Almost a month in, what have we learned about the beginning of this NHL season, and how can we use the information to our advantage (and make better wagers?)  Let's look at a few variables that we've been programmed into believing.

First, home teams win more. (My statistics are through Thursday.)  For this season, home teams have won 83, lost 58, and have 15 0TL. So it's true – to a point. But if this means you are betting on the home goaltender, that's only a 53% winning margin overall. You'd do better to just pick against the Sharks, and basically get your investment returned.  

Next, considering betting against the back-up goalie? (Ok, I've got to define the terms here – we're at basically just ten games in – if he didn't start his team's first game, he's the back-up.)  My calculation is that "backups" have started 103 times out of a possible 312, about 33%. They collectively have 53 wins of that 103 (51.5%). Not fair, you say? Then remove half-starters Jeremy Swayman and Logan Thompson, 10-for-10 combined, and the percentage is still 46%, a shaky place to hang your hat.

How about back-to-back percentages? Thus far, there have been 26 instances of a team having back-to-back games. On the front end, the combined records are 16-7-3, for a 61.5% win percentage. The second game – often deemed to be poison by oddsmakers – that "tired" team has had 12 victories (46%) and four overtime losses (15%). Not exactly the disaster you'd figured, huh?

What's my point here? Sports wagering is difficult, and no one promises the moon except in old Christmas movies. Team tendencies are only the past, and the "sure thing" has yet to be invented. 

Saturday's matchups:

The best game – Colorado Avalanche @ Vegas Golden Knights. Who wouldn't be looking at this matchup, and anticipating it all week? The last two Stanley Cup champions, the heavy-odds favorites in the Pacific and Central divisions, and two teams with a boatload of fantasy value. But hold on to your enthusiasm here. This game will have playoff intensity, spelled DEFENSE, so a 2-1 or 3-1 game isn't as juicy for the DraftKings lineup.  Pass. 

The Generation Gap – Columbus Blue Jackets @ Washington Capitals. The Jackets entered the 2023–24 season tied with Buffalo as the youngest roster in the NHL, while the Capitals were second only to the Pittsburgh Penguins in their maturity. Ok, ok, I'm one of those "mature" guys – spelled O-L-D just like Washington's roster. Nicklas Backstrom's apparent retirement, or "stepping away," does open a top-six spot for a faster skater, but Columbus could hold a big speed advantage in a 7 pm ET game tonight. Nope. It says here that Alex Ovechkin ($8100) awakens, and experience beats enthusiasm in the States' capital. Who feeds him? Money on Dylan Strome ($5000) to surface with power-play time in Backstrom's place. 

The Measuring Stick – Dallas Stars (7-1-1) @ Vancouver Canucks (7-2-1). The Canucks scored ten times against San Jose on Thursday, but how do they measure up when the opponent more resembles "Jaws" than those toothless Sharks? Following my own advice from above (visiting teams), I'd stack Roope Hintz ($6900) with Jamie Benn ($5000) and ageless Joe Pavelski (6000), although the threesome may not all fit under your fantasy "cap." In the Stars' last three games, Hintz has seven points and Benn has five. For value, consider Wyatt Johnston ($4200) who's quietly centering one of the best second lines in the West. 

And finally, the Racetrack – Florida Panthers @ Chicago Blackhawks. Has anyone else been expecting that offensive explosion from the Panthers? Carter Verhaeghe ($5800) is my pick to lead the scoring – in part, obviously, because I couldn't afford Matthew Tkachuk ($8000) into the lineup. Verhaeghe has just three goals, and is scoring on only 10% of shots, after 42 a season ago and with a shot percentage just over 15%. Tkachuk has sputtered out of the gate too, just a single goal, but on 39 shots. It's coming. Gustav Forsling ($3800) could see more power-play opportunity if Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($4500) isn't at 100% after the Charlie McAvoy (suspended) hit. And here's the reach – Anthony Stolarz ($8100) in net! The 29-year-old adds to the backup goalie statistics, as the Cats save Sergei Bobrovsky ($8300) for their return to south Florida.  

My lineup:

Centers Hintz and Strome, wings Ovechkin, Verhaeghe, and Benn, D-men Forsling and Ryan Lindgren ($3000) with his chance to shine in place of Adam Fox (LT-IR), netminder Stolarz, and utility player Phillip Danault ($4200), playing on a hot LA Kings team and facing back-to-back Philly. Yeah, I know what I said up top….  ((If Sergei Bobrovsky starts, sub Mason Lohrei ($2700) for Lindgren. Another defenseman with short-term opportunity and long-term potential.))

Last week:

Yes, I remembered to flip my goalie pick to Semyon Varlamov, and his shutout propelled me to a redemption, sort of.  $10 wagered, $12 back.  Still in red numbers for the season, but the hole isn't deep.  

Good luck, happy weekends to all, and REMEMBER THE TIME CHANGE TONIGHT!