Saturday’s Game Picks: Kings Find Gold

Flip Livingstone

2023-11-04

We're back, baby! Apologies for leaving all the degenerate (and regular) gamblers out there in the lurch with a lack of picks last Saturday. No stress, I'm back just in time to dive into an absolutely jack-packed NHL betting board featuring 15 games of action.

With the NHL about to hit the one-month mark on the 2023-24 campaign, we're starting to get a solid feel for how these clubs are built and who is on a positive trajectory and who's gearing up for a serious nosedive into the basement. Of course, there is still plenty of time for teams like the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames to turn it around, and conversely, more than enough games on the schedule for squads like the Boston Bruins or upstart Arizona Coyotes to slip.

However, the point I am trying to drive home here is, from a betting standpoint, the next few weeks are the perfect time to build up your NHL bankroll for the tougher stretches of the hockey betting calendar, like the post-Christmas break or even the stretch ahead of the trade deadline.

A number of juicy matchups await this evening, including an early Western Conference Final preview between two Stanley Cup-caliber clubs in the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights, a juicy showdown featuring two Eastern Conference offensive powerhouses in the Maple Leafs and Sabres, and of course, don't sleep on these Vancouver Canucks, who play host to another Cup threat in the Dallas Stars.

Do your research, pick your spots, and let's get this paper. Good luck today and enjoy the games.

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2023-24 Saturday Record – (Complete Daily Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks on X)

Gold: 0-2
Silver: 1-1
Bronze: 1-1
Side Bets (Located at the bottom of the article each week) : 4-2

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Gold Selection

L.A. Kings @ Philadelphia Flyers – Pick: Kings ML (-188)

First off, this Flyers group deserves a ton of credit and respect on its name. Not just for its overall strong early-season showing, but for putting up a seriously impressive 60-minute performance against a good Sabres team on Friday after losing No. 1 netminder Carter Hart to injury just a game previous. Things in Philly are definitely looking up, as a 5-5-1 start would indicate, but they're not a legit threat just yet. Not even close.
The Flyers are still an extremely young team who now have to contend with the goaltending duo of Cal Petersen and Samuel Ersson for the immediate future behind a group that has the fifth-worst power-play in the NHL (10.8%) and sits outside the top half of teams in penalty-kill proficiency (79.3%).

On the other hand the Kings are very much for real. Say what you will about the tandem of Cam Talbot and Pheonix Copley, L.A. is playing some of its best hockey I've seen in years and a big reason for that is actually the strong numbers from Talbot (5-2-1, 2.41 GAA, .915 SV.%).

The Kings are not only one of the most offensively talented and balanced forward groups in the NHL, but they also are one of the toughest to play against on the road, having not lost a single game away from Crypto.Com Arena this season. More impressively, perhaps, are the teams they've dealt with on the road, taking two points against the likes of such playoff-ready franchises as the Minnesota Wild, Winnipeg Jets, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Ottawa Senators.

Only the Canucks have scored more goals this campaign than the Kings and this is a group really finding its groove at both ends of the rink right now. Let's ride with both of those angles against a Philly squad on the second night of a back-to-back without their No. 1 goaltender.

Kings take this one for my Gold Pick of the evening.

Silver Selection

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators – Pick: Over 6.5 (-134)

There is a lot of noise coming out of the Nation's Capital in Ottawa – none of it has to do with anything positive.

Not only does this franchise find itself embroiled in a number of different distracting off-ice storylines – from Shane Pinto's suspension, to losing a first-round draft pick for the Evgenii Dadonov debacle, to former GM Pierre Dorion being relieved of his duties – the on-ice product finds itself sitting in last in the increasingly-tough Atlantic Division. Why even touch this scenario from a betting perspective, one might ask? The Lightning are looking pretty solid and the Sens are dealing with a number of different issues both on and off the ice.

Well, let's just say I have a really strong feeling that this is a tipping point moment for this Senators club, so expect them to come out and do everything they can to blow the doors off the Lightning early and often. I also predict both teams to click on the offensive end in this matchup from start to finish. Lastly, the only meeting between these two earlier this season went Over the total and in fact, the total has gone Over the number in eight of Tampa Bay's last 11 trips to Ottawa.

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Let's keep this one short and sweet. Ottawa has a lot to prove and a lot of doubters to silence and the recent head-to-head stats tell us to expect fireworks on the offensive end. That's more than good enough for me to ride with the Over in this spot for my Silver selection on this fine Saturday of NHL betting action.

Bronze Selection

Auston Matthews Anytime Goal (-120)

It hasn't exactly been a smooth ride for either the Toronto Maple Leafs or Buffalo Sabres to kick-off this NHL campaign. Both squads have faced adversity and injuries and both are unexpectedly having their own issues scoring goals. However, there is no denying this QEW rivalry is one renewed with restored expectations and of course, elevated on-ice competition.

Straight up and down this is a tough spot for the Sabres. Not only are they dealing with recent injuries to goaltenders Devon Levi and more recently Eric Comrie, but they're on the second half of a back-to-back after being dealt with Friday night by the Flyers to the tune of a 5-1 letdown that saw Buffalo go scoreless on the power-play, generating only one goal on 22 shots the entire night.

As for Matthews, sure, he's slowed his goal production since the torrid six-goal start over his first two games, but you can't help but feel he's about to go on a heater. His quick release is elite and his shot is the best in the game – when both are on point, he is really hard to stop from any angle on the ice.

Matthews' put up one goal, one assist, five shots on net, and five blocked shots in over 21 minutes of ice time on Thursday against the Bruins. However, it's how lethal his shot looked combined with his overall swagger that has me fired up to be backing Matthews in this spot for an anytime goal against a Sabres unit that's allowed the seventh-most this season (34).

In 22 regular-season games against Buffalo in his career, No. 34 owns a total of 13 goals and 10 assists. He pushes that to 14 tonight, good for my Bronze Pick of the night.

Side Bets

Buffalo Sabres @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Pick: Under 7.5 (-230)
Colorado Avalanche @ Vegas Golden Knights – Pick: Under 6.5 (-140)
Calgary Flames @ Seattle Kraken – Pick: Kraken ML (-115)

Flip Livingstone is an NHL betting and fantasy hockey writer and podcast host with experience at outlets such as theScore NHL, Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on X @Flips_Picks.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 18 - 19:11 PHI vs COL
Nov 18 - 19:11 BOS vs CBJ
Nov 18 - 19:11 MTL vs EDM
Nov 18 - 20:11 DAL vs ANA
Nov 18 - 21:11 UTA vs WSH
Nov 18 - 22:11 S.J vs DET

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
OLEN ZELLWEGER ANA
MARTIN NECAS CAR
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL
JAKE WALMAN S.J
JASON ROBERTSON DAL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JACOB FOWLER MTL
KEVIN LANKINEN VAN
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD S.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CBJ Players
19.6 DMITRI VORONKOV SEAN MONAHAN KIRILL MARCHENKO
17.2 KEVIN LABANC SEAN KURALY ZACHARY ASTON-REESE
13.1 COLE SILLINGER ADAM FANTILLI YEGOR CHINAKHOV

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