Top 10 Goalie Stories So Far
Tom Collins
2023-11-06
It’s no secret that netminders can make or break your fantasy season.
Last year, for example, using later-round picks on Linus Ullmark, Jeremy Swayman and Vitek Vanecek probably won plenty of championships. Meanwhile, using high selections on Jacob Markstrom, Jack Campbell and Sergei Bobrovsky probably sunk a lot of championship hopes.
Of course, league size, number of goalie categories and number of goaltenders rostered will impact the importance of your netminders. If you’re in a 12-team league with three netminder positions per team and you count five goalie categories versus six skater categories, you’re better off taking top goalies early.
If you’re in a 10-team league with one goalie spot and only three goalie cats versus eight skater cats, your goalies are not as important and you can almost ignore them completely.
Even in points-only pools, the top goalies in many fantasy leagues will reach the 100-point plateau. In one of my points-only keep leagues, Alexandar Georgiev and Jake Oettinger both cracked the 100-point plateau last year, making both more valuable than Mitchell Marner, Jack Hughes and Tage Thompson.
NHL teams are only about 10 games into the season, but we’re starting to see trends in usage, and we are getting a pretty good idea of which netminders are ones to acquire in fantasy leagues and which ones to stay away from. Some trends are just continuing from last year (Swayman and Ullmark trading starts is a big one).
Below are the top 10 netminder stories so far this season, both good and bad.
10. Joseph Woll
Woll has been one of the most popular pickups over the last couple of weeks, but he’s been struggling after his initial buzz. After Ilya Samsonov allowed three goals on four shots against Tampa Bay on October 21, Woll was called into action and went on to win that game. He got the next two starts, winning each game while allowing one goal in each contest. In his last two starts, it hasn’t been as good. He lost both games and allowed nine goals on 67 shots. While Samsonov has also lost both of his last two starts, he allowed only five goals on 64 shots. This could be a see-saw battle for the rest of the season.
Even though his numbers may not show it, Markstrom is one of the few Flames playing well this season. But even a great goalie on an awful team is going to struggle. Markstrom this season is 1-6-1 with a 3.03 GAA and a 0.897 SV%. However, he’s allowed three goals or fewer in five of his eight starts. Maybe the best indicator for Markstrom this season is the number of games played. Last year, the idea was that Dan Vladar was going to get at least one start per week (an idea noted by then-head coach Darryl Sutter early in the season). There seems to be no such plan this year, as Markstrom has started eight of Calgary’s first 11 games.
Anyone who followed the zero-goalie rule and snagged Binnington late has to love his start this year. I am one of those. In one roto league, I decided to focus on forwards and defensemen early in the draft, and only look for saves from my netminders, basically punting wins and goals against average (My goalies in that league are Binnington, Karel Vejmelka, Elvis Merzlikins and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen). In that league, I am third in saves and goals against average, and tied for fifth in wins. Binnington’s resurgence has gone a long way to that. He has a 3-3-1 record with a 2.38 GAA and .924 SV%. That’s more than a full goal less per game this year than a season ago, and his best numbers since his rookie campaign in 2018-19. Something to keep in mind when looking at his numbers is that the Blues have only scored 1.68 goals per game when Binnington has been in net, meaning the offense hasn’t been there for him yet.
I touched on Campbell last week in my Top 10 players to be worried about. It’s only become more worrisome since then. Stuart Skinner started three straight games for the Oilers, going 1-2 with two quality starts. Campbell finally got his opportunity Saturday against Nashville, where he promptly let in five goals on 34 shots. He’s been brutal this year, and the only bright side is that the Oilers have a game this week against the Sharks. Maybe the Oilers give him the easy win against the league’s worst team. If not, it’s going to be a tough slog the rest of November, as seven of their next nine games are on the road. The only bright side for Campbell is that Skinner is also struggling, with one of the worst save percentages in the league.
The Wild netminder looked to be poised to finally become the team’s number one netminder, but early-season struggles have put a halt to those plans, not to mention frustrating fantasy general managers. Gustavsson has two wins in seven games, to go along with a 4.89 GAA and a 0.871 SV%. That goals against average is the worst among any netminder with at least four games, which is pretty awful considering San Jose has allowed 10 goals in back-to-back games. Since his opening night shutout, he’s allowed at least four goals in every game, except for Saturday night, when he allowed three goals on four shots and was pulled after seven minutes. This should allow Marc-Andre Fleury to usurp some games.
5. Karel Vejmelka and Connor Ingram
It’s been almost a perfect split of starts between Vejmelka and Ingram this year. Vejmelka has started six games, but has zero wins in his last four, while giving up at least four goals in each of the last three contests. Aside from one game where he gave up three goals in under 13 minutes and was pulled, Ingram has been excellent this year. He has picked up wins in three of his other four starts, and has allowed two or fewer goals in all of them.
4. Lukas Dostal
Don’t look now, but Dostal looks like he’s about to take over the Ducks’ starters’ duties. Before Sunday night’s action, he had started three of the Ducks’ last five games (winning all three) and came in in relief during one of those games he didn’t start (and won that one as well) when John Gibson suffered an upper-body injury. On the season, before Sunday’s game, Dostal was 5-1 with a 2.80 GAA and .920 SV%, whereas John Gibson is 1-3 with a 2.82 GAA and .902 SV%.
3. Adin Hill
What potential Stanley Cup hangover? Vegas is in another stratosphere right now and seemingly cannot lose. They destroyed Colorado 7-0 on Saturday night, with Hill getting the 41-save shutout. That was his first shutout since March 12, 2022. On the season, Hill is 6-0-1 with a 1.81 GAA and a .938 SV%. However, Vegas is alternating starts between Hill and Logan Thompson (Hill has back-to-back starts only once this season, none for Thompson). And it seems to be working, as Thompson, before Sunday’s action, is 5-0-0 with a 2.16 GAA and a 0.931 SV%.
2. Cam Talbot
It’s going a little underrated, but Talbot is putting up a Vezina-calibre campaign early this season. His six wins are tied for the league lead and his 229 saves are third. Among netminders with at least five games, Talbot places in the top 10 in both goals against average and save percentage. He’s 4-0-1 in his last five games and has allowed two goals or fewer in four of those contests. He’s one of only 11 netminders that have five-plus starts with a save percentage of at least .920. He’s started eight of the Kings’ 11 games so far. This is all pretty impressive considering many went into the season not knowing what the goalie situation would be in L.A. As a side note, he was still available in 34 percent of Yahoo leagues as of Sunday night.
Demko has been otherworldly to start this season, easily the best netminder for fantasy hockey this year. He has a 6-2 record with a 1.55 GAA and .947 SV%. While it helps that the Canucks have scored 4.47 goals per game while Demko is in net (second highest among anyone with four games played), his own numbers put him up near the top of almost every statistical category. Going into Sunday’s action, Demko’s six wins are tied for tops, as are his two shutouts. His save percentage is third, his goals against average is fourth, and his 215 saves are ninth.