Capped: Time to Press the Panic Button on Slafkovsky, Gaudreau, and Rakell?

Andrew Santillo

2023-11-02

Hello and welcome back my Salary Cap-friendlies! What else is there to do on nights where there's two NHL games? Go over your fantasy teams and try and make improvements of course because watching to see how JT Miller and only JT Miller are playing is just sort of boring. Stay hot NHL schedule. On nights like these though, it can also be a time to reflect and maybe even panic a little on different players that might be on your roster because after all we're nine-ish games in, what better time to check in on the panic-meter for some players out there. (Cap data from CapFriendly.)

Juraj Slafkovsky – LW/RW – Montreal – 19 years old
Contract: $950k – Two years remaining

This is an interesting one here, in part because there wasn't much real expectation for Montreal coming into this season. Even with that in mind, noticeable improvement for players would be an encouraging sign and so far for Juraj Slafkosvsky that hasn't really been the case.

Is it time to totally hit the panic button here? If we're just looking at his numbers you could make a case that sure, maybe there's reason to raise an eyebrow. Slafkovsky has no points in eight games played and although this is only his second year in the league, his shooting appears to be down from where he was last season. So far on the season Slafkovsky just has one lone assist and that's a far stretch from where he ended Q1 of last season with five points. Again, not really setting the world on fire but I'm going to zag a bit on if it's time to panic here.

Like I mentioned earlier, this isn't exactly a Montreal club that most penciled in for a playoff spot before the season started and this is also a Montreal team that plays shorthanded often…and by often, I mean second-most so far in the NHL at 58 penalties called against them. It's hard to be a young player, veteran, or superstar and contribute on a club playing down a man more often than not. I do think just eye test there's times where I see it with Slafkovsky and whether or not it's enough to warrant going first overall, it's promising none the less.

For cap implications here's where we stand. Slafkovsky is in a batch of players on their ELC and like all of them, their parent club will have to make a decision probably two seasons before it's reasonable to make heads or tails on what a player is going to be. It's the life we live in the NHL, top round picks make the NHL earlier than before and right away the clock begins to tick. The cap hit now is obviously extremely reasonable for now but let's look at another top pick that might have fallen short of expectations thus far in Alexis Lafreniere. Now, I'm not comparing player-to-player but production/skill etc, just the circumstance each found themselves in and there's some similarity here. Lafreniere was a top pick that has thus fall fallen short of where we might have projected, he'd be and because of that his first NHL contract outside of his ELC was a two-year $2.3M cap hit. If Slafkovsky follows along that path, there's a chance Montreal decides to do the same as New York. Give a shorter term "show-me" deal and see where each side is once the term is over. For fantasy any low dollar contract is easy to absorb but if we're not seeing production is that really a player that you'd want to have on your roster? I always say talent is tantalizing, especially with young players and if you're rostering Slafkovsky now I'm optimistic you're going to see some progression, but the question remains just how long you're willing to wait.

Johnny Gaudreau – LW – Columbus – 30 years old
Contract: $9.75 – Six years remaining, NMC until 2025-26, M-NTC, NMC 2026-'29

I took part in four drafts this season and in each one Johnny Gaudreau was right at the top of the player pool well after his average draft position had passed. Round by round he sat up at the top until finally someone in my league was either brave enough to take him or the possible value in the very late rounds was just worth taking a flyer on. We find ourselves now in the position I feel like we all thought we'd be in here, and that's panic time for Johnny Gaudreau.   

With just one point in the previous four games, it's fair to say that Gaudreau is nowhere near the fantasy player that we'd hope to start the season. On the outside just looking at the numbers from last season, 74 points in 80 games played is a fantasy season that I think everyone would take even if it is a far ways away from the 115 points in 2021-'22.

So, is it time to hit the panic button here? Well as far as the supporting cast around him I'll go maybe.  Outside of Boone Jenner (30), it's a pretty young Jackets club around him but that's also a young group with some talent at different spots. The issue here is the cap hit, taking on $9.75M for gaps in production is an issue. Prior to coming to Columbus, I thought his skating had looked the best it ever had, and I still think he can play at a high level even with a younger group around him. This could be a player to potentially bundle in a trade in your league if you're trying to move or match salary elsewhere.

Rickard Rakell – LW/RW – Pittsburgh – 30 years old
Contract: $5M – Five years remaining – M-NTC

I caught the tail end of Penguins/Ducks the other night and about three Penguins came to my mind as a panic button fantasy player. The deciding factor here was after someone in my main league tried to trade Rickard Rakell there were no takers, and he was outright dropped. Panic button, anyone?

It’s important to remember here that it's early but it's also important to remember that needs to help this Pittsburgh second line get going and thus far that has not been the case. In all Penguins lines that have played at least 30 minutes together this season, the second line has the lowest expected goals percentage of the bunch and on an individual level, Rakell is on the second Pittsburgh power play which is a big step down from the first unit.

This is one I'm worried about, eye test it looks like this line doesn't skate together well and at times it's Rakell that's slowing up the play. Give it that, he is shooting more than last season by shots on goal per 60, so maybe he's just been more unlucky than good? Thinking back to a comp like Matt Duchene two seasons ago in Nashville. At a $5M cap hit he's worth retaining on your roster and I don't think that there's a likelihood that he's moved off of the second line given Pittsburgh's lack of depth.

*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.

One Comment

  1. jasonkent24 2023-11-02 at 21:39

    This article is mislabeled…it features Gaudreau, not Jenner

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