package Vatrano and another player to pick up someone who hasn't started off so well? Take a look at your league mates and see who is getting frustrated. If you can't move Vatrano, just enjoy the sweet production. If this deployment holds, he is in for a career season. 

Colorado Avalanche – Ryan Johansen

Johansen has been a popular add in fantasy, due to the fact that he is running with the first power-play unit and that he has been relatively successful there. Coming off of a 28-point season last year, my expectations of Johansen were not high and they still aren't. He has had a nice start here with four goals and five points in eight games although four of those points have been on the power play.

There are a couple of things that Johansen is doing that are unsustainable to me. First, he has almost doubled his SOG/60 at 5V5. He is currently 67th in the league in SOG/60 and that is not something we have come to expect from this player and I don't believe that in his 13th season in the league, he has all of a sudden changed the type of player he is. Those shots will regress back to the mean in my opinion. Second, his shooting percentage (17.4%) is much higher than his historic career numbers. Also, I am not convinced his role on the power play is secure all season and if he gets moved off of that unit, the production may go too.

See if you can find those Avalanche fans in your league and locate some value on their teams. I don't see Johansen as this volume shooter moving forward and I think a 50–55-point pace is where he will end up.

Minnesota Wild – Ryan Hartman

Hartman has had a great start, there is no question about that. He has tallied nine points in nine games (6G, 3A) but we need to keep in mind that five of those points came in one game. Not to take anything away from the man, but we can't expect those types of performances from him moving forward.

There have been some intriguing signs from Hartman under the hood. Since October 23, he ranks 45th in SOG/60, 28th in iCF/60 and 14th in iSCF/60. Add to that, his IPP is red-hot at 89% and he is shooting a ridiculous 31.3% at all strengths (For reference, last season he shot just over 10%). These will all likely regress closer to career numbers.

You may have noticed that Hartman was moved up to the first power-play unit in the Wild's last game and that definitely increases his value but keep in mind, Matt Boldy has joined the team on their road trip and is expected to be back in the lineup sooner rather than later. It is likely that Boldy bumps Hartman back down to the second unit so that dream may be over before it starts. This said, I still like the player and I think his role is secure on the team and I could absolutely see him matching his career-high season with 65 points, but he is not a point-per-game player.

Vegas Golden Knights – William Karlsson

Karlsson is currently tied for team lead in scoring with the Golden Knights. Who called that one going into the season? Karlsson's play at 5V5 has been stellar and he has really been driving his line's offense as evidenced by his 90% IPP. He is converting at high efficiency as well with a shooting percentage of 16.67%. What is not to like?

Well, his ATOI is down across the board and his actual shots-per-game are down as well from 2.0 last season to 1.9 this season. He has just been incredibly opportunistic and has capitalized on his chances. Add to this, that he isn't getting a sniff on the first power-play unit so we can't expect much production there. Karlsson has proven himself to be a very useful player at even strength including their most recent playoff run where he went off for 11 goals and six assists in 22 games with only two of those points coming on the power play.

That said, players that exhibit this level of efficiency should give you pause as a fantasy manager. If those pucks stop going in, now we have a player who isn't a volume shooter and doesn't generate that many scoring chances, who all of a sudden isn't scoring as much. This might be the high point of Karlsson's season in fantasy and I would expect regression from here on out. 

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That is it for this week's article. Thank you so much for reading. Please follow me on Twitter/X @BlakeCreamerAG and come and check out my fantasy hockey musings on the Apples and Ginos Fantasy Hockey Podcast. Celebrate your day. Bye for now.