Analytics Advantage: Fantasy Contributions without High Point Totals

Stas Pupkov

2023-11-02

The NHL season’s opening chapter is unfolding, and with it comes the opportunity for fantasy hockey managers to set the tone for their campaign. At this juncture, with the standings still taking shape, conventional wisdom leans heavily on the most apparent statistics: goals, assists, and goaltending victories. However, the astute fantasy manager is already looking deeper. This analysis presents an opportunity to gain a strategic edge by examining the less prominent, yet equally critical, elements of player performance. This early in the season, data can be as fluid as the gameplay, but therein lies the potential for foresight and planning. This report focuses on identifying players who, beyond the usual metrics, are accruing fantasy points through resilience and consistency—evidenced by their shots on goal, blocked shots, and physical engagement on the ice. While these stats may not shine as brightly in the highlight reels, they offer a steady foundation of fantasy points and are often indicative of players who contribute significantly to their teams’ success. As such, this analysis should be regarded as a guiding stick rather than a definitive indicator. It’s a means to gauge the underlying currents of player performance, to unearth potential, and to make early-season roster choices that could pay dividends in the long run. By recognizing these early patterns, managers can identify potential breakout candidates and under-the-radar stalwarts poised to deliver consistent value. This exploration goes beyond surface-level stats to spotlight the NHL’s unsung contributors—players whose impact might escape immediate notice but whose contributions are vital to the fabric of a winning fantasy team.

Scoring System Overview

While searching for a proper scoring system to use, and I came across one and found that it most likely reflects how most leagues are setup (Not using Yahoo, DraftKings, etc Default Scoring). Utilizing Orad’s Handsome Fantasy Hockey League’s scoring metrics:

  • Goals are allocated 6 points each
  • Assists are worth 4 points
  • Shots on goal and blocked shots are valued at 1.6 points apiece
  • Hits contribute 0.6 points each

This system underscores the importance of a player’s all-around game, rewarding not just scoring but also defensive plays and physical presence.

Identifying Stealth Contributors in Fantasy Hockey

As the season’s early games stack up, it’s the perfect time for fantasy managers to turn their attention to the quieter, yet impactful, stats that often go unnoticed. Shots on goal, blocked shots, and hits are not just arbitrary numbers; they are the bread and butter of hockey's unsung heroes. These players may not always light up the scoreboard, but they tirelessly influence the game’s flow and outcome.

Shots on Goal (SOG): A high SOG count signals offensive tenacity, with each shot potentially leading to rebounds and scoring opportunities.

Blocked Shots: These indicate defensive fortitude, where a player’s sacrifice can alter the tide of the game and bolster goaltending efforts.

Hits: A strong physical game measured in hits can intimidate opponents and energize a team, shaping the game’s dynamic.

For fantasy leagues that value these gritty efforts, these metrics are more than just numbers—they’re a testament to the players who can consistently contribute to both their real-world teams and fantasy rosters. As we delve deeper into the season, those who excel in these hard-nosed aspects of the game may very well become the cornerstone of your fantasy lineup.

The graph below illustrates the relationship between Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) and Games Played (GP). This analysis uncovers the stealth contributors who are accruing fantasy points through their enduring presence and effort on the ice, not merely through the flashier scoring statistics. These are the players who deliver a steady stream of fantasy points, providing a reliable foundation for your team’s success. Their ability to maintain this consistency early in the season is a promising indicator of their value as the games continue to accumulate.

As we can see, the consistent accumulation of points across games is evident for certain players, even if they aren’t the most prominent names in the scoring columns. This graph serves as a guiding stick for fantasy managers to identify and monitor these players, who may very well be the backbone of a winning fantasy hockey strategy.

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Leveraging Consistency for Fantasy Advantage

In fantasy hockey, consistent performers are often the unsung keystones of successful teams. These players may not always make the highlight reel, but they steadily accumulate fantasy points across various categories, proving indispensable to their managers. Focusing on fantasy points per game (FPPG) allows managers to recognize the worth of players who contribute through shots on goal, blocked shots, and hits. Such players offer a reliable source of points, helping to stabilize fantasy rosters through the inevitable ups and downs of a season. By incorporating these “workhorse” stats into their evaluation, fantasy managers can build a team that thrives on the collective effort of its players, not just the sporadic brilliance of its stars. As the season unfolds, it’s these consistent contributors who can help pave the way to fantasy dominance.

To further illustrate the impact of a player’s physical engagement on fantasy value, let’s turn our attention to our second graph. This visualization focuses on Fantasy Points Per Game derived solely from hits, blocked shots, and shots on goal—elements of the game that epitomize the hard-nosed nature of hockey.

What stands out is the group of players who may not frequently find the back of the net but are nonetheless stacking up fantasy points through their unwavering hustle and physical play. These are the players who embody the spirit of resilience, those whose consistent efforts across each game lay a solid foundation for fantasy success.

By leveraging these insights, fantasy managers can fortify their lineups with players whose relentless physical play often flies under the radar but is crucial to securing those incremental advantages that lead to victory. These graphs serve not only as a testament to these players’ contributions but also as a strategic guide for managers seeking to optimize their rosters for long-term success in the fantasy hockey arena.

The analysis presented here peels back the layers of hockey’s hustle stats, spotlighting the players who bring consistent value to their teams—and to fantasy rosters. In the long run, these insights, grounded in Orad’s league settings, can guide fantasy managers to make strategic picks that could be the linchpin for a winning season. It’s the players who excel in the trenches that often hold the key to fantasy glory.

Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick | Graphs crafted by @DH_staspup

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Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA
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  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
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KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency S.J Players
23.3 FABIAN ZETTERLUND MIKAEL GRANLUND WILLIAM EKLUND
19.7 ALEXANDER WENNBERG LUKE KUNIN BARCLAY GOODROW
16.4 TYLER TOFFOLI NIKOLAI KOVALENKO MACKLIN CELEBRINI

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